NFL Draft Long Shot Picks: Best First-Round Sleeper Bets for Tonight
Although the NFL draft odds make it clear that there isn't much uncertainty at the top of the draft this year, there's a strong chance for a few shocking moments to take place tonight when the 2025 NFL Draft kicks off from Lambeau Field in Green Bay at 8 p.m. ET (NFL Network, ESPN, ABC), and that's why we're making our NFL Draft long shot picks.
Due to this being one of the weaker classes in recent memory, it's harder to find reasonably priced long-shot picks with our best sports betting sites listing so many players with minus-money odds. However, there are a few prospects to target.
🎯 Best long shot bets to be drafted in the first round tonight
🌪️ Jaylin Noel to be drafted in the first round (+3500)
Considered a consensus top-seven receiver in the NFL draft, Iowa State's Jaylin Noel is the best long shot to be picked tonight because his odds are so much longer than players who are similarly ranked by top NFL analysts. It doesn't hurt that teams picking in the back end of the first round could also use a wide receiver.
Playoff-caliber teams looking to inject some speed into their offense could be enamoured with Noel, too. He ran a 4.39 40-yard dash with his vertical jump (41 1/2 inches) being in the 96th percentile and his broad jump (134 inches) being in the 97th percentile, per MockDraftable. And more importantly, he has the production to back up being one of the top receivers.
Noel was top six in the Big 12 in yards per route run (2.62), contested catches (13), and first down receptions (46) last season, per PFF. If he cracks the first round, a $10 bet pays a $350 profit. His teammate, and fellow receiver, Jayden Higgins (+700) is another interesting option.
📊 Best odds: +3500 via bet365 | Implied probability: 2.78%
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🐗 Landon Jackson to be drafted in the first round (+650)
Similar to wide receiver, edge rusher is always a position that playoff teams are looking for late in the first round, and there are two who could sneak in with Texas A&M's Nic Scourton (+250) and Arkansas's Landon Jackson. Scourton's a safer bet, and I think a good one to back, but Jackson also has a chance, and his odds would pay a $65 profit on a $10 winning bet.
Jackson put up the second-best Relative Athletic Score (RAS) among edge players at the NFL Scouting Combine this year with a 9.78, thanks to a vertical jump in the 97th percentile (40 1/2 inches) and a broad jump in the 96th (129 inches) to go with his 6-foot-6, 264-pound frame. That size and explosiveness could have teams like the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, and Buffalo Bills interested late tonight.
The LSU transfer has also been a dominant force for Arkansas the last two seasons with 24 TFLs, 57 pressures, and 65 defensive stops. Jackson has the traits and upside teams love to bet on in the back half of the NFL draft.
📊 Best odds: +650 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 13.33%
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🐻 Carson Schwesinger to be drafted in first round (+250)
As the draft approaches, I'm becoming increasingly confident that UCLA's Carson Schwesinger will sneak into the first round. If the former walk-on does, a $10 winning bet on him pays a $25 profit, and he'll likely jump up the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds because he's a tackling machine.
Despite being just a one-year starter, Schwesinger has the instincts NFL teams covet in a linebacker, plus the athleticism to justify taking him in a draft where he's considered the consensus No. 2 off-ball linebacker behind Alabama's Jihaad Campbell. Schwesinger's 9.86 RAS is just a hair behind Campbell's (9.88), and he put up an impressive 39 1/2-inch vertical (93rd percentile) and 242 pounds.
The production is there with him, too, after he led the Power 4 in tackles last season (136) while adding 50 defensive stops and 18 pressures. If a team wants an instant impact starter in their linebacker room, they could have a tough time passing on Schwesinger.
📊 Best odds: +250 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 28.57%
💤 Top sleeper team-to-player draft bets
🟤 Browns to draft Shedeur Sanders (+650)
Obviously the Cleveland Browns won't be taking Shedeur Sanders No. 2 overall, but they have the No. 33 pick in the draft which could give them a shot at keeping Sanders and Heisman winner Travis Hunter as teammates as they make the leap from Colorado to the pros.
