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Browns vs. Ravens Prediction, Picks & Best Bets Today: NFL Week 18

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 4, 2025 1:41 PM EST • 3 min 52 sec read.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry following the Christmas game against the Houston Texans, and we offer our best Browns vs. Ravens prediction.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry following the Christmas game against the Houston Texans. Photo by Troy Taormina via Imagn Images.

In a game featuring a spread that sounds almost fake, the Baltimore Ravens host the Cleveland Browns in Week 18 as 20-point favorites with the AFC North title on the line.

This -20 number represents the most points the Ravens have been favored by in franchise history. Baltimore had never entered a game as more than a 17-point favorite, and it opened this game even bigger than that.

Meanwhile, the Browns are on their second five-game losing streak of the season and their fourth quarterback, with Bailey Zappe getting the start.

As part of our Week 18 NFL predictions, my Browns vs. Ravens prediction can't find many reasons to back Cleveland even at a massive spread.

Browns vs. Ravens predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Ravens -17.5 (-108 via DraftKings) vs. Browns ⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Zay Flowers anytime touchdown scorer (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Browns vs. Ravens ATS prediction: Week 18

Ravens to cover the spread: -17.5 ⭐⭐

Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%

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Cleveland’s offensive struggles

The Miami Dolphins are coming off holding the Browns to a season-low three points last week. Cleveland has now scored 14 points or fewer in four straight games for the first time since 2016.

Its offensive struggles are nothing new when Dorian Thompson-Robinson is under center, and that's unlikely to change much with Zappe.

Baltimore’s improved defense

There was a time this season when the Ravens' defense was their biggest weakness. However, Baltimore entered last week in the top-eight in DVOA against the pass over the previous six weeks and then shut out the Houston Texans, with its only two points allowed coming via safety.

Baltimore’s offensive performance against Houston was also impressive, as it racked up 25 first downs, 432 total yards, and averaged 7.1 yards per play against a defense that had ranked first in the league overall, according to DVOA.

Payback for the Ravens

Lamar Jackson does not have the best track record in home divisional games in his career, going just 5-10 ATS. In addition, Cleveland has won four of the last seven meetings between these teams, and covered in four of the previous five.

However, I expect Baltimore to use its lack of success against Cleveland to fuel it enough to cover this big number en route to winning a division title. 

And in the last six instances where a team was a 17-point favorite or higher in the last game of the regular season, that team won by 20-plus points four times.

I am only backing this play with two stars of confidence as there is no telling how head coach John Harbaugh will approach the second half if his team is up big. 

But if Cleveland continues to average just 7.4 points per game with Thompson-Robinson under center, in theory it should not take much more than 24 points for the Ravens’ No. 1 offense per DVOA to cover this big number.

DraftKings is the only top sports betting site where one can back the Ravens at -17.5 at less than the standard -110 juice.

Browns vs. Ravens best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Zay Flowers anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +155 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 39.22%

Last week, Miami’s No. 1 wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, caught all nine of his targets for a game-high 105 yards against Cleveland. The Browns have had difficulty covering other teams’ top wideouts all season, ranking 31st in DVOA defending No. 1 wide receivers.

Flowers has eclipsed 100 receiving yards five times this season, and entered last week tied for 12th among wideouts in deep targets. 

Do not buy too much into his two-catch for 31-yard performance against Houston last week, as the Texans rank in the top 11 in fewest yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

This is a much juicier matchup for Flowers, and he is a great bet to break a five-game touchdown drought. The +155 odds at DraftKings trump the +140 odds that Caesars offers.

Elsewhere, Phil Wood is looking toward another Ravens skill-position player to score in his Browns vs. Ravens player prop picks.

Browns vs. Ravens expert picks

Browns vs. Ravens odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Browns vs. Ravens live odds

Browns vs. Ravens opening odds:

  • Browns: +17.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Steelers: -17.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Browns vs. Ravens odds movement

This spread has moved from an already-massive 17.5 points to an unfathomable 20, with the Ravens serving as nearly three-touchdown favorites.

As you'd expect plenty of money is backing the Browns to cover this absurd number.

Browns vs. Ravens injuries

Browns vs. Ravens game info

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 4
  • Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
  • How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: 34 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph WNW
  • Favorite: Ravens -17.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”