Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction, TNF Picks & Odds: Thursday Night Football
The Washington Commanders (7-3) enter Week 11 a half-game behind the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2), which means first place is on the line in the NFC East on Thursday Night Football.
- Philadelphia has won five straight games and is now the favorite to win the NFC East at our best sportsbooks
- The Eagles are 8-1 straight-up in their last nine Thursday games
- Washington is coming off its first loss when scoring 27 or more points (5-1)
Our Thursday Night Football odds peg the Commanders as road underdogs for the first time in their last five games.
As we kick off our Week 11 NFL predictions, my Commanders vs. Eagles Thursday Night Football prediction suggests to back Washington at anything more than a field goal.
The Eagles are 3.5-point favorites for this NFC East clash. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, with the game airing on Prime Video.
Best Commanders vs. Eagles picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Commanders +3.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Eagles ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Commanders vs. Eagles against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football
Commanders to cover the spread: +3.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
A learning experience for Daniels
The Steelers' defense was the best unit rookie QB Jayden Daniels has faced all season. Thus, it was not surprising to see Washington be held to a season-low in total yards (242) and forced into a season-high six punts.
The numbers will say Daniels had his worst game of the season by many statistical measures. He completed just 50% of his passes and averaged 5.9 yards per attempt while running for just five yards and compiling a 21% first-down percentage.
While Daniels went just 1-for-8 passing when pressured, Philadelphia’s pass rush is not as feared as Pittsburgh’s. And the fact that the Commanders still scored 27 points on a defense that had two weeks to prepare for the rookie signal caller after coming off a bye week should yield more optimism than pessimism going forward.
Philadelphia’s statistics are misleading
Many Eagles backers will claim that the team is a legitimate Super Bowl odds contender by pointing out the differences in their numbers with and without A.J. Brown.
With a healthy Brown in the lineup, Philadelphia is 6-0 and averaging 30.2 points per game with a 46% score percentage (the percentage of drives ending in a touchdown or field goal). Without Brown, the Eagles are 1-2 and averaging 17.3 points per game with a 28% score percentage.
However, five of the Eagles’ six wins with Brown on the field came against teams currently 4-6 or worse, while the two losses were against the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are both vying for the NFC South crown.
Plus, this becomes a more confident play if the Commanders get the newly acquired cornerback Marshon Lattimore on the field after he missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury.
Don’t overreact
Public NFL bettors tend to be some of the most over-reactionary people, which tends to get them in trouble when they analyze a game based on one week’s results.
Philadelphia held the Dallas Cowboys out of the endzone, and to their fewest passing yards (49) since 2001. But Dallas was also playing without its starting quarterback, while Washington had a 10-point lead against a Mike Tomlin-led team that was 25-6 in his tenure against rookie quarterbacks entering last week.
While some of our sites with the best sportsbook promos have switched from +3 to +3.5 thus far this week, they're all currently aligned with a spread of +3.5.
This lines up with my Commanders vs. Eagles early pick: my stance hasn't budged.
I'm making this wager at Caesars, the only shop where one can back the underdogs at the standard -110 juice.
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Commanders vs. Eagles player prop
Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
Hurts is coming off his second career game with multiple passing and rushing touchdowns. And in all, during the team’s current five-game winning streak, Hurts is responsible for 16 total touchdowns and just two turnovers.
Hurts has at least one rushing touchdown in four consecutive games and multiple touchdown runs in three of those four. He has also scored at least once in six of nine games this season, making the 50% implied probability at DraftKings a great value.
Despite sharing the backfield with one of the most explosive running backs in the sport, Hurts is getting more of the red zone carries recently than is Saquon Barkley.
This is a three-star play, as Hurts has six red zone carries over the last two weeks to Barkley’s three. And if Philadelphia ever gets inside Washington’s two-yard line, it is as good a bet as any that the “tush push” is coming.
Hurts’ anytime touchdown odds are juiced as high as -135 (carrying a 57.45% implied probability) at Caesars. DraftKings is the only top sports betting site offering plus-money odds for Hurts to score a touchdown, and bettors would double whatever their initial investment was if he does find the endzone with a rushing (or receiving!) score.
Our Phil Wood is also backing this play as part of his Commanders vs. Eagles TNF prop bets, and he's being even more aggressive.
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50.00%
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Commanders vs. Eagles odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Commanders vs. Eagles
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 43 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph NE
- Favorite: Eagles -3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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