NFL Week 9 Best Bets: Predictions, Player Props & ATS Picks
A loaded 15-game NFL slate in Week 9 should continue to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
- Overs went 12-4 in Week 8, the highest percentage thus far
- In Week 8, home teams went a season-best 11-5 ATS
- The winner of the Lions-Packers game, one of two games between teams over .500, will be in first place in the NFC North
Our NFL best bets for Week 9 disagree with the line movement in a total involving two AFC teams while backing a running back to continue his hot start for his new team.
My NFL best bets for Week 8 went 3-1 for a profit of +3.55 units, and we are looking to continue the momentum this week. The below picks are part of our NFL Week 9 predictions.
Best NFL player props & ATS predictions for Week 9
NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown scorer (+220 via BetMGM) vs. Cowboys ⭐⭐⭐
- Saquon Barkley Over 101.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 via Caesars) vs. Jaguars ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Chargers-Browns Under 43 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Rams -1.5 (-115 via FanDuel) vs. Seahawks ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Week 9 NFL odds & schedule
(Odds via BetMGM)
- Houston Texans (+2.5) vs. New York Jets (-2.5), Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Miami Dolphins (+6) vs. Buffalo Bills (-6), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers (+7), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Denver Broncos (+9) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-9), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Washington Commanders (-3.5) vs. New York Giants (+3.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Chargers (-2) vs. Cleveland Browns (+2), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- New England Patriots (+3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (-3.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bears (+1) vs. Arizona Cardinals (-1), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
- Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (+3.5), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Rams (-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (+2), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-5.5), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5), Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET
NFL props for Week 9
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +220 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 31.25%
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The Cowboys' defense ranks in the bottom three in yards per play (6.0) and points per game allowed (28.3), while their offense’s 74.1 rushing yards per game are their second-fewest through seven games.
That's a recipe for continuing a pass-heavy offense, especially against an Atlanta squad that should put up points.
Jake Ferguson, or any Cowboys tight end, does not have a receiving touchdown this year. However, he has a great chance to get off the snide against a Falcons defense that entered last week ranked 16th in receiving yards and 14th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends.
This is a three-star play, as Tampa Bay’s Cade Otton torched Atlanta for nine catches, 81 yards, and two touchdowns last week.
Granted, the Buccaneers were without their top two wide receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), but Ferguson should still see plenty of targets, as his 42 are second-most among Cowboys pass catchers.
DraftKings offers odds as low as +170 (carrying a 37.04% implied probability) that Ferguson will find the end zone. I am taking advantage of the best price at BetMGM, where a winning $10 wager would net $22 in profits.
Saquon Barkley Over 101.5 rushing + receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Saquon Barkley has 110 or more scrimmage yards in six of seven games. And having a healthy A.J. Brown has benefitted everyone, raising their offensive ceiling tremendously.
Philadelphia is 4-0 with a healthy Brown, averaging 29.8 points per game, converting 31% of its third downs and scoring a touchdown or a field goal on one of every two drives.
Without Brown, the Eagles are 1-2, averaging 17.3 points per game, converting 45% of third downs, and posting a 28% score percentage.
Barkley faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed a top-six fantasy running back in three of the last four weeks. And while that would suggest he will find the end zone as well, Barkley’s -179 anytime touchdown odds at Caesars are unplayable.
NFL game predictions for Week 9
Chargers-Browns Under 43 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
This total has risen from an opening of 39.5 to a week-long high of 43 at several of our best NFL betting sites. While Jameis Winston injected life into the Browns' offense last week, he is facing a Chargers team whose seven games have not yet reached the 40-point plateau.
Cleveland scored 20-plus points for the first time this season last week. However, expectations should be tempered this week, as the Browns exploited a leaky Ravens pass defense.
Baltimore’s pass defense ranks last in yards per game allowed (291.4), passing touchdowns allowed (17), and has allowed the most completions of 15-plus air yards (40), which is seven more than the next closest team.
This is a four-star play, as the Chargers are the only team to hold every opponent to 20 or fewer points. In addition, the Under has cashed in 59% of games (29 of 49) that Jim Harbaugh has coached with a total of 44 or lower.
Considering the non-stop line movement in support of the Over, I would not put any Under backers off of waiting to see if the total continues to rise. However, I am content at firing away at the Under of 43 at the standard -110 juice at Caesars, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.
Rams -1.5 vs. Seahawks ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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The Rams held the Vikings to a season-low in points (20) and rushing yards (64) in last week’s upset on Thursday Night Football. In the process, Los Angeles had season highs in points (30) and yards per play (5.8).
Matthew Stafford clearly benefited from the return of his top two wide receivers (Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp). He passed for 279 yards and four touchdowns after recording three passing touchdowns and four interceptions in the first six games.
Seattle is on a three-game home losing streak and has allowed 29 or more points in four of the last five games, going 1-4 in that stretch. The Seahawks were undisciplined against Buffalo, committing 11 penalties and two turnovers and converting just one of seven third-down opportunities.
This becomes a more confident five-star play if wide receiver DK Metcalf misses a second consecutive game with a knee injury.
The betting public has seemingly agreed with my analysis, as the line has jumped the fence from Seahawks -1.5 at several top sports betting sites at the beginning of the week to the Rams being small road favorites.
All other top sports betting sites are at -2, and FanDuel looks ready to align with its competitors given the -115 juice to back the favorites. I am comfortable paying slightly more for the extra half-point value.
NFL betting odds pages
Here are our best NFL betting sites:
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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