Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction, TNF, Tonight: Thursday Night Football Picks & Odds
Week 5's Thursday Night Football matchup could have a massive impact on the NFC South race with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the Atlanta Falcons.
- In Kirk Cousins career, he's just 13-21 in primetime games
- For Cousins to remain a top contender by the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds, he'll need to show up against Tampa
- One of the biggest surprises of the first four weeks of the season has been Baker Mayfield emerging as an NFL MVP odds contender
- Both teams are longer than +2500 by the Super Bowl odds
The Falcons are only slight home favorites based on the Thursday Night Football odds, but we are flipping our Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction from what we originally had in our early picks column as we start our NFL Week 5 predictions.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds movement
Atlanta opened as a 3-point favorite at our Super Bowl betting sites. With slight movement leading up to kickoff, the Falcons are now -1.5.
The Buccaneers have 54% of the money on them covering, with 46% on The Falcons. The Over has 66% of the money, with the total hovering around 44.
Best Buccaneers vs. Falcons picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Buccaneers +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Falcons ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Cade Otton longest reception Under 14.5 yards (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Buccaneers vs. Falcons against the spread prediction
Buccaneers to cover the spread: +1.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Atlanta opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and has since been bet down to -1.5 across all of our best sports betting sites. Aside from the line movement, there are other factors why I like the Buccaneers to cover in this spot.
Tampa Bay looked much better against a common opponent
Both the Buccaneers and Falcons played the Philadelphia Eagles this year, and while Atlanta faced them on the road while Tampa Bay got them at home, Tampa Bay looked much more dominant.
The Buccaneers ran 22 plays in Eagles territory before Philadelphia crossed midfield. The Eagles' defense also turned in one of their worst overall games in the last three seasons.
Philadelphia allowed 30 completions (fourth-worst over the last three years), 334 passing yards (third-worst), 29 first downs (second-worst), and had eight pressures (tied for fifth-worst).
Baker Mayfield is playing elite football
Mayfield is coming off a three-touchdown and zero-interception performance in Week 4, and now has 10 total touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. He ranks fourth in passing yards (984), second in passing touchdowns (eight), and second in off-target percentage (9.4%).
And in his last 10 games, Mayfield has a 19-5 TD-INT ratio.
On the other side, Atlanta’s offense is hard to trust as it needed a special teams and defensive touchdown to eke out last week’s win, which was its first without scoring an offensive touchdown since 2004.
Cousins struggles indoors
The Falcons failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites in last week’s 26-24 win. That dropped Cousins to 11-22 ATS in home games since 2020. And Cousins is even worse in indoor games, as he is 14-27 ATS in games in domes over the last five seasons, and has covered the spread in just one of his last 11 indoor games.
These are important trends to note for your NFL Week 5 picks against the spread.
With the spread so low, I would not put anyone off backing Tampa Bay’s moneyline odds (the best price is +108 at FanDuel), especially since Cousins has won just 34% of his career games outside of the 1 p.m. ET time slot. However, there is still value in the Buccaneers at +1.5, as a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons player prop
Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Cade Otton longest reception Under 14.5 yards (-125) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -125 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 55.56%
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I really like the Under on Otton’s 3.5 receptions this week, but with it juiced as much as -165 at FanDuel, I had to get more creative to return maximum value.
If Otton is expected to catch three or fewer passes (which carries a 62.26% implied probability), the -125 odds at DraftKings for his longest reception to be 14 or fewer yards is great value, considering he has gone under this projected total in three of four games.
Mayfield spread the ball around last week targeting nine different players. Otton was one of three players to see nine-plus targets, but I expect Tampa Bay to lean on its running game more on a short week, considering the Falcons have allowed 125-plus rushing yards in every game this season.
In addition, Tampa Bay’s wideouts should feast most in the passing game. The Falcons entered last week ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in points per reception per target to perimeter wide receivers.
The Under 14.5 yards for Otton’s longest reception is juiced as high as -128 at Caesars, so the best payout is at DraftKings, where a winning $10 wager would net $8 in profits.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Falcons (2-2)
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Falcons (-125 via BetMGM)
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