Bears vs. 49ers Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction
The Chicago Bears battle the depleted San Francisco 49ers in an critical NFC matchup.
As part of our Week 14 NFL predictions, I make my best Bears vs. 49ers player prop picks for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX) game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
With running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out, the 49ers will turn to third-string running back Isaac Guerendo in this contest. What should we expect from him?
And despite all their injuries, the 49ers are still favored by 3.5. What does that mean for Bears’ quarterback Caleb Williams? And who is the most likely player to find pay dirt in this game?
Bears vs. 49ers NFL player prop picks: Sunday
Odds as of Saturday and subject to change.
- George Kittle touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer (+175 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Isaac Guerendo Over 71.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Caleb Williams Under 222.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Bears vs. 49ers touchdown prediction
George Kittle anytime touchdown scorer (+175) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +175 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 36.36%
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In a snowy game in Buffalo last week, Kittle finished with just one catch for seven yards. It was his least productive game of the year, but it was excusable due to the weather.
This week, the weather will play no part in the game. And Kittle, who has scored in seven of 10 games this year, will find the end zone again.
With the offense depleted with injuries, Kittle is this team's most reliable touchdown threat. He’s scored eight this season, twice as many as any other player on the team. The Bears are allowing 0.9 passing touchdowns per game, but they have given up three touchdowns to tight ends this season.
BetMGM lists this price at +105, which projects a nearly 50% chance that Kittle will score in this game. FanDuel offers +175, implying a 14% worse chance of Kittle scoring than BetMGM.
Best Bears vs. 49ers prop picks
Isaac Guerendo Over 71.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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With McCaffrey and Mason out, the 49ers will turn to Guerendo to carry the load in the backfield. While I’d normally avoid taking a third-string running back to do anything, Guerendo has already proven himself this year. He’s carried the ball at least 10 times in two games. He rushed for at least 85 yards in both contests.
The Bears are allowing 135.1 rushing yards per game, the eighth-most in the NFL. Last week, they allowed both Detroit Lions running backs—Jahymr Gibbs and David Montgomery—to rush for over 85 yards, and the week before, Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones went for 106.
The total for this prop ranges from 71.5 to 73.5. Not only is bet365 one of the sportsbooks offering 71.5, but it also has the best price of -110. Compare that to the -128 that Caesars is asking for Over 73.5, and it’s not hard to see the value in this play.
Caleb Williams Under 222.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Williams has thrown for over 231 yards in three consecutive games, and he looked fantastic in the second half of last week’s game against the Lions.
Unfortunately for Williams, while his last three opponents all rank 22nd or worse in passing yards allowed, the 49ers rank fourth. They’re allowing just 190.0 passing yards per game.
Williams has also been inconsistent. He has six games with fewer than 222 yards, and in the first half of last week’s game, he had just 34. The 49ers’ defensive unit is giving up just 167.7 passing yards per game over their last three, so Sunday could be a long day for the rookie.
All of our best sports betting sites have the number set at 222.5, with bet365 offering the best price of -110.
Bears vs. 49ers game info
- When: Sunday, Dec. 8
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 67 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NNW
- Favorite: 49ers -3.5 (-105 via Caesars)
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