There's a real chance that Sanders falls out of the first round, especially if the Pittsburgh Steelers opt to draft a defensive lineman at No. 21 instead of him. If that's the case, he would fall right into the Browns' lap, and Sanders is a good fit for Kevin Stefanski's QB-friendly offense. It doesn't hurt either that Browns QB coach Bill Musgrave has a relationship with Deion Sanders.
It wouldn't be hard to sell owner Jimmy Haslam on the idea either, with it definitely having a positive impact on his wallet and helping the team move away from the Deshaun Watson era. That No. 33 pick could also be used to climb back into the first round via trade to draft Sanders, and if Cleveland manages to land him, a $10 bet pays a $65 profit.
📊 Best odds: +650 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 13.33%
🐏 Rams to draft Jaxson Dart (+1400)
A little more outlandish than Sanders to the Browns, but the Los Angeles Rams may want to start looking to the future as Matthew Stafford reaches the end of his career - especially after the two nearly split this offseason. Although there's a chance Dart goes far earlier than No. 26, if he's on the board, Sean McVay might have a hard time passing on him.
Dart has some of the same traits that former Rams QB Jared Goff has - fearlessness in the pocket, consistent ball placement - but with above-average mobility. That may entice McVay, who could get even more creative with his offense if he had a QB that could be a plus in the run game. And though I don't believe Dart is worth a first-round pick, the NFL seems to be enamoured with him after he finished third in the country in big-time throws last season (30).
This would be an ideal match for Dart, too with the QB likely needing a year or two to sit and adjust to an NFL offense after playing in Lane Kiffin's one-read, RPO-heavy scheme at Ole Miss. If the Rams do look to the future and take Dart, a $10 bet pays a $140 profit.
📊 Best odds: +1400 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 6.67%
🏴☠️ Raiders to draft Jalen Milroe (+1800)
A similar situation to Dart with the Rams, Jalen Milroe could end up with the Las Vegas Raiders behind an entrenched starter in Geno Smith with the plan for him to take over in a few years. And you have to admit, Pete Carroll would love a guy like Milroe with his athleticism, energy, leadership, and high IQ (he won the William V. Campbell Trophy aka the academic Heisman).
The Raiders aren't going to use the No. 6 pick on Milroe, but he could realistically fall to them at No. 37, or they could trade up if they love him enough. While he's not as polished as Sanders, he's one of the most electric running QBs we've ever seen enter the NFL and posses an arm that the ball just explodes off of, could new Raiders general manager John Spytek fall for the traits?
This is also such a perfect situation for Milroe, he wouldn't be forced into action early and could learn from Smith while potentially having specific packages in the offense to utilize his absurd speed - he was sixth in the country in 15-plus-yard runs among QBs last season (12). If the Raiders swing on Milroe, a $10 bet pays a $180 profit.
📊 Best odds: +1800 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 5.26%
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🤖 AI prediction: Which long shot will be selected in the first round?
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT, a popular large language chatbot from OpenAI, to analyze this year's NFL draft class and team needs before predicting which long shot will be selected in the first round. Our AI prediction projects that Iowa State wide receiver Jayden Higgins will go in the first round.
🖥️ AI prediction: Jayden Higgins to be selected first round
🏈 Size + traits: At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, with legit vertical speed, Higgins has the type of frame and athleticism teams fall in love with late in the process - especially WR-needy contenders who miss on top guys early
🏈 Unique WR class tier: After the top five receivers, there’s a logjam of Day 2 guys, and Higgins has reportedly moved ahead of several of them on boards due to his upside and interviews - he reminds scouts of Nico Collins coming out
🏈 Late-round landing spot match: The Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions are all sniffing around for bigger, outside receivers
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Jayden Higgins is selected in the first round (+700). ChatGPT is a large language model and not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, so these projections should be viewed as entertainment or a supplementary data point for your NFL draft betting research.
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