Bengals vs. Chargers Prediction, SNF Picks & Odds: Sunday Night Football
The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers play a pivotal game in terms of AFC playoff seeding on Sunday Night Football at SoFi Stadium in Week 11.
- Entering this week, FTN gives the Chargers an 83% chance to make the playoffs, while the Bengals are at 32%
- Justin Herbert’s NFL MVP odds have been improving throughout the team’s three-game winning streak, with each victory of the double-digit variety
- The Chargers are off to their best start (6-3) since 2018, and they've already surpassed last year’s win total when they went 5-12
The Sunday Night Football odds recognize L.A.’s hot streak while pegging the team as a small 1.5-point home favorite. But our Bengals vs. Chargers prediction gives Cincinnati and the red-hot Joe Burrow a great chance to pull off the upset.
Kickoff for this Bengals-Chargers AFC clash is set for 8:20 p.m. ET and airs on NBC/Peacock. Our Connor Cooper forecasted a low-scoring affair in his Bengals vs. Chargers early picks.
Best Bengals vs. Chargers picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Bengals +1.5 (-108 via DraftKings) vs. Chargers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Ladd McConkey Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bengals vs. Chargers against the spread prediction: Sunday Night Football
Bengals to cover the spread: +1.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%
Los Angeles is 6-3 and firmly entrenched in an AFC wild-card spot for now (2.5 games ahead) on the strength of its defense. The Chargers are the only team to hold every opponent this season to 20 or fewer points.
However, facing a top-five scoring defense is no big deal for Burrow, as he's 7-2 with a 17-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio against top-five scoring defenses since 2021 (including the playoffs).
Chargers’ defensive statistics are inflated
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh always figured to bring a toughness and defense-first mentality from Michigan to Los Angeles. So it's unsurprising to see the Chargers ranked in the top nine in passing yards allowed per game and total defense.
However, Los Angeles hasn't faced a murderer’s row of star-studded offensive teams, as just two of its nine opponents rank in the top 16 in offensive DVOA.
Joe Burrow is coming off his third game with four-plus passing touchdowns this season, which is tied with Lamar Jackson for the league lead. I therefore expect Cincinnati’s speed and ability to create explosive plays offensively to catch Los Angeles off guard.
Back Burrow as an underdog
This will be Burrow’s 30th start as an underdog. While he's 11-17-1 straight up in that spot, many of those losses or poor results came early in his career.
Burrow has also built up a knack for keeping those games close even if the Bengals don't win. He's 19-10 against the spread as an underdog, including covering during 11 of his last 14 outings.
And don’t worry about the Bengals coming off a loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week, as Burrow has covered the spread in 72% of his last 26 games after a straight-up loss.
With Cincinnati only getting 1.5 points at all of our best sports betting sites, I would not put anyone off backing its moneyline odds (+108 at FanDuel is the best out there). The Bengals were even one of our three NFL upset picks of the week.
From a point-spread perspective, the best odds are at DraftKings, which is alone among our NFL parlay betting sites while offering less than the standard -110 juice to back the underdogs. A winning $10 wager would pay out $19.26 for one of your NFL Week 11 predictions.
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Bengals vs. Chargers player prop
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Ladd McConkey Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The O/U for this game has risen as much as 3.5 points from an opening number of 44.5 to 48 at some of our top NFL parlay betting sites. That suggests this game could turn into more of a shootout than the Chargers are accustomed to playing.
Ladd McConkey leads the Chargers in receptions and receiving yards, and he's produced two of his three-highest receiving yard totals of the season in the last three weeks.
McConkey faces a Bengals defense that's allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers in the last four weeks, and 11 top-20 wide receivers this season.
The rookie should get the necessary volume to go over this projected total, as he's registered seven games of six-plus targets. And a red-hot quarterback is throwing him the ball, as Herbert has scored 19-plus fantasy points in three straight games.
The best price is at BetMGM, as all of our other best sports betting apps are juiced to -115 or higher to back this wager.
Elsewhere, Phil Wood is eyeing another Chargers skill-position player in his Bengals vs. Chargers SNF prop bets.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Bengals vs. Chargers odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bengals vs. Chargers
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Chargers -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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