Baker Mayfield Player Prop Picks: Wild Card Weekend Predictions & Odds vs. Commanders
Though a high-scoring affair is expected between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers based on the game total at our best NFL parlay betting sites, a quick glance at the trends for Washington’s pass defense might suggest tough sledding lies ahead for Baker Mayfield.
But our Baker Mayfield player prop picks predict a strong day for the Tampa quarterback who already lit up Washington's defense earlier in the season.
The Buccaneers (-3) host the Commanders at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET (NBC). Both teams are long shots in the Super Bowl odds.
We're leaning toward the Commanders in our NFL playoff bracket predictions.
Baker Mayfield prop bets: Wild Card Weekend
NFL odds as of Sunday. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Baker Mayfield prop pick: Over 244.5 passing yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Baker Mayfield prop pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-168 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Baker Mayfield prop pick: Under 33.5 passing attempts (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Baker Mayfield Wild Card Weekend player props
NFL picks made Sunday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Baker Mayfield Over 244.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although Washington’s pass defense allows 189.5 passing yards per game, we’re not shying away from Baker Mayfield’s passing line in a game featuring a 50.5-point total.
Playing weak opposing offenses has been giving Washington a chance to pad its stats. Plus, Mayfield already beat this line against Washington, throwing for 289 yards and four touchdowns during a Week 1 win over the Commanders. He's also cleared 244.5 passing yards 10 times this campaign.
Bettors gain an edge while playing this prop at FanDuel, where the line is 244.5 yards instead of the offerings between 248.5 and 251.5 yards at some of our other NFL prop betting sites.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-168) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Baker Mayfield has been rolling down the stretch, throwing for multiple passing scores in five consecutive games to round out the regular season.
Washington has been averaging right on this line, allowing 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. That number has been slightly higher on the road (1.6).
FanDuel’s odds of -168 lead to an implied probability of 62.69%. This is a line that Mayfield has exceeded in 12 of 17 outings this season (70.6%), so we’re willing to eat the juice on this prop as one of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions.
Best odds: -168 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 62.69%
Baker Mayfield Under 33.5 passing attempts (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While I expect an efficient and explosive effort from Mayfield, the props tied to his passing attempts volume are lofty, especially since the Bucs will surely try to establish the run against Washington’s poor ground defense.
Mayfield’s passing attempts prop sits between 32.5 and 33.5 across our best sportsbooks. Baker was batting around .500 in the first half of the season against this total. But he's cashed the Over just once over the last nine games.
That timeline almost perfectly lines up with when Bucky Irving began to increase his impact as a rusher for the Bucs. Washington’s defense has faced just 29.2 passing attempts per game, the second-fewest in the NFL.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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