Chiefs vs. Bengals Week 17 Picks: Cincinnati Undervalued as Home Underdog

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals face off in a key AFC battle. Find out who we like with our Chiefs-Bengals picks.

Two of the most explosive and entertaining AFC contenders face off early Sunday afternoon in Week 17. The 11-4 Kansas City Chiefs take on the 9-6 Cincinnati Bengals as both teams are fighting for key playoff positioning. This very well could be the game of the week as we'll see two elite quarterbacks leading their teams.

Both the Chiefs and Bengals have covered the spread in eight of their 15 games. Kansas City has hit the Over in eight games, whereas Cincinnati is 7-8 going Over the total. While the Chiefs have already clinched the division and a playoff spot, the Bengals are in a dogfight for the AFC North title.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 17 matchup between the Chiefs and Bengals (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a one-to-five-star scale).

Chiefs vs. Bengals Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 2, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OHWeather: 36 degrees, mixed precipitation

Chiefs vs. Bengals Odds Analysis

The Chiefs opened as just a four-point favorite and we've seen the public push it to as many as 5.5 at some books. Sharps are more torn at 5.5, but much more willing to take the Chiefs with five points. It's clear their eight-game winning streak has influenced everyone's opinion on them as a dominant force.

The total jumped four points from 47 to 51 thanks to 99% of the public's total going over, and sharps closely behind at 96%. Now at 51, sharps are more balanced but the public is still pushing for a high-scoring affair. We'll dive into these trends more below.

Chiefs vs. Bengals Picks

Bengals +5.5 (-115) ???Under 51 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: Top 3 Underdog Picks of Week 17

Chiefs vs. Bengals Predictions

Bengals +5.5 (-115)

There's now little room to question the Chiefs' Super Bowl upside after a run where they've dominated all but the Chargers since early November. They've lost once in their last 10 games, proving to be a well-rounded defensive team after an embarrassing early-season stretch filled with blown assignments and turnovers. While the Chiefs may have covered in their last six games, the line has grown to an uncomfortable level against the Bengals.

Cincinnati isn't as consistent as Kansas City but they have the ability to play up to their competition thanks to a dynamic offense led by Joe Burrow. Their 29th-ranked passing defense has been significantly more effective over the last seven weeks, restricting each foe to less than 300 total yards passing and 400 yards overall. With the Bengals fighting for the AFC North crown, I believe they'll play their best and stay close to the Chiefs.

Under 51 (-110)

The line has exploded for this game after the world saw Joe Burrow go bananas against the Ravens again last week. It's important to not overreact to that, as the Bengals will be going up against a much healthier Chiefs secondary. Kansas City has given up 23 passing touchdowns on the year, tied for the eighth fewest in the league.

Cincinnati has a bend-don't-break passing defense and stellar rushing defense, so Patrick Mahomes will have his work cut out even with Travis Kelce available to play. I'm projecting a final right around this total, but believe the playoff atmosphere will keep it lower scoring than expected.

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Chiefs-Bengals picks made on 12/30/2021 at 1:03 a.m. ET.