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Baker Mayfield NFL Player Prop Odds & Picks for Sunday Night Football: Week 16 vs. Cowboys

Philip Wood

Last Updated: December 22, 2024 11:07 AM EST • 3 min 40 sec read.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield calls a play against the Los Angeles Chargers, and we offer our top Baker Mayfield SNF player props.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield calls a play against the Los Angeles Chargers. Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea via Imagn Images.

Baker Mayfield looks to lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to their fifth consecutive win on the road against the Dallas Cowboys when these teams square off on Sunday Night Football (NBC/Peacock).

We're using the latest Sunday Night Football odds to make the best Baker Mayfield player prop picks, as his team is favored by four points for Sunday night’s 8:20 p.m. ET showdown at AT&T Stadium.

The Cowboys’ biggest weakness is their run defense, so if the Buccaneers can build a lead and rely on their run, Mayfield may throw less than usual. However, even in good matchups for the run game, the Bucs throw, as they have the third-most passing yards in the league this year.

We also discussed in our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction that we believe the home underdogs can keep it close, which is just a taste of all we offer with our NFL Week 16 predictions.

Baker Mayfield SNF player prop picks

NFL odds as of Sunday. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Baker Mayfield prop pick: Under 247.5 passing yards (-103 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Baker Mayfield prop pick: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Baker Mayfield prop pick: Under 32.5 pass attempts (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Baker Mayfield player prop odds

Baker Mayfield prop predictions

NFL picks made Sunday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Baker Mayfield Under 247.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐

Mayfield has thrown for at least 288 yards in three of his last four games. And yet, the Under is the right play this week.

The Cowboys are allowing just 219.9 passing yards per game this season, and if the Buccaneers get out to a lead, as our best sports betting sites expect they will, they’ll be able to rely on their rushing attack to exploit the Cowboys' true weakness.

Mayfield is averaging just over 258 passing yards per game. However, he’s gone Under this number in three of his last six, and in six total games this season. He’s been a boom-or-bust player, and in this matchup, he’s more likely to land in the low 200s rather than get more than 300 as he’s done four times this year.

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps that has this number below 247.5. At 242.5, you’d expect a better price for the Under, but BetMGM is offering just -115. Caesars is the only sportsbook with a price for the Under below -110.

Best odds: -103 via Caesars | Implied probability: 50.74%

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Baker Mayfield Under 1.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐

Mayfield has thrown seven touchdown passes in his last two games, which is the only reason that the Over is so heavily favored. While Mayfield has 32 touchdown passes this season, he’s thrown one or fewer in five games, including three of his last five.

The Cowboys are allowing a lot of touchdowns this season, but they are tied for 18th in the league in passing touchdowns allowed. Over the last three weeks, they’re allowing 1.3 per game. Meanwhile, their rushing defense is allowing 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game, which is the most in the NFL. That's why we're backing a rushing touchdown with our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys SNF prop bets.

All of our best sportsbooks are offering a price of +105 or worse. DraftKings and bet365 are offering +110, so wager at one of them.

Best odds: +110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Baker Mayfield Under 32.5 pass attempts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mayfield has attempted fewer than 33 passes in five of his last six games. The only time that he went Over 32.5 during that stretch, he threw the ball exactly 33 times.

The Cowboys are allowing the fifth-fewest pass attempts per game, and with the Buccaneers favored, I don’t understand why Mayfield would suddenly throw more than usual.

What makes this play so enticing is the price. While BetMGM has the Under set with a price of -135, Caesars is offering +100. That’s a 7.45% difference in implied probability. This number likely won’t move, but four of our sites with the best sportsbook promos have this set at -108, so get in at Caesars before the price gets more expensive.

Best odds: +100 via Caesars | Implied probability: 50.00%

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.