Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions Week 11: Sunday's Best TD Odds & Picks
My favorite NFL market to bet on during the 2024 season has undoubtedly been anytime touchdown scorers, and we continue to share our favorite TD picks each week.
Admittedly, it's becoming more difficult to find value in this market because the best NFL betting sites are aggressively adjusting the odds on players who are more likely to find the end zone. Therefore, we need to dig deep to search for players with strong touchdown projections but plus-money prices.
We've identified three such players for Week 11, and our Sunday Night Football pick is still a strong bet despite trading at minus money.
We start with two 1 p.m. ET games, targeting players in the Vikings vs. Titans and Jaguars vs. Lions clashes.
Then we move to San Francisco to attack very favorable odds on one of the 49ers' most dangerous players against the Seattle Seahawks.
Finally, we look at the Sunday Night Football odds to find our favorite anytime touchdown scorer prediction for the weekend's prime-time main event.
These picks are part of our NFL Week 11 predictions, which offer bettors a comprehensive look at all of the action.
Anytime touchdown scorer picks Week 11
Our NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the latest odds among the legal sportsbooks in your region on each of these picks.
Vikings vs. Titans anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Aaron Jones, Vikings, RB ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%
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Vikings running back Aaron Jones has gone three straight games without a touchdown, but that hasn't been due to a lack of volume. Jones has recorded 19-plus touches in each of those contests, and I'm willing to bet he experiences some positive regression in the TD department during Week 11.
First, there's the matchup. The Tennessee Titans present a favorable opportunity for running backs when it comes to finding the end zone. They've allowed six running back scores in their last four games. That's likely why Jones' TD projection is a very solid 0.60.
"Fair" odds based on that projection would be closer to the -115 to -120 range, so we're getting solid value through this +110 price at bet365.
Jaguars vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions, WR ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown ever not score a touchdown?
The Detroit Lions wide receiver has reached paydirt in seven straight games, and yet we're still somehow getting plus-money odds for him to make it an eighth in a row.
St. Brown is getting one of the best receiving TD projections this week at 0.58, below only Davante Adams and Ja'Marr Chase. Similar to Jones, St. Brown's TD prop should probably be trading closer to -115 based on that projection.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a solid matchup for wide receivers after allowing 10 touchdowns to the position this year. Look for St. Brown to make that 11 (or more).
Seahawks vs. 49ers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Deebo Samuel, 49ers, WR ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +150 via bet365 | Implied probability: 40%
We're taking advantage of the fact that all of the attention - both in this game and from our best sports betting sites - is on 49ers superstar running back Christian McCaffrey after he made his return last week.
However, we won't make the same mistake by forgetting about Deebo Samuel, one of the league's most versatile and dangerous players.
As is always the case with Samuel, he's not limited to scoring through the air like many wide receivers. Because of Samuel's usage in the run game, he can score when the team gets close to the end zone in ways other wideouts simply don't.
That versatility has led to Samuel's touchdown projection being 0.52, the fourth-best among wide receivers this week.
Therefore, a fair price for a Samuel touchdown is around +120. That makes these +150 odds an absolute steal.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Sunday Night Football
Bengals vs. Chargers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: J.K Dobbins, Chargers, RB ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%
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We cap off our anytime touchdown scorer predictions with the only minus-money selection of the bunch. I usually don't like betting on touchdowns at such a steep price, but this is the best bet for the Sunday Night Football game.
Dobbins failed to find the end zone last week after scoring twice in Week 9 and once in the prior game. He gets a tough matchup on Sunday night in terms of his production from a yardage standpoint, but the Bengals have allowed running backs to score in all but two games this season.
The tailback's TD projection is 0.73 as a result, making him one of the most probable players on Sunday's slate to find the end zone. Comparatively, Chase Brown's projection is 0.64, and he's trading at -145 through DraftKings.
Brown is trading at a slightly better price than Dobbins. But his projection is only 0.59, making those -110 odds less valuable.
NFL betting odds pages
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