NFL Against the Spread Picks for Week 5: Can the Bills Cover as Massive Favorites?
Plug your nose and back the Chicago Bears during the Minnesota Vikings' first game back from London. Let's dive in with our Week 5 against the spread picks.
After all but one game in Week 4 featured a point spread of seven points or less, there are five favorites of at least a touchdown in Week 5. Two of those games are on our card for the best against the spread NFL picks, along with a small favorite that may be flying under the radar following a 1-3 start.
Here are our best NFL against the spread bets for Week 5 (odds via Caesars, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbooks).
Week 5 NFL Against the Spread Picks
Top NFL Against the Spread Predictions
Bears +7 (-110)
Chicago has won during three of its last four visits to Minnesota, and the Bears should be live underdogs once again in Week 5 with a defense that's held three of its first four opponents to 20 points or fewer. Meanwhile, as punchless as Chicago's attack has been overall so far in 2022, the Bears rank third in the NFL with 177 rushing yards per game. They should be able to do some damage against Minnesota's 23rd-ranked run defense.
The Vikings struggle to win comfortably at the best of times, needing a final-minute field goal and New Orleans missing its own field-goal attempt at the last second to edge the Saints 28-25 in Week 4. Facing a division rival one week after a game in London is hardly the ideal spot for Minnesota to change that tendency.
Patriots -3 (-105)
New England is off to a 1-3 start, but don’t shovel dirt on the Patriots’ playoff chances just yet. Those three losses came against likely playoff teams in the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, and Green Bay Packers. The Pats were competitive in each of those contests, even taking the Packers to overtime during Week 4 with third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe playing much of the game.
Whether Zappe is under center this week or starter Mac Jones (ankle) or backup Brian Hoyer (head) are able to play, the Patriots should move the ball with ease on the ground against a Detroit defense that allowed 48 points to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4. Meanwhile, while the Lions’ offense leads the NFL with an average of 35 points per game, three of their contests came at home in the climate-controlled Ford Field.
Things should be a lot tougher amid chillier conditions in New England, especially with star running back D’Andre Swift and top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown banged up with injuries that caused them to miss the Week 4 game against Seattle. Bill Belichick’s schemes baffled Jared Goff when the quarterback was with the Rams during Super Bowl 53. Back the Pats’ defensive genius to do the same in Week 5.
Bills -14 (-110)
The Bills’ previous 20 victories had been double-digit wins prior to Buffalo's three-point triumph over the Baltimore Ravens. This looks like the perfect spot for Buffalo to get back into bully mode, and look more like the team that beat the Titans and Rams by a combined 72-17 margin over the first two weeks of 2022. Make sure you shop around for this number, as several sportsbooks were already listing the Bills as 14.5-point favorites on Tuesday morning.
Although the Bills averaged just 21 points per game over their last two outings, those contests were played in red-hot Miami and rainy Baltimore. The offense should get back on track at home against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that isn’t the same without star defensive end T.J. Watt.
That’ll force Pittsburgh to open things up to keep pace, which should spell disaster during quarterback Kenny Pickett’s first career start. Pickett was intercepted three times in relief of Mitch Trubisky in Week 4 against the Jets. He now faces a Buffalo defense that ranks first against the pass and second in total yards and points allowed.
Where to Bet on NFL Week 5 Against the Spread Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
NFL Week 5 against the spread picks made 10/4/2022 at 8:41 a.m. ET
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