Commanders vs. Bengals Prediction, MNF Picks & Odds: Monday Night Football
The Washington Commanders and Cincinnati Bengals meet at Paycor Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET in the second game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader.
- Our Commanders vs. Bengals prediction breaks down why Cincinnati will cover the spread en route to its first victory based on the Monday Night Football odds
- Teams that start 0-3 have missed the playoffs 98% of the time in the Super Bowl era, so a loss would be crippling to the Bengals’ NFL playoff odds
- Washington has won three straight MNF contests, but we expect its run defense will be tested with a heavy dose of Zack Moss in this contest
This game officially wraps up our NFL Week 3 predictions.
Best Commanders vs. Bengals picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Bengals -7 (-112 via DraftKings) vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Zack Moss Over 13.5 rushing attempts (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Commanders vs. Bengals spread prediction: Monday Night Football
Bengals to cover the spread: -7 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐
It could be due to a lack of preseason reps, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals are flat-out bad to begin seasons.
Cincinnati is now 1-11 straight-up in Weeks 1 and 2 under head coach Zac Taylor, with Burrow responsible for nine of those losses. However, in Weeks 3 and later, Burrow has won 66% of his starts and has never lost in Week 3 specifically (3-0-1 SU).
In last week’s loss to the Chiefs, Burrow also showed his ability to cover spreads in games following a SU loss.
Burrow is now 15-6-1 ATS in games following a loss, and his teams are averse to playing poorly three weeks in a row, going 6-0-1 ATS in seven games that they have entered on a losing streak of two or more games.
The Commanders' defense isn’t the Chiefs'
Burrow’s yards per attempt average increased from 5.7 to 7.2 in Weeks 1 and 2, and though the Chiefs pressured him on 37% of dropbacks, he still completed 5-of-10 passes for 40 yards around the three sacks when pressured.
In contrast, facing the Commanders defense should be a walk in the park.
Washington ranks among the two-worst defenses in yards and touchdowns allowed to quarterback-wide receiver combinations since the start of last season, and it's already allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers this year.
That should help get Cincinnati’s passing game going, considering that just 43% of Burrow’s completions have been to wide receivers this year, while the other 57% have gone to tight ends and running backs.
Commanders' offense is in for wake-up call
Jayden Daniels’ start to his career has gone quite swimmingly, as his 132 rushing yards are the most by a quarterback through the first two games of a season in the Super Bowl era.
And while Washington has scored on 58.8% of its drives this season (third-most), most of that is inflated by facing a poor Giants defense last week. Running back Brian Robinson is coming off his seventh career 100-scrimmage yard game, but four of those have come against New York.
Washington totaled 299 yards, averaged 5.3 yards per play, converted 25% of its third downs, and possessed the ball for just over 26 minutes in Week 1.
That is more of the offensive output I expect when facing the Bengals' defense and will not be blinded by the fact that the Commanders scored on all seven possessions (excluding kneeldowns) last week.
Washington has lost each of its last eight games outright as underdogs, so plenty of bettors will be enticed by DraftKings’ -350 moneyline odds as long as they don’t mind paying that steep price.
DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites that offers a touchdown spread, as all others at at -7.5.
A winning $10 wager would pay out $18.93.
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
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Commanders vs. Bengals player prop
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Zack Moss Over 13.5 rushing attempts (-102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Zack Moss has carried 12 or fewer times in both games this season, but the implied probability to run 14 or more times this week is as high as 54.55% based on BetMGM’s -120 odds.
That is because game script should finally work in the Bengals’ favor as a touchdown favorite, and since Moss is clearly the lead back, there is no reason he should not be in line for a big workload.
Despite topping out at 12 carries this year, Moss has at least a 65% snap rate each week. I was tempted to back Moss’s anytime touchdown odds since Cincinnati is tied for the highest team total of the week (O/U 27.5).
However, given that those touchdown odds are as high as -165 at FanDuel, the better value is just to back Moss’s rushing attempts, as a winning $10 wager at the -102 odds would net $19.80 in profit.
Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.50%
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Commanders vs. Bengals odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Commanders vs. Bengals
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 77 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph S
- Favorite: Bengals (-350 via BetMGM)
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