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Cowboys vs. Dolphins NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: December 24, 2023 12:02 PM EST • 3 min 23 sec read.

The Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins face off Sunday in a critical Week 16 duel for each team's postseason goals, and we have you covered with our top Cowboys vs. Dolphins NFL player props for Week 16 based on the best NFL odds.

The Dallas Cowboys (10-4) and Miami Dolphins (10-4) enter Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season among the top contenders in the Super Bowl odds market, and each team still has an outside shot at securing the No. 1 seed in its respective conference - though those hopes will be effectively dashed for Sunday's losing side.

Miami still controls its destiny for the top seed in the AFC if it can win out, and it's favored to emerge with a victory on Sunday. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have clinched their NFL playoff odds but are searching for answers after last week's blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills.

Along with our Cowboys vs. Dolphins prediction and Dak Prescott-Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop picks, here are our best Cowboys vs. Dolphins NFL player props for Week 16 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cowboys vs. Dolphins NFL player props: Week 16

Raheem Mostert to score a touchdown (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This may feel like an exceedingly obvious wager for Sunday's game. And, well, it is. Not every value play has to be complicated.

As of Sunday, Mostert shares the league lead for total touchdowns, boasting a franchise-best 20 in a season and finding the end zone in 11 out of 14 starts. His recent performance saw him scoring twice in a dominating victory against the New York Jets, marking his sixth game with multiple touchdowns this season. Notably, he's also registered three touchdowns across four games when Miami faced losses.

Mostert has maintained a solid workload and snap share since De'Von Achane returned in Week 13, and he should see plenty of scoring chances against a Cowboys defense ranked 31st in rushing success rate - which was the case even before Bills running back James Cook ripped off 221 total yards and two TDs.

Mostert won't match that (right?), and I'm less bullish on his rushing yardage prop (57.5 via FanDuel), which he's still managed to clear in eight of 14 games. But when the 'Fins get into the red zone, expect them to call Mostert's number.

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Dak Prescott Over 270.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This presents an appealing opportunity to buy low on Prescott, who faced embarrassment on a national stage last week, recording a season-low of 134 yards and averaging 3.9 yards per attempt in Buffalo.

Still, the Cowboys QB had cleared this prop total in seven of his previous eight games, including three straight. And he faces a stellar matchup this week against a banged-up Dolphins secondary that likely won't be whole on Sunday.

Star safety Jevon Holland (knee) hasn't played in three weeks and is questionable to play in Week 16. So are safety DeShon Elliott (concussion) and corner Xavien Howard (hip), both of whom missed last week. If any or all of them can't go, that'll thrust the Dolphins' seldom-used backups into a tough spot against one of the NFL's most prolific pass offenses.

This prop is dealing at 277.5 or higher at four of our five best sportsbooks, leaving FanDuel as the lone outlier with a total of seven or eight yards below the market consensus. That makes an already appealing play that much sweeter.

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Durham Smythe Under 13.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

It's tough to have full confidence betting the Under on such a low total, one that Smythe has hit eight times in 13 games. But he's also been held without a catch four times, and I wouldn't be shocked if that happens again Sunday.

The Cowboys' defense has been among the best at corraling opposing tight ends, ranking in the top three in fewest targets (74), receptions (50), and yards (557) surrendered to the position. Last week, the Bills attempted just two passes to Bills tight ends, both incomplete, as they committed fully to the ground game against a vulnerable Cowboys front.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar approach from the 'Fins, who rank 10th in rushing rate (44%) and sixth in EPA per rush and should attack that mismatch Sunday. Miami has targeted its tight ends just 38 times through 15 weeks, by far the fewest of any team this season, and I don't see that changing in this matchup.

Cowboys-Dolphins player props made Friday at 5:45 p.m. ET.

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C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.