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NFL Against the Spread Odds, Picks, Predictions Divisional Round: Can Niners Continue Success At Home?

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: January 18, 2023 11:05 AM EST • 3 min 14 sec read.

The San Francisco 49ers covered 12 of their last 14 games at Levi’s Stadium, but they’re just 3.5-point favorites for Sunday night’s clash with the Dallas Cowboys. See who we’re backing in our Divisional Round against-the-spread picks based on the top NFL odds.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers all advanced to the NFL playoffs' second round with wins last week. Meanwhile, the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles enjoyed first-round byes.

Here are our best NFL against-the-spread Divisional Round picks (odds via BetMGM, PointsBet and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and Best NFL Betting Sites.

NFL Against the Spread Divisional Round Picks

  • Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110 via BetMGM ) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (-110 via PointsBet) vs. Buffalo Bills ⭐⭐⭐
  • San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-104 via FanDuel) vs. Dallas Cowboys ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

NFL ATS Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jacksonville authored the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history last week against the L.A. Chargers, rallying from a 27-0 deficit to edge L.A. 31-30 on a last-second field goal. That makes it easy to overlook another mediocre performance from Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who's thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns (five) over Jacksonville’s past four games.

It also leaves the Jags vulnerable to an emotional letdown against a Chiefs team coming off a bye. Kansas City often plays down to its competition, covering just five of its last 14 games as a favorite, but QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs should be fully motivated to keep their foot on the gas after blowing a 21-3 lead in their last playoff game, a 27-24 loss to Cincinnati in the 2022 AFC Championship.

KC is a consensus 8.5-point favorite at all recommended sportsbooks, although you’ll pay a few extra cents of juice (-112) if you back the Chiefs at FanDuel, and I’m comfortable laying up to -10 with the AFC’s top seed at home.

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Anything over a field goal looks like value on a Bengals team that owns the AFC's longest winning streak, claiming its ninth straight victory in a hard-fought 24-17 win over the Baltimore Ravens. Bengals QB Joe Burrow hasn’t put up big numbers recently and might not have much time behind a banged-up O-line, but Cincinnati’s defense held four of its last five opponents under 20 points and should keep the Bengals within striking distance throughout.

Buffalo’s defense, meanwhile, is a concern after giving up 31 points to third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson and the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo escaped with a 34-31 victory as two-touchdown favorites, falling to 1-5 ATS in its last six games at Highmark Stadium — a lone cover coming against the New England Patriots, when the Bills returned two kickoffs for TDs. As explosive as Bills QB Josh Allen is, he continues to make costly mistakes, turning the ball over three more times against the Phins.

Buffalo is a 5-point favorite at most sportsbooks, but Cincy bettors can grab an extra half-point of value at PointsBet or Caesars, where the Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs. If you like the Bills, FanDuel and DraftKings both offer Buffalo at -5.

San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

It’s not often you get a chance to back the 49ers at this short of a price at home, and with good reason. San Francisco is a sizzling 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games at Levi’s Stadium, where the Niners were favored by more than a field goal in all but three of those contests. QB Brock Purdy and the 49ers also showed excellent composure in last week’s wild card win over the Seattle Seahawks, overcoming a 17-16 halftime deficit to blow out the Seahawks 41-23.

Dallas was dominant in a 31-14 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Monday, but how much can you take away from a blowout win over an 8-9 squad? Stopping San Francisco’s attack is a completely different animal for a Dallas D that allowed 34 points to the Eagles and 40 to the Jags over the past month. The Cowboys also have serious concerns about their kicking game after Brett Maher missed four extra points against the Bucs.

If you bet on the 49ers, grab them at FanDuel where you can lay just over a field goal at -104 odds. However, I’m still comfortable laying up to 5.5 points with a San Fran squad that saw nine of its last 10 victories come by six or more.

NFL against-the-spread picks made 1/18/2023 at 1:39 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.