Bengals vs. Browns Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 1: Will Cincinnati's Offense be Rusty in Opener?
Our favorite Bengals vs. Browns pick based on the best NFL odds analyzes how Cincinnati's offense looks in the opener after quarterback Joe Burrow missed the entire preseason.
Burrow is set to go in Week 1 after missing the entire preseason due to a calf injury. Last year, he had trouble shaking off rust after missing preseason reps and threw four interceptions in a 23-20 Week 1 overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Cleveland Browns have also fared well in this matchup, winning three of the five regular-season meetings against the Burrow-led Bengals. Burrow has a career passer rating of 91.5 against Cleveland, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Furthermore, the Browns overhauled their defense in the offseason and enlisted Jim Schwartz as the defensive coordinator. Can Cleveland's newly revamped defense capitalize on a rusty Cincinnati offense in the season opener? That could very well be the question that determines the outcome of this game.
Here is our best Bengals vs. Browns prediction (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bengals vs. Brown prediction
Joe Mixon Over 19.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!
This is one where I'm disagreeing with projections, which is a rarity for my prop betting.
According to NumberFire's projections for Week 1, running back Joe Mixon is expected to finish with 16.13 receiving yards against the Browns. That should lead us to taking Under on 21.5 yards at BetMGM, right?
Wrong.
New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $150 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).
That just doesn't really make sense to me from a football perspective.
For one, Mixon figures to have an increased role with the team now that Samaje Perine has joined the Denver Broncos. Perine stole plenty of snaps on passing downs, thanks to his ability as a blocker. Chase Brown and Chris Evans are now lurking behind Mixon on this year's depth chart, and they are responsible for a combined 17 NFL carries entering this season.
Typically, teams avoid blitzing Burrow, as he can make them pay with his ability to find his talented offensive weapons in the blink of an eye. According to PFF, Burrow was blitzed on just 25.6% of his dropbacks last and still produced an offensive grade of 84 when doing so.
Where things get interesting is that Burrow's calf injury could limit his mobility. Will Schwartz test fate by sending some extra rushers on critical downs? If he does, look for Mixon to be featured as a check-down option.
Mixon thrived for the Bengals in that role last year, finishing with 441 receiving yards on 60 catches. He record 20-plus receiving yards in 10 of his 14 regular-season games last season, including the opener when he caught seven of his nine targets for 63 yards.
This number is simply too low for what Mixon can do on just a few catches. I don't care what the projections say, at least this time.
Editor's note: Legal sports betting is coming soon to Kentucky – but you can pre-register now! Check out the best sites for Kentucky sports betting and the best Kentucky sportsbook promos! 21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bengals vs. Browns best odds
FanDuel (-114)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 receiving yards | Over 19.5 receiving yards | Over 21.5 receiving yards | N/A | N/A |
| -105 | -114 | -115 | N/A | N/A |
Mixon's receiving prop is priced at 21.5 at the rest of our best sports betting apps, so we encourage readers to take the discount on FanDuel's offering of 19.5 receiving yards. The pick is only listed at three stars due to NumberFire's projections, but it's worth noting that other public projection have Mixon finishing around 20 receiving yards.
More importantly, Pinnacle had this prop touch 19.5 at one point on Wednesday, but that line lasted all of six minutes before the shop eventually pushed it up to 21.5. That tells me that FanDuel might be making a mistake by leaving this mark at 19.5 for now.
Bengals vs. Browns odds
Bengals vs. Browns odds analysis
Because betting lines for Week 1 have been out all summer, this game experienced some wild odds movement. This line got all the way down to Bengals -1 when Burrow was sidelined, but has mostly settled around 2.5 as we approach kickoff.
The total, meanwhile, has mostly hovered around 47 or 48 for much of the offseason.
Since Burrow was drafted, the Bengals are 4-2 ATS against the Browns. The Over hit the first three meetings, but the total has pushed or finished Under in each of the last three head-to-head matchups.
Bengals vs. Browns game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 72 degrees, 27% chance of precipitation, 11-mph winds
Bengals-Browns prediction made Thursday, Sept. 7 at 4:10 p.m. ET
NFL betting odds pages
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
