Bills vs. Chiefs Parlay Picks & Predictions: SGP Odds
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship on Sunday. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+).
Considering these two teams met in Week 11, I have a full 60 minutes of action to base my Bills vs. Chiefs parlay picks on. The Bills won that first contest 30-21, as QB Josh Allen accounted for over 300 yards, and the defense intercepted Patrick Mahomes twice.
As part of our conference championship predictions, we build a parlay while looking at whether the Chiefs will get revenge or if the Bills will advance to their first Super Bowl since 1994.
Bills vs. Chiefs parlay predictions
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Buffalo Bills moneyline (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Dalton Kincaid 40+ receiving yards (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 255.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +700 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 12.50%
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SGP predictions for Bills vs. Chiefs
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Buffalo Bills moneyline (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even with this game being played in Kansas City, I’m backing the Bills to win. In the first meeting, they outgained the Chiefs by over 100 yards, dominated time of possession by over eight minutes, and turned Mahomes over twice.
While the Bills’ secondary is definitely a concern, they intercepted Lamar Jackson once last week, and the defense forced three turnovers in that game. The unit also held Derrick Henry and Jackson to just 123 rushing yards.
The Chiefs managed only 212 yards in the divisional round and were outgained by 124 yards. This team has been winning nailbiters all season, but if they play like they have been against the Bills, Allen will be too much to overcome. This game might not be close.
Dalton Kincaid 40+ receiving yards (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
No team allowed more yards to tight ends this season than the Chiefs. They were one of just six teams to allow more than 1,000 yards, giving up 1,191. Kincaid didn’t play in the first meeting between these two, but second-string tight end Dawson Knox accumulated four catches for 40 yards in his absence.
Kincaid only had one catch for 11 yards last week, but he had three for 47 in the Bills’ wild-card win over the Denver Broncos. He’s topped 40 yards in six of his 15 games this season. But you can’t pass up this matchup, even though he's not overly consistent.
Last week, Dalton Schultz went for 63 yards against the Chiefs. And in the last game of the regular season in which they played their starters, the Chiefs allowed 60 yards to Pat Freiermuth. This is a place that the Chiefs have struggled all season, and it won’t end today.
Patrick Mahomes Over 255.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes only threw for 196 yards in the first meeting between these two teams, but I am not betting against him with his team one win away from the Super Bowl. Since that performance against the Bills, Mahomes has thrown for at least 260 yards in four of his seven games. While he struggled against the Texans, he was also facing the sixth-ranked pass defense in football.
The Bills ended the regular season ranked 24th in pass defense. They’ve been better in the postseason, shutting down Bo Nix and holding Lamar Jackson in check until late in the game. But this is a secondary that can be burned, and in a game in which I expect the Chiefs to be trailing, Mahomes will throw much more than he did against the Texans.
Mahomes may have had a down year, but he still ended up with the seventh-most passing yards in the league. This is still a quarterback that can take advantage of any good matchup.
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Bills vs. Chiefs odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Bills vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 26
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
- How to watch: CBS/Paramount+
- Weather: 31 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph WNW
- Favorite: Chiefs -2 (-110 via BetMGM)
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