Buccaneers vs. Colts Week 12 Picks: Expect a Shootout in Indy

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 25, 2021 7:04 AM EST • 2 min 37 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts is one of five on the NFL's Week 12 slate that features two playoff teams from a year ago. We break it down with our Buccaneers-Colts picks.

The Buccaneers ended a two-game losing skid with their 30-10 win over the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. While the Bucs improved their home record to 5-0, they are just 2-3 on the road this season and failed to cover the spread in all five of their road games.

The Colts have won five of six games after a 1-4 start. In their six home games, the Colts are 3-3 straight up and against the spread. They covered the spread in seven of their 11 games overall.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 12 matchup between the Buccaneers and Colts (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Buccaneers vs. Colts Week 12 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 28, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, INWeather: Indoors

Buccaneers vs. Colts Odds Analysis

Tampa Bay has been favored in every game this year, but its 3-point spread is its lowest since Week 3 when the Bucs lost outright as 1-point road favorites against the Los Angeles Rams. Most sportsbooks are in unison with the 3-point spread, after it opened at 2.5.

The Under cashed in four of Tampa Bay’s last five games, while the Over is 4-1 in Indianapolis’ last five. The total has fluctuated between 51 and 52 points at most sportsbooks thus far.

Buccaneers vs. Colts Picks

Colts +3 (-110) ?Over 53 (-110) ???

Buccaneers vs. Colts Predictions

Colts +3 (-110)

Grabbing the points with the Colts is a one-star play since it is a matter of time before the Buccaneers figure out their road struggles. However, Indianapolis is playing its best football of the season, in large part because of the legs of RB Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor became the 18th player in NFL history to score five touchdowns in a game last week against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills entered the game having allowed just four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs all season, which was tied for the fourth-fewest. However, Taylor torched the Bills for 185 rushing yards and 204 scrimmage yards. He did it against a defense that had ranked third in the league in rush defense entering the week.

Many will point to Tampa Bay’s league-best rush defense (78.4 yards per game allowed) as to why the Buccaneers will cover the spread; however, the Colts’ rushing attack looks unstoppable at the moment.

Over 53 (-110)

The Colts have scored at least 30 points in five of their last six games, and an offense cannot be that successful solely with a dominant rushing attack. QB Carson Wentz has the eighth-highest QBR since Week 4, and his six games with at least two passing touchdowns and no interceptions entering last week was tied for the most in the league.

Tampa Bay’s offense averaged just 23 points per game in back-to-back losses to the New Orleans Saints and Washington Football Team. However, the Bucs offense reached a different level last week, in large part because of TE Rob Gronkowski’s presence.

Gronkowski is QB Tom Brady’s safety blanket, and his presence in the middle of the field opens up more opportunities for WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the outside. Gronk was on the field for 46 plays last week, and Tampa Bay averaged 6.2 yards per play and 7.7 yards per pass attempt in that span. Conversely, the team averaged 4.0 yards per play and just 5.1 yards per pass attempt in the 31 plays that he was on the sideline.

Colts head coach Frank Reich tends to call a more aggressive game plan against good teams, and the Over/Under trends support that. The Over is 11-1 in Indianapolis’ last 12 games against teams with a winning record. We should be in for another shootout this week.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Buccaneers-Colts picks made on 11/23/2021 at 12 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”