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Cowboys vs. Bills Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 15: Hot Offenses Go Cold in Buffalo?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 17, 2023 1:54 PM EST • 3 min 46 sec read.

The Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills will conjure up memories of the early 1990s Super Bowls when they meet in Week 15, and we offer our best Cowboys vs. Bills predictions based on the best NFL odds at our best sportsbooks.

After defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 33-13 last week, the Dallas Cowboys moved into a first-place tie in the NFC East with a 10-3 record. The Cowboys are currently on a five-game winning streak, tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. According to ESPN Analytics, they now have a 30% chance to win the division. 

Of the six teams at 7-6 contending for the AFC's final Wild Card spots, Buffalo has notably bolstered its playoff prospects, currently standing at 43% according to PFF. The Bills' critical 20-17 win against the Kansas City Chiefs on the road was pivotal, breaking their away-game victory drought since facing the Washington Commanders in Week 3.

In addition to our NFL Week 15 predictions and NFL Week 15 player props, and to accompany Phil Wood's Dak Prescott vs. Josh Allen player props, here are our best Cowboys vs. Bills prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cowboys vs. Bills prediction

Under 49.5 (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Making a pick on the point spread was difficult for this high-profile matchup, as each side has pros and cons.

Dallas is playing some of the best football in the league right now, in particular quarterback Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys have won 15 consecutive home games and own a +171 point differential in home games this season with only a +17 differential on the road. Prescott's play positions him among the favorites by the NFL MVP odds.

Meanwhile, Buffalo may be overvalued after doing what it has always done under head coach Sean McDermott, winning after a regular-season bye (7-0), while the Bills are 3-6 in one-possession games. Therefore, we are passing on the near coin-flip spread and instead expect a low-scoring game between these two.

Prescott has thrown multiple touchdowns in seven consecutive games, posting a 22-2 TD-INT ratio in that span. However, his home/road splits are egregious, and playing outdoors on a windy day in Buffalo should lower his ceiling considerably.

Prescott has completed 74% of his passes with a 20-2 TD-INT ratio and a 122.5 passer rating at home this season, but his completion percentage drops to 63.5% one the road, along with steady decreases in average passing yards (-1.6 yards per attempt), TD-INT ratio (8-4 ) and passer rating (88.8). Entering Week 14, Dallas was converting 49% of its third downs, already on pace for its highest rate in a season since 2006. And while it improved that mark by going 9-of-16 on third down last week, it came against a Philadelphia defense that ranked 31st or worse in points per game (31.0), yards per game (432.3), and third-down percentage (58%) over the prior three weeks.

Buffalo has averaged 416 yards per game since Week 12, the third-most in the NFL. But it faces a Cowboys defense that just held Jalen Hurts to his third-lowest QBR of the season (38), and one that allows the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (183.9). Thus, we expect the Bills to lean even more on a rejuvenated ground game after outrushing Kansas City by 36 yards.

In addition, James Cook is the first Bills running back with four straight games of 100+ scrimmage yards since LeSean McCoy in 2016. But as long as wide receiver Stefon Diggs struggles to get open consistently (he has four or fewer catches and 34 or fewer yards in three of the last four games), Buffalo’s offensive ceiling is much lower, and it will continue to resort to grinding out drives and limiting possessions.

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Cowboys vs. Bills best odds

FanDuel (-112)

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars bet365
49 49.5 49 49 49
Under (-108) Under (-112) Under (-110) Under (-110) Under (-110)

As Under backers, the best number is found at FanDuel, the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a total as high as 49.5. We would play this number down to 49, making the slightly cheaper -108 odds at DraftKings appealing, but we will not pass at any price as long as we get a higher number like the one FanDuel offers.

Buffalo has been a great Under team of late, cashing it in five of its last six games at the best sports betting sites.

Cowboys vs. Bills odds

Cowboys vs. Bills odds analysis

All movement has gone toward the Over thus far, as all our best sportsbooks opened with a total of 48.5. There was slight buyback on the Under at BetMGM when the total first got to 49.5, but it quickly rebounded back to 49.5 after a slight dip on Monday afternoon to 49. Fifty-eight percent of the early wagers have backed the Over.

Caesars and DraftKings are the only two of our best sports betting apps offering a spread of Bills -2, while all others are in unison at -2.5. Any line movement off the opening number has favored Buffalo, as most shops had the Bills as 1.5-point favorites on Sunday night and Monday morning. DraftKings is the only shop that went back down to -2 after reaching -2.5, but no sportsbook has reached the key number of three yet. There is a chance the line will get to -3 before kickoff if the Bills keep getting most of the betting action (early wagers are 68/32 in support of Buffalo).

Cowboys vs. Bills game info

  • When: Sunday, Dec. 17 at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: 48 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph SSW

Cowboys-Bills prediction made 12/12 at 4:02 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”