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NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 9

Jon Metler

Last Updated: November 6, 2022 2:59 AM EST • 3 min 62 sec read.

NFL ATS power rankings
Our NFL power rankings order teams by who's most likely to cover the spread.

Lower the Jolly Roger, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are headed for a disappointing season, right? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite against-the-spread picks for Week 9.

For the first time in four weeks, a new team occupies the top spot in our NFL against-the-spread power rankings, and who it is may surprise many. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Seattle Seahawks and quarterback Geno Smith, who held this position for three consecutive weeks and went 3-0 against the spread during this timeframe.

The following are the power rankings of my favorite point spread picks for Week 9 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Tuesday, Oct. 31 at 10 a.m. ET).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!

NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings

10. Chargers -3 (-105 via BetMGM) at Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are leading the NFC South and are on track to exceed their win total from the beginning of the season, but don't fool yourself; they still have some serious holes on this team. The Falcons rank dead last in pass defense and just allowed Carolina Panthers quarterback P.J. Walker to throw for 317 yards. This wager becomes substantially more valuable if you can find the Chargers trading as 2.5-point favorites instead of 3 points, and I believe you will be able to do so later in the week.

9. Texans +13.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Eagles

Since the Philadelphia Eagles have such a high public perception, sportsbooks are posting higher spreads on them than they should be to help combat liabilities. Even though the Eagles are a much better team than the Houston Texans, I do not have them priced 13.5 points better than the Texans, particularly on the road.

8. Jaguars +1.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Raiders

There is no way you can make the Las Vegas Raiders 1.5-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road when they were the favorites against the New Orleans Saints and got shut out. I believe that the Jaguars should be the favorites against the Raiders; however, I have not had the best read on this Jaguars team so far this season. Numbers suggest that the Jaguars should rank higher in the power rankings, but unfortunately, the numbers have favored the Jaguars all season, which has not translated into winning bets on Sundays.

7. Seahawks +2.5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Cardinals

Did you think I was going to exclude my favorite team this season, the Seattle Seahawks, from this power ranking? For the past three weeks, the Seahawks held the No. 1 spot in my power rankings, and they cashed the ticket each time. Although I still favor the Seahawks, the edge in their numbers is rapidly decreasing as more people become convinced that Smith is a solid NFL quarterback in 2022. The Seahawks would rank much higher in my power rankings if I could purchase them at +3, but that is unlikely to happen this week.

6. Lions +3.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Packers

With a 3-5 record on the season and, more importantly, a 3-5 record against the spread, the Green Bay Packers continue to struggle to generate any offensive production. Since I make the Packers only 2.5-point favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions, you are getting pretty good value on the home side with the spread trading at Packers -3.5. While I would love to be able to buy this at Lions +4, I suspect it will begin trending the other way shortly and you will lose your ability to buy the hook at the key number of 3 points.

5. Bengals -8 (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook) vs. Panthers

These last two weeks, the Panthers have tricked us into believing that they might not be as bad as they seem with a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and an overtime loss to the Falcons. Do not fall victim to this trap, their intentions are clear following the firing of head coach Matt Rhule and the trade of franchise cornerstone Christian McCaffrey. As part of their plans to tank for a quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Panthers sent several scouts to watch college quarterbacks CJ Stroud and Will Levis over the weekend. The Cincinnati Bengals are a team that is capable of running up the score on the Panthers, which I predict will happen in Week 9.

4.  Dolphins -4.5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Bears

Whenever quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is leading the offense, the Miami Dolphins become a much better team. In games in which Tagovailoa has started and completed, the Dolphins are now 5-0 on the season. I believe the Dolphins should be trading closer to 6-point favorites over the Chicago Bears, which is why they are ranked at No. 4 in my Week 9 power rankings. There is an excellent chance that the Dolphins will move from 4.5- to 5-point favorites very quickly.

3. Commanders +3.5 (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook) vs. Vikings

Taylor Heinicke as the starting quarterback makes the Washington Commanders a better football team and I don't think it's even up for debate. I make the Minnesota Vikings 2-point favorites against the Commanders on the road, which makes the opening line of Commanders +3.5 very appealing. In addition to purchasing the Commanders at the key number of 3 points, I also receive the hook. While the Vikings are 6-1 on the season, I think it is a very suspect 6-1 record, and this is coming from a Vikings fan.

2. Titans +11 (-107 via PointsBet) at Chiefs

Even though I am not a huge fan of the Tennessee Titans, this is way too many points and there is another reason why I like the Titans in this spot. In light of the reports coming out of the Titans' camp last week, I believe QB Ryan Tannehill will play this week. As soon as this is confirmed, the Titans' +11 spread will be gone forever.

1. Buccaneers -2.5 (-110 via PointsBet) vs. Rams

The Buccaneers occupying the No. 1 spot in the power rankings might seem risky, but I believe we have officially reached the low point of their season. This allows you to get a better number than you should when they host the Los Angeles Rams. With the spread still below the key number of 3 points, I like the Buccaneers in this spot. As the week progresses, I believe that the Buccaneers will easily move to become 3- to 3.5-point favorites.

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NFL against-the-spread picks made 10/31/2022 at 11:56 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.