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Cowboys vs. Titans SGP Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Roster Changes Impact Scoring?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: December 29, 2022 10:59 AM EST • 2 min 59 sec read.

The Tennessee Titans will be a shell of themselves offensively on Thursday night as their most prominent player is expected to miss the game against the Dallas Cowboys. Here are our top Cowboys vs. Titans SGP picks based on the best NFL odds.

As if the absence of Derrick Henry wasn't bad enough, the Titans are expected to field journeyman backup quarterback Josh Dobbs in prime time. That should be considered a crime against humanity. Instead, it’s our special treat as football fans tune in to the final edition of Thursday Night Football for 2022.

The Titans (7-8) are expected to rest their stud running back given that their season boils down to their Week 18 matchup against the rival Jacksonville Jaguars. The Cowboys (11-4) are virtually locked into the top wild-card spot regardless of Thursday’s outcome, so motivation could be a question on Thursday.

Here are our best Cowboys vs. Titans NFL SGP picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Cowboys vs. Titans Picks, our Thursday Night Football Prop Picks, and our Cowboys-Titans Player Prop Picks!

Cowboys vs. Titans SGP Picks Week 17

  • Cowboys -12.5 (-110)
  • Under 40.5 (-115)
  • Robert Woods Under 29.5 receiving yards (-160)

Combined odds: +500

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Cowboys vs. Titans Odds

SGP Predictions for Cowboys vs. Titans

Cowboys -12.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We have another disgusting game in store for primetime as both teams are likely to be missing key offensive players. The risk in this line is the idea that the Cowboys aren’t properly focused in a game that doesn’t much matter to them and a respectable Titans defense just mucks things up enough to make this a game too ugly for a double-digit scoring margin to occur. The Cowboys, though, have the talent in the passing game to exploit Tennessee’s 27th-ranked pass defense DVOA in this matchup.

The Titans are heavily favored (-158) at FanDuel to score fewer than 1.5 total touchdowns in this game. It might not be your typical robust performance by the Dallas offense—the Titans stuff the run pretty effectively and Ezekiel Elliott just hasn’t been efficient on the year—but provided Dallas scratches across a couple of touchdowns, it should be enough to cover this margin. 

Tennessee is 3-4 ATS at home this season. FanDuel’s line has moved to Cowboys -13.5, while DraftKings still list the line at -12.5.

Under 40.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

No Henry. No Ryan Tannehill. Likely no Tony Pollard for Dallas. This game could teeter into unwatchable territory as Zeke repeatedly rams into the Titans’ second-ranked rush defense DVOA. Then Dobbs hands off to back running back Hassan Haskins a few times to be swallowed up by Dallas’ fifth-ranked rush DVOA.

Even competent quarterbacks struggle to throw on the Cowboys’ secondary, so it would be a surprise to see Dobbs do it. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott might take a few deep shots, but given the way Tennessee will angle to play ball control, that could force Dallas to be conservative with its possessions, as well. The Titans topped out at 14 points in each of their last two games.

DraftKings lists the total at 40.5, while FanDuel has it at 39.5. Provided these numbers hold, DraftKings is shaping up as a more favorable option for our parlay even though we’ll get diminished odds on our player prop Under at DK.

Woods Under 29.5 receiving yards (-160) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The receiving yards total for Titans receiver Robert Woods is the most effective strategic fade of the Titans’ passing game under Dobbs. This is simply because he has one of the highest receiving totals of the Tennessee pass-catching options. In an offense that should struggle to throw against the No. 2 pass defense DVOA in the league, I’m fading the Tennessee passing game.

Though we’re getting only -160 odds on Under 29.5 receiving yards, our combined odds still reach +500 with this prop. Woods has eclipsed 30 receiving yards only twice since October 9. Even with Tannehill, Woods was an inconsistent performer.

Cowboys-Titans SGP picks made 12/29/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.