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NFL Player Props & Best Bets Conference Championships: Will Jackson Run Wild vs. Chiefs?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 28, 2024 11:48 AM EST • 5 min 57 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

Super Bowl berths are on the line in the AFC and NFC Championship on NFL Championship Sunday, and we offer our best NFL player props and best bets for the Conference Championship Round based on the best NFL odds.

We are hours away from kickoff on Championship Sunday, and the stars will be out in full force in Sunday's AFC and NFC Championship Games, starting with the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Baltimore Ravens and wrapping with the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Detroit Lions.

Patrick Mahomes, now in his sixth season as the starting quarterback, has led the Kansas City Chiefs to their sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game. This streak stands as the second-longest in NFL history. Their opponent is the Baltimore Ravens, our choice to advance according to our Super Bowl predictions.    

The biggest feel-good story of the postseason is that of the Lions. Detroit is appearing in its second NFC Championship and its first since 1991. The Lions face a challenging task against the 49ers, who remain the consensus favorites by the latest Super Bowl odds.

To go along with our NFL Championship Predictions, here are our NFL player props and best bets and NFL picks for the Conference Championships (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Conference Championship

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Conference Championship NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via Caesars)

NFL player props for Conference Championships

Lamar Jackson Over 63.5 rushing yards vs. Chiefs (-120 via BetMGM, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We usually don't prefer to be on the same side as the vast majority of the betting public, but per sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes, we are in agreement with the masses on the Over for Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards.

With a dominant performance against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, Jackson became the fifth player in NFL postseason history with two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in a game. We are not about to suggest that Jackson’s playoff woes are behind him because of one good performance, as through his first four career playoff games, he had a 42 Total QBR, completed 56% of his passes, posted a 3-5 TD-INT ratio, was off target on 21% of his passes, and had just one rushing touchdown. However, what has been consistent throughout his playoff experiences is his willingness to tuck the football and run.

Jackson has rushed for 54-plus yards in four of his five playoff games, and eclipsed the 100-yard mark three times. He may have no choice but to choose to beat the Chiefs on the ground, as they have allowed the fewest passing yards per attempt since Week 13.

Both FanDuel and bet365 are slightly higher with an O/U of 66.5 rushing yards, likely in response to how popular of a wager this is, so we are taking advantage of the best number and price at either BetMGM or DraftKings.

Our own C Jackson Cowart went further into the Ravens QB's outlook with his Lamar Jackson NFL player props.

Brandon Aiyuk anytime touchdown scorer vs. Lions (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

With fellow wide receiver Deebo Samuel questionable to suit up Sunday with a shoulder injury, we wanted to get out ahead of Brandon Aiyuk’s player props, in case they skyrocket if Samuel were to be ruled out. 

However, the O/U of 81.5 on Aiyuk’s receiving yards was a little too high, given how much of a feast-or-famine player he is. Aiyuk has 113-plus receiving yards in three of the previous six games, but has been held to 37 or fewer yards in the other three games in that span. Thus, we are much more enticed by the plus-money for his anytime touchdown odds, considering he has found the endzone at least once in five of the previous 10 games.

Per Fantasy Life, Aiyuk’s 25% target share without Samuel on the field leads all 49ers skill position players, and is well ahead of Jauan Jennings, the next-highest receiver on the list at 12%. Quarterback Brock Purdy figures to have success through the air against a Lions defense that has allowed the most passing yards per game and highest yards per attempt since Week 13. 

BetRivers has Purdy at -215 odds to have the most passing touchdowns in this matchup, and with all of the top sportsbooks having his O/U for passing touchdowns set at 2.5, we expect him to connect with Aiyuk for at least one passing score. DraftKings is juiced as high as -125 for Aiyuk’s anytime touchdown odds, so the +100 offered at bet365 is a steal in comparison.

Nfl Conf Champs Lobby

NFL game picks for Conference Championships

Chiefs team total Under 21.5 (-148 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

We are paying up slightly for our most confident five-star play, but DraftKings is the only shop offering a team total of O/U 21.5, as the rest of our best sports betting sites have limited this prop to O/Us of 20.5 (FanDuel has the best price for the Under at -116). 

Kansas City has averaged 26.5 points per game in its two playoff wins this season, but both outputs came against Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills defenses that were without several key starters. 

The Chiefs were held to 21 or fewer points in four of eight regular-season road games this year. They now face a Ravens defense that finished the regular season ranked first in scoring (16.5 points per game allowed), tied for first in takeaways (31), and first in sacks (60), making them the first team to lead in each category since 1970. 

Patrick Mahomes is 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog, and he very well may lead the Chiefs to a cover or an outright victory, especially since it would behoove the Chiefs to not get into a shootout (they went 0-4 when allowing 21 or more points in the regular season). 

However, Baltimore has the players to negate one of Kansas City’s biggest threats in the passing game (Travis Kelce), with either Patrick Queen or Kyle Hamilton likely to draw primary coverage. Mahomes threw for a career-low 261.4 passing yards per game this season, and his receivers had a drop rate or 5.46%, the worst for any starting quarterback. We expect the Ravens defense to expose the deficiencies that the Chiefs have played with all year.

Lions +7.5 vs. 49ers (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

On paper, this is not the best matchup for the Lions, whose league-worst explosive pass defense meets San Francisco’s league-best explosive pass offense. However, at some point Detroit’s league-best rush defense (per DVOA) and fourth-ranked defense in EPA/rush allowed will help the Lions on the back end, and we expect it to happen this week against a 49ers offense that could be without one of its top weapons.

49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel has only been able to get in a limited practice this week, and he remains questionable with a shoulder injury. His availability is paramount to quarterback Brock Purdy’s success. Purdy has a 27-6 TD-INT ratio and a 126.0 quarterback rating in the 13 games Samuel started and finished this year, and a 4-5 TD-INT ratio and an 80.6 quarterback rating in the four games he has either missed or started but did not finish, as sports betting analyst Matt Jacob pointed out.

We also expect the Lions rushing attack to keep them within striking distance in this game. Jahymr Gibbs is coming off his sixth game with 100 scrimmage yards this season. And in terms of running outside the tackles (including the postseason), Gibbs ranks fifth in rushing yards per game, fourth in yards before contact per rush, and tied for third in 10-plus yard rushes. He and the rest of the Detroit backfield faces a 49ers defense that ranks 28th in rushing yards per game and 26th in yards per rush outside the tackles, 29th in yards before contact per rush outside the tackles, and is tied for 24th in allowing the most 10-plus yard rushes outside the tackles. 

This is a three-star play, as San Francisco has failed to cover its previous six home games, which is tied for its longest streak since 2016. While BetRivers is the only sportsbook offering a spread of Lions +7.5 (for a price of -117), we are getting better value by moving up bet365’s original +7 point spread for +100 odds, and backing the Lions on the alternate spread for less juice than BetRivers charges.

NFL best bets made 1/26/2024 at 6:23 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”