Bengals vs. Ravens Prediction, Picks, Odds Week 11: Thursday Night Football
The Cincinnati Bengals visit the Baltimore Ravens for a Thursday Night Football showdown that could go a long way to determining the AFC North standings, and we'll make our top Bengals vs. Ravens prediction based on the best NFL odds.
The Cincinnati Bengals, currently 5-4, faced a tough setback as their four-game winning streak ended with a 30-27 loss to the Houston Texans at home. Despite this defeat, quarterback Joe Burrow has maintained an impressive track record, standing at 20-4-1 against the spread in his last 25 non-division games, showcasing consistent performance in games beyond divisional matchups.
The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) are coming off a historic loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 10. Elias Sports Bureau noted that they are the fourth team in the Super Bowl era to lose after leading in the first minute of a game and not trailing until the final minute. In addition, ESPN Stats & Info revealed that it was Cleveland’s first win in its last 25 games when trailing by 14-plus.
Along with our Bengals vs. Ravens SGP, Bengals-Ravens props, Ja'Marr Chase player props, and Joe Burrow props, here is our best Bengals vs. Ravens prediction for Thursday Night Football (TNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bengals vs. Ravens prediction: Thursday Night Football
Ravens -3.5 (-107 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow continued his lack of success as a big favorite last week, falling to 2-7 ATS when his team has been favored by seven or more points. There is some trepidation fading Burrow in this spot, as he is 34-14-1 (71%) ATS in all other games. Still, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 11-4 SU in November or later against teams with a winning record (per Jamison Henley via ESPN Stats & Info), and the Ravens have a significant advantage not having to travel on a short week.
Entering last week, the Ravens had the third-best DVOA of any team through nine games since 1981, and Jackson’s play has had much to do with that. Jackson entered Week 10 with the most big-time throws (9) and highest passer rating when under pressure this season, and he is also the most accurate passer on attempts of 10-plus yards, per PFF.
This is a three-star play, as the Ravens beat caliber playoff opponents like the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, and the Browns — in their first meeting — by a combined 103-12 before last week’s collapse. In addition, Jackson is 14-3 at home in the regular season in November or later. The Ravens have held Burrow to a 3-3 TD-INT ratio and a 35.3 QBR or worse in three of the last four meetings, so we expect the Ravens to cover in this critical AFC North tilt.
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Bengals vs. Ravens best odds
BetRivers (-107)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | -3.5 | N/A | -4 | -3.5 |
| -110 | -110 | N/A | -110 | -110 |
The best price for Ravens backers is at BetRivers, as none of our other best sports betting apps offer less than standard -110 juice to back the favorites. This would be a no-play at -4, but we would not put anyone off waiting for a better line, as the spread may revert to Ravens -3 later in the week. Baltimore has covered in each of the previous three meetings between these teams.
Make sure you're getting the best price on this game by using our BetRivers bonus code: SBRBONUS.
Bengals vs. Ravens odds for Thursday Night Football
Bengals vs. Ravens odds analysis
Caesars opened at -3.5 like the rest of our best sports betting sites, but that number was quickly bet to -4 within the first half hour of opening. The current numbers are vastly different from the lookahead lines for this game, as most sportsbooks had Baltimore at -2.5 before Week 10 kicked off. The Bengals are 4-4-1 ATS this season, while the Ravens have covered the spread in six of 10 games.
There is a split among the best sportsbooks regarding the total, as half offer an O/U of 43.5, and the other half are at 44. Both teams are profitable Under teams, as Cincinnati has an O/U record of 4-5, while Baltimore cashed the Under in six of its 10 games. The Over has cashed in this rivalry's previous three meetings.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Nov. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
- How to watch: PRIME VIDEO
- Weather: 64 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph SSW
Bengals-Ravens prediction made 11/12/2023 at 8:25 p.m. ET
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