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Broncos vs. Rams Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 16: Can Denver’s Defense Dictate Christmas Day Matchup?

Kenny Ducey

Last Updated: December 25, 2022 7:47 AM EST • 2 min 56 sec read.

It may not be the most exciting matchup on the NFL's Christmas Day slate, but bettors can still get an angle on the Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Rams contest. Check out our Broncos-Rams NFL best bet.

The Broncos have won just two games since the calendar turned to October, but one of those victories came last week against the Arizona Cardinals without starting quarterback Russell Wilson. Now, oddsmakers are expecting yet another victory with Wilson back in the fold.

That’s due in large part to the state of the Los Angeles Rams, who continue to try to make due without starting signal caller Matthew Stafford. Can they cover just their fifth spread of the season and perhaps improve to 5-10?

Here is our best Broncos vs. Rams NFL pick for Week 16 (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and our Broncos vs. Rams SGP Picks.

Broncos vs. Rams Game Info

Date: Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022
TV: CBS
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Weather: 72 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-mph wind

Broncos vs. Rams Odds

Broncos vs. Rams Odds Analysis

The Broncos were initially 1.5-point underdogs on the lookahead line with Wilson’s status for this one up in the air, and at the open they were offered as 1.5-point favorites. The line has moved all the way out to -3 with 49% of the bets and 77% of the handle on the spread over at DraftKings coming in on the road team.

The Under has attracted 66% of the bets and 65% of the handle at DraftKings, but despite that we’ve seen the number go up. After opening at 35.5 points, this total has climbed to 36.5. No books have dared to hang a 37.

Check out our NFL Best Bets and all of our top NFL Picks for Week 16.      

Broncos vs. Rams Pick

Broncos -3 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’ll admit, this isn’t my favorite game of the week to bet on. The quarterback play for both teams has been downright ugly and the Rams have now lost yet another receiver to a season-ending injury in Ben Skowronek.

On the other side of things, just about every impact player for Denver is questionable from Courtland Sutton to Randy Gregory and Latavius Murray. There is truly no telling what this team will look like on Sunday.

The one thing we can say for sure is that the Broncos’ defense is the best unit in this game. They’re No. 1 in DVOA against the pass and while they sit 17th against the run, Los Angeles has no ground game to speak of whatsoever.

Baker Mayfield has gotten significantly worse from his already-disappointing 2021 season, posting a 51.2 offensive grade this year over at PFF, which is by far the worst of his career. After one of his best games of the season against the Las Vegas Raiders (one of the worst secondaries in football), Mayfield hit a wall with a 41.7 grade last week in a loss to the Packers which saw him throw for just 111 yards.

You can criticize Wilson all you want — and he’s warranted criticism for how badly he’s played — but he hasn’t been nearly as bad as Mayfield this year. This Rams defense is not the same without Aaron Donald in the fold, and the offense is going to continue to struggle without pass catchers. On top of that, no one defends against the pass better than Denver. Lay the points.

Broncos vs. Rams Best Odds

PointsBet (-110)

BetMGMCaesarsDraftKingsFanDuelPointsBet
-3 (-110)-3 (-115)-3 (-110)-3 (-114)-3 (-110)

There are just three games to bet on Sunday, meaning there is a high concentration of action in the NFL. There are plenty of people lining up to bet on this game, and with that the lines are pretty uniform.

PointsBet was offering an even larger advantage than normal here, hanging a -105 – a five-cent discount over both BetMGM and DraftKings – for most of Saturday before settling back in at -110. Take your pick of any of the three books offering that number as of Sunday morning. FanDuel and Caesars aren't worth your time here.

Broncos-Rams pick made 12/23/2022 at 3:20 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Kenny Ducey
Kenny is a contributor for DraftKings and a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. He's covered Tennis, Football, Basketball, and Baseball dating back to his time at Sports Illustrated. He's based out of New York, where sports have taken a turn for the worst, yet somehow his support for the Jets and Knicks has not wavered in the slightest.