Dolphins vs. Packers Prediction, TNF Picks & Odds: NFL Thanksgiving
The Green Bay Packers (8-3) and Miami Dolphins (5-6) look to extend their respective winning streaks when they meet at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) in a Thanksgiving edition of Thursday Night Football.
Miami has won three straight entering Week 13, but our Dolphins vs. Packers prediction expects cold weather at Lambeau Field to favor the home favorites by the Thursday Night Football odds as part of our NFL Week 13 predictions.
Dolphins vs. Packers predictions
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Packers -3 (-120 via BetMGM) vs. Dolphins ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown scorer (+255 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Dolphins vs. Packers ATS prediction: Thursday Night Football (NFL Thanksgiving)
Packers to cover the spread: -3 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Packers can shut down Dolphins’ passing attack
I am not putting much stock into Green Bay allowing fewer than 200 yards passing and holding Brandon Allen to a 38.2 QBR last week, considering the San Francisco 49ers quarterback was in a difficult spot filling in for injured starter Brock Purdy.
However, Green Bay’s pass defense was playing very well recently even before San Francisco’s injury news surfaced, which has me expecting another solid performance on Thursday Night Football.
Entering last week, the Packers ranked in the top five in opponent CPOE (completion percentage over expectancy), passing touchdowns, and passing yards per game.
A solid effort by the secondary will be necessary to slow down Tua Tagovailoa, who has 11 touchdowns to one interception over his last five games. He's led the team to 30.3 points and 321.3 yards on average during a three-game winning streak.
Trust Green Bay’s running game more
In a game that projects to be as cold as this one - temperatures could drop into the low 20s - a big advantage goes to the team that can run the ball more consistently.
The Packers ran for 169 yards last week, marking their sixth game with 150-plus rushing yards this season. In the process, Josh Jacobs became the first player to run for 100 or more yards and three or more touchdowns against the 49ers since 2016.
The conservative yet effective offensive approach helped the Packers finish the game with a plus-three turnover differential, tied for their best this season, and Jordan Love turned in his first game without an interception this year.
Miami is historically bad in cold weather
Unsurprisingly, the team hailing from Florida is not only unaccustomed to the frigid temperatures in Green Bay but also hasn't played well in the cold in recent years.
Tagovailoa has not won any of his four starts in games played in 40-degree weather or colder, according to Evan Abrams, and has only covered the spread once in those games.
Miami as a whole has lost each of its last nine games in freezing temperatures (32 degrees or colder), and it has won just 11 of 39 such games in franchise history.
I am comfortable laying the slightly extra -120 juice to back Green Bay at a field goal instead of playing the Packers at -3.5 or higher. A $10 winning wager at those odds via BetMGM would pay out an $8.33 profit.
Dolphins vs. Packers best bet
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Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +255 via Caesars | Implied probability: 28.17%
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Love completed just 13 of 23 passes last week while the team dominated the 49ers with its running game, but Kraft still managed to find the end zone for the sixth time this year - the second-most touchdown receptions among tight ends.
In the process, he scored on a defense that entered the week allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Kraft has 12 red-zone targets this year, and Miami ranks in the bottom half of the league in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.
The fact that Love has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of nine games this year suggests that these +255 odds via Caesars for Kraft to score a touchdown are great value - especially with DraftKings offering much lower +160 odds with an 38.46% implied probability for the same exact wager.
Meanwhile, Andrew Brennan is looking at an opposing tight end in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Thanksgiving.
Dolphins vs. Packers odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Bears vs. Lions live odds
Dolphins vs. Packers opening odds:
- Dolphins: +3 (+100 via BetMGM)
- Packers: -3 (-120 via BetMGM)
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Dolphins vs. Packers
- When: Thursday, Nov. 28
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock/Universo
- Weather: 21 degrees, 14% chance of precipitation, wind 14 mph WNW
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