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Commanders vs. Buccaneers Touchdown Picks & Odds: Wild Card Weekend

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 12, 2025 12:28 PM EST • 3 min 14 sec read.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter as we look at our commanders vs. buccaneers touchdown picks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Photo by Bob Donnan/Imagn Images.

The Wild Card Weekend game between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the only first-round playoff tilt with a total of 50-plus points, so there should be plenty of chances to hit on Commanders vs. Buccaneers touchdown picks.

The Commanders are a field-goal favorite, with kickoff from Raymond James Stadium scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock).

Baker Mayfield is coming off his first career win in a game he trailed by 10-plus points, while Jayden Daniels is looking to snap a seven-game losing streak for rookie quarterbacks in road playoff games.

The below picks are part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions. 

Commanders vs. Buccaneers touchdown picks

Odds as of Sunday and subject to change.

  • Bucky Irving touchdown pick: Second-half touchdown (+200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Jalen McMillan touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown (+160 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Terry McLaurin touchdown pick: McLaurin to score 2+ touchdowns (+850 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Best Commanders vs. Buccaneers touchdown props

Bucky Irving Second-half touchdown ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +200 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 33.33%

Irving averaged 5.4 yards per rush this season (fourth among running backs) and ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards (1,122). Those are both huge reasons he has as high as a 64.16% implied probability for his anytime touchdown odds.

The fact that Irving ranks seventh in explosive rush rate and fourth in yards per contact after attempt gives me confidence that he is versatile enough to break a long touchdown or convert one from short yardage at the goal line.

Irving has double-digit carries in nine games and finished with at least one touchdown in seven. Four of Irving’s last six touchdowns came in the second half, so I am taking a flier on these +200 odds compared to the +175 for him to score in the first half.

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Jalen McMillan anytime touchdown ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +160 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 38.46%

McMillan scored a touchdown in five consecutive games and seven touchdowns in total in that span.

He has been a great complimentary piece to Mike Evans and could see even more red zone targets if Evans is wrapped up in a battle against Commanders cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

Meanwhile, Mayfield finished with the second-most touchdown passes (41).

With the Over on his 1.5 passing touchdowns being juiced as high as -200 at DraftKings (carrying a 66.67% implied probability), it is wise to back a Buccaneers pass catcher to score. The +160 odds at FanDuel trump the +135 odds offered at Caesars. Through the +160 odds, a winning $10 wager would net $16 in profits.

Terry McLaurin to score 2+ touchdowns ⭐⭐

Best odds: +850 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 10.53%

McLaurin has scored multiple touchdowns in four games this season. And he saw double-digit targets in the three games, two within the last four.

Tampa Bay’s pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, and the Buccaneers are dealing with a litany of injuries in the secondary. The Buccaneers have four defensive backs on IR and three others questionable (Jamel Dean, Mike Edwards, and Antoine Winfield Jr.).

Tampa Bay allows 24.5 completions per game (most in the NFL), and quarterbacks have completed at least 22 passes against the Buccaneers 10 times this year. That provides an avenue for McLaurin to score multiple touchdowns, even though I would not put anyone off his +115 anytime touchdown odds.

More Commanders vs. Buccaneers picks

Commanders vs. Buccaneers game info

  • When: Sunday, Jan. 12
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa Bay, Fla.)
  • How to watch: NBC/Peacock
  • Weather: 50 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph NE
  • Favorite: Buccaneers -3 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”