Chargers vs. Texans Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: NFL Wild Card Weekend
Redemption is best served cold, or at least it should be. Like a toddler who finds a secret chocolate stash, Las Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert must be bouncing off the walls with anticipation.
After infamously coughing up a 27-point halftime lead against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a wild-card game two years ago, he finally gets a second crack at the playoffs when his Chargers and Houston Texans square off at NRG Stadium on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
Los Angeles is the 2.5-point road favorite entering the contest via the NFL Wild Card Weekend odds, and our Chargers vs. Texans prediction analyzes the chances of the visitors covering and advancing, thanks in part to Herbert's long-awaited playoff redemption.
The below picks are part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions.
Chargers vs. Texans predictions
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Chargers -2.5 (-118 via FanDuel) vs. Texans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Justin Herbert Over 1.5 touchdown passes (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Chargers vs. Texans ATS prediction: Wild Card Weekend
Chargers to cover the spread: -2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jim Harbaugh's defense has decisive advantage
Like most elite coaches, Harbaugh has a priceless and uncanny ability to connect with his players and continuously galvanize the collective. And it's shown with a near-miraculous improvement on both sides of the ball in less than a year in charge.
He also knows how to assemble an intricate puzzle to formulate a defensive juggernaut. His Chargers allowed the fewest points per game (17.7) and were ranked the fifth-best defense via PFF.
While its overall pass rush has a middle-of-the-pack rating (tied for 16th via PFF) and blitzes at just 23.8% (16th-most), it registered the sixth-most sacks (46). That should be problematic for a Texans offensive line that sat idly by while witnessing C.J. Stroud get sacked 52 times, more than any other quarterback not named Caleb Williams.
Five players had five sacks or more, with Tuli Tuipulotu leading the charge. Their coverage unit is even better, ranked fourth overall via PFF.
On the other hand, the Texans have endured a miserable time offensively, especially lately without wideouts Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. Houston's offense is 25th in EPA per play and 31st in success rate since and has allowed 352.5 yards per game — the eighth-most — since Week 10.
Compare that to the 315 yards per game allowed in the first nine weeks, which was the sixth-fewest.
Chargers have momentum and form on their side
The playoffs can often be the great equalizer, negating any previous compiled momentum. But I don't think that's the case in this scenario.
The Texans were 1-5 against playoff teams in the regular season, the same record in their last six against AFC West opponents. On the other side of the field is Harbaugh and his in-form Chargers, who went 7-2 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season, including five straight covers on enemy turf.
They are also a far superior 3-3-1 ATS against playoff teams. And while I don't believe in historical trends too much, the Chargers' 7-2 ATS record against the Texans in the last nine is compelling enough to note.
The Chargers were favored by 2.5 points at FanDuel briefly when the lines opened but lengthened to 3 points shortly thereafter. However, both FanDuel and DraftKings have the 2.5-point line back.
I'm taking it at FanDuel as it offers the best price. Our other best sportsbooks have Los Angeles as 3-point favorites.
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%
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Chargers vs. Texans best pick
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Justin Herbert Over 1.5 touchdown passes ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Herbert was on fire down the stretch, tossing at least two touchdown passes in four straight to finish the season. The Chargers quarterback, who his head coach refers to as "The Beast," should be brimming with confidence, and he'll be hellbent on a redemptive performance in his second playoff game.
Yes, it has been two years since he and his Chargers inexplicably blew a 27-point halftime lead in that infamous wild-card loss. While it's a memory that will forever live in Herbert's cerebral cortex, I believe he'll use it as a motivating factor and live up to his "Beast" nickname.
In addition, the Texans allowed the third-most passing touchdowns during the regular season (31). The perfect conditions at NRG Stadium should play into Herbert's right hand.
BetMGM offers the best price for the prop, and a winning $10 pick will profit $10.
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%
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Chargers vs. Texans odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Chargers vs. Texans live odds
Chargers vs. Texans opening odds:
- Chargers: -3 (-104)
- Texans: +3 (+118)
Chargers vs. Texans injuries
Chargers vs. Texans game info
- When: Saturday, Jan. 11
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Chargers -2.5 (-118 via FanDuel)
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