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Broncos vs. Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds Today: NFL Wild Card Weekend

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 12, 2025 10:00 AM EST • 4 min 30 sec read.

Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II gestures after a play in the third quarter against the Indianapolis Colts as we look at our Broncos vs. Bills prediction.
Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II gestures after a play in the third quarter against the Indianapolis Colts. Photo by Isaiah J. Downing/Imagn Images.

Plenty of action is lined up for the Sunday of Wild Card Weekend, and the Denver Broncos clash with the Buffalo Bills from Highmark Stadium (CBS) at 1 p.m. ET to begin a tripleheader.

The Bills are the 8.5-point favorites ahead of the Broncos playing in their first postseason game since 2015. Buffalo is also riding high after securing its fifth straight AFC East title.

We've been rolling out our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions, and my Broncos vs. Bills prediction takes a look at whether the visiting squad can keep the game competitive while expanding on our Broncos vs. Bills early picks.

Broncos vs. Bills predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Broncos vs. Bills ATS prediction: Wild Card Weekend

Broncos to cover the spread: +9 ⭐⭐⭐

Broncos defense can keep them in the game

Denver’s defense leads the league in sacks, is third in points per game allowed, and ranks in the top seven in takeaways and total yards per game allowed.

However, this is seemingly a matchup that Josh Allen will be comfortable with. When facing pressure, Allen’s 85 QBR and 6.5 yards per dropback rank first among all quarterbacks, and his 13 combined passing and rushing touchdowns are tied for first. 

While that should come in handy against a Broncos defense that ranks second in pressure percentage (35%) this season, all it takes is one sack from a fierce Denver pass rush to get Buffalo off schedule and stall a drive.

Bo Nix is not playing like a rookie

Nix threw for 29 touchdowns this year, the second-most ever by a rookie. He also produced 34 offensive touchdowns as a whole (third-most ever by a rookie) and ranked eighth among all quarterbacks with 430 rushing yards.

Even if the Buffalo pass rush gets pressure on Nix (which is unlikely because Denver’s 73.8% pass block win rate is the best in the league), I am encouraged by the fact that his 76 QBR when pressured over the last three weeks ranked seventh-best among all quarterbacks.

And regardless of facing several Kansas City Chiefs backups last week, Nix still completed his first 18 consecutive passes - the longest streak to start a game by a rookie in NFL history. 

Faith in Sean Payton

Sean Payton’s teams seem to relish the underdog role in the playoffs, going 4-1 ATS in playoff games when catching points.

While it is true Denver only won two games against playoff competition this year, and one was in Week 18 against Kansas City, the Broncos also won an NFL-best eight games by double digits.

While many of our best sports betting sites have come down to a spread of +8.5, I am paying up slightly for bet365’s -115 odds as the only sportsbook offering the underdog at +9. Through the -115 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $8.70 in profits.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Broncos vs. Bills best pick

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Keon Coleman Under 29.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Coleman saw a career-high 10 targets last week. Still, the fact that he was playing alongside several Buffalo backups suggests that the coaching staff knew he needed more reps for his confidence heading into the playoffs.

If you told me that Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain would be lined up against Coleman for at least half of his snaps, I would back this play with 100 stars of confidence. 

Surtain held receivers like Cincinnati Bengals superstar Ja’Marr Chase to three catches on 43 routes and Tampa Bay Buccaneers veteran Mike Evans to one catch on 24 routes this season, and he is unlikely to cover receivers like Khalil Shakir, who operate more out of the slot.

Either way, Surtain leads the secondary on a defense that ranked in the top three in the league in defensive efficiency and defensive EPA, and 11th in QBR allowed. 

This line came down from an O/U of 33.5 earlier in the week, but I am still backing this wager as a four-star play. DraftKings is the only top sports betting site charging the standard -110 juice to back the Under on a total as high as 29.5.

Broncos vs. Bills weather: Highmark Stadium

It's expected to feel like 27 degrees in Orchard Park at game time with wind gusts up to 17 mph. There's a 25% probability of precipitation but no amount is expected to accumulate.

Broncos vs. Bills line movement

The spread has stayed mostly steady since opening at -8.5 in favor of the Bills, though it did dip further toward Buffalo to -9 briefly at some of our best sportsbooks.

Meanwhile, the total has zig-zagged its way to sit at 47.5 or 48, getting as low as 46.5 at one point.

Broncos vs. Bills expert picks

Broncos vs. Bills odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Broncos vs. Bills live odds

Broncos vs. Bills opening odds:

  • Broncos: +8.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
  • Bills: -8.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Broncos vs. Bills injuries

Broncos vs. Bills game info

  • When: Sunday, Jan. 12
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
  • How to watch: CBS/Paramount+
  • Weather: 32 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, wind 8-mph W
  • Favorite: Bills -8.5 (-120 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”