2025 NFL Draft Odds After Combine: Did NFL Combine Impact Who Will Go 1st Overall?
While this year's NFL Scouting Combine wasn't short on freaks like Shemar Stewart and Nick Emmanwori, it did leave a lot to be desired when it comes to potential No. 1 picks in the NFL draft.
Of the four biggest favorites to go No. 1 by the 2025 NFL Draft odds, not one of them participated in the on-field portion of the NFL combine. Despite Cam Ward, Abdul Carter, Travis Hunter, and Shedeur Sanders each opting to sit out during the event at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, it didn't stop the NFL draft odds from seeing movement, especially with rumors that the Tennessee Titans could trade the No. 1 pick.
It appears coming out of the NFL combine that this is no longer a four-man race with our best sports betting sites zeroing in on either Ward or Carter as the likely top pick at the NFL draft on April 24 in Green Bay.
🥇 Who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
Our live NFL draft odds for the No. 1 pick update in real time.
🏈 Did the NFL combine impact who will be the first overall pick?
It was an eventful NFL combine with the offensive line and running back groups being the fastest in the event's history, but some of the biggest names in Indianapolis opted not to participate. That included the four biggest favorites to the No. 1 pick in April's NFL draft.
None of Ward, Carter, Hunter, or Sanders participated in any of the on-field portion of the combine. The biggest news of the week regarding any of them had to do with the Penn State pass rusher.
Carter, who was already not going to participate in the event due to a shoulder injury, was found to have a stress reaction in his foot during medical testing at the combine.
Though it led to a brief scare that the potential No. 1 pick in the NFL draft could be shelved for a prolonged period, it was deemed not significant enough to need surgery, and Carter is still slated to participate in Penn State's pro day on March 28. However, Carter's odds to be the first pick did lengthen slightly from +175 to +190 coming out of the combine while Ward's shortened from -130 to -233.
Meanwhile, both of Deion Sanders' star players at Colorado remain longer shots to hear their names called first, with Hunter and Sanders both having less than a 10% implied probability of being the No. 1 pick. And there's still a debate about how Hunter will be deployed at the NFL level.
The Heisman Trophy winner was grouped with the defensive backs at the combine, but there doesn't seem to be a consensus around what he'll play in the NFL, though new Titans GM Mike Borgonzi reportedly views him as a cornerback. Still, it seems unlikely Tennessee would make him the first wide receiver to go No. 1 since 1996 or the first defensive back to be picked first since 1956.
That's why I think Carter remains the best value on the board with his plus-money odds at Caesars, especially if Tennessee isn't necessarily sold on a quarterback in a weak class for them.
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🙌 Is Cam Ward the top QB in the NFL draft?
Every No. 1 pick since 1997 has been a QB, pass rusher, or offensive tackle. That points to this pick likely being a QB or Carter. But is Ward the obvious choice to be the first passer taken in the draft?
Our best sports betting apps think so with Miami's Heisman finalist as short as -600 to be the first QB selected in April. Those odds imply an 85.71% probability Ward will be the top quarterback taken over Shedeur Sanders (+450), Jaxson Dart (+2500), and Jalen Milroe (+7500).
A month ago, it looked like there would be some debate in the Ward vs. Sanders QB1 battle with how differing their styles are on the field. Ward's a freelancing big-play hunting passer with a rocket arm while Sanders is an efficient and accurate passer who's at his best in structure.
Although neither threw at the combine, reports point to the competition not being close with the NFL viewing Ward as the clear QB1 and a player that thrived in the interview portion of the event. There are even some who believe Dart could be the second QB selected over Sanders.
Between his physical tools, production, and how strong he reportedly interviewed in Indianapolis, Ward is the clearcut QB1 in this draft in the minds of both media and the NFL. There's even a chance the Hurricanes' star is the only QB taken in the top 17 picks.
📈 Did any prospect put themselves in the No. 1 pick conversation at the NFL combine?
So if recent history says only three positions truly have a chance of going No. 1 in the NFL draft, is there an offensive tackle that could sneak into the conversation with Ward and Carter? Though it's a long shot, I think it's at least worth considering Missouri's Armand Membou following his jaw-dropping showing at the NFL combine.
While LSU's Will Campbell entered the week viewed by most as OT1 in the draft, his arm length remains a massive concern. Most NFL teams want an offensive tackle to have 34-inch arms, and at worst 33, but Campbell is at 32 5/8. That would put him in a tiny pool of players with sub-33-inch arms to start at offensive tackle in the NFL next season.
He has historically short arms and the shortest wingspan in recent memory among offensive linemen. That doesn't mean he won't be a star, but what it does mean is it could take the All-American off of some teams' boards as an offensive tackle and lead to a player like Membou being the first offensive lineman drafted.
Membou was monstrous in Indianapolis and finished top four in the 40-yard dash (4.91), vertical jump (34 inches), broad jump (9-foot-7), and bench press (31) among O-linemen. And maybe most importantly, his arms came in at 33 1/2 inches.
A top 10 player on tape with his combination of explosiveness, power, balance, and nastiness, Membou should be among the eight biggest favorites to go No. 1. But our best sportsbooks don't even have him on the board yet, so look for him to be a massive riser in the coming weeks.
🔵 Will the Giants trade for the No. 1 pick?
Team to make No. 1 pick odds
Team to make No. 1 pick odds from DraftKings; last updated March 3 and subject to change.
- Titans: -175
- Giants: +110
- Jets: +1000
- Raiders: +1600
- Browns: +1600
- 49ers: +5000
- Cowboys: +5000
- Saints: +7500
- Patriots: +9000
- Steelers: +10000
One big piece of NFL news to come out during the NFL combine was that Matthew Stafford will be back with the Los Angeles Rams for this upcoming season as the team looks to climb the Super Bowl odds.
With Stafford off the market, several teams were floated as potential franchises that may look to trade with the Titans for the No. 1 pick to select Ward. The team that's been most frequently linked to a potential trade is the New York Giants.
The rumors shortened the Giants' odds to pick No. 1 from +480 to +110 and lengthened the Titans' from -400 to -175. That's some serious movement in less than a week, but in a class with two blue-chip defensive players and a clear-cut top QB, it would certainly make a ton of sense for Tennessee to move back to No. 3 if Borgonzi doesn't plan on drafting a QB.
If that were to happen, the Cleveland Browns could either take Hunter at No. 2, who GM Andrew Berry said he views as a wide receiver before a cornerback, or Carter if the team plans on respecting Myles Garrett's trade request. So if you're the Titans, are you happy getting whichever one the Browns pass on?
There are too many variables right now to bet the Giants at such short odds to make the No. 1 pick - paying just an $11 profit on a $10 bet. If anything, I think it would be worth betting on the Titans to stick and pick with how short these odds were late last week.
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