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Aaron Rodgers Player Prop Picks, Predictions Week 15: Rodgers Has Something to Prove

Jon Metler

Last Updated: December 19, 2022 11:25 AM EST • 3 min 7 sec read.

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers looks to pass during a game against the New England Patriots at Lambeau Field.
Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers looks to pass during a game against the New England Patriots at Lambeau Field. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images via AFP.

Aaron Rodgers and the disappointing Green Bay Packers are under the Monday Night Football spotlight and looking to keep their slim playoff hopes alive in Week 15. Read on for our Aaron Rodgers player prop picks for Monday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.

At the beginning of the season, imagine if you told everyone that a game between the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams in Week 15 would have essentially no impact on the NFC playoff picture. Both teams are struggling, but that doesn't matter to us, we are here to bet on player props.

While Aaron Rodgers is no doubt motivated to bring the Packers to the playoffs, Green Bay is under pressure to turn the offense over to Jordan Love. How will Rodgers perform on Monday Night Football with Love pushing the Packers to make him the starter?

Here are our best Aaron Rodgers player prop picks for the Rams vs. Packers Week 15 matchup (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Rams vs. Packers Picks, Rams vs. Packers SGP Picks, and Monday Night Football Prop Picks.

Aaron Rodgers Player Prop Picks for Week 15

  • Under 227.5 passing yards (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Under 21.5 passing completions (-125 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Under 0.5 interceptions (-184 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Rams vs. Packers Odds

Aaron Rodgers Player Props

Under 227.5 passing yards (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's always important to check the weather before betting on passing props for games being played at Lambeau Field, and we're in the clear on that front for Monday Night Football. The weather will be cold, but there will be no precipitation, and most importantly, the wind will only be 4 mph.

Since this line is very close to Rodgers' projection for passing yards, where you purchase this prop will be the most important part of your wager. As Rodgers is projected to throw for 226 yards on Monday, the Under on the total of 227.5 should be trading at -123 instead of -105. There is a 3.94% advantage in the implied probability between where we have it priced and what DraftKings has it trading for.

BetMGM offers a higher total (-229.5 at -120) and FanDuel offers a higher total (228.5 at -110) but DraftKings offers the lowest juice at -105, which makes it the best bet for Under bettors. As the difference between the total yards is minimal, the difference in juice is a more significant factor when determining which line to bet on. 

Under 21.5 passing completions (-125) ⭐⭐⭐

This prop already accounts for Rodgers working from a positive game script, as the Packers are 7.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football. Although it's been accounted for, I still like this angle because I predict a Packers victory by much more than 7.5 points and I expect a heavy dose of the run game early on. 

This line is very tight, so where you buy this prop will be critical to maximizing your edge. Rodgers is projected to complete 20 passes on Monday, therefore the Under should trade at -160, not -125. 

PointsBet offers the Under at 21.5 (-125) and is the best place to purchase this prop. For the completions total, we do have a consensus number, as all sportsbooks are trading it at 21.5. As a result, our best price is determined by the sportsbook with the lowest juice, which is PointsBet. Your expected value would decrease from 10.8% to 6% if you bet this prop at Caesars (-139) rather than PointsBet. 

Under 0.5 interceptions (-184) ⭐⭐⭐

There are still four games left in the season and Rodgers has thrown nine interceptions, his highest total since the 2010 season. Rodgers has been forced to take chances as the Packers have trailed several games and have continued to play from behind. 

This prop play corresponds with how I would bet the game and that's by betting the Packers -7.5. The Packers will run the ball a lot more and Rodgers will take fewer chances in the passing game if he's working from a positive game script. Rodgers not throwing an interception should trade closer to -225 than -184. 

With the Under trading at -184, Caesars is offering the best price on this line. At FanDuel, this prop trades at -205, while at DraftKings, it trades at -195. While I was writing this article, the DraftKings line moved from -180 to -195, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Caesars line moved as well. 

Aaron Rodgers player prop picks made 12/19/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.