2026 NFL Draft Odds & Predictions: Should You Bet Arch Manning to be the No. 1 Pick?
The promise of the 2026 NFL Draft is already a hot topic after this past draft class was short on first-round quarterback talent outside of Miami's Cam Ward. While Texas's Arch Manning is already receiving plenty of attention, is he really among the best bets to be the No. 1 pick?
Thanks to his last name, Manning opened as the favorite by the 2026 NFL draft odds to be the top selection next April when the draft is hosted in Pittsburgh. However, with just two collegiate starts to his name, the Longhorns' starting QB is far from the best bet.
🥇 2026 NFL Draft odds: Who will be No. 1 pick?
Our live 2026 NFL Draft odds for the No. 1 pick update in real time.
👑 Will Arch Manning be the No. 1 pick in 2026?
🤘 Arch Manning odds to be No. 1 pick (+200)
Unsurprisingly, Manning opened as the favorite to go No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft, with a good two-thirds of "way-too-early" mock drafts slotting the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning to be the top pick a year from now.
It's fair to assume that Manning will be one of the nation's top passers, given the fact that he was the No. 1 recruit two years ago and steps into the starting role for offensive guru Steve Sarkisian at a premier program like Texas. Still, just like his Heisman Trophy odds, this is not a bet worth making at this point.
Manning has seen extended action in just three games (two starts) at Texas, and while he did account for nine total touchdowns while making six big-time throws, per PFF, the level of competition was unimpressive. Manning put those numbers up against UTSA, Louisiana-Monroe, and Mississippi State. Those three teams all ranked 98th or worse on defense by SP+ this past season.
So while Manning certainly could live up to being the No. 1 pick, that's far too small a sample size to justify a $10 bet that will only pay a $20 profit an entire year out from the draft.
Remember, Shedeur Sanders opened as the favorite to go No. 1 in this past draft at our best sports betting sites with +100 odds. By the time April rolled around, he wasn't even viewed as the consensus No. 2 QB in the class, and he ultimately fell to the fifth round. Many of the early mocks slotting Manning to go No. 1 likely haven't even dug into the limited tape yet, so don't bet on him based on those projections.
I'm not saying it won't happen; I'm just saying this is a bad value.
Best odds: +200 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 33.33%
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💰 Best bet to be No. 1 pick in 2026
🐯 Cade Klubnik odds to be No. 1 pick (+1800)
None of Manning, Drew Allar, or Garrett Nussmeier is worth betting with their odds so short and the draft so far away. Sanders and Carson Beck were the QBs everyone was mocking to go first at this time last year, and those three are leading the way this year, which is why they all have an implied probability of 18.18% or better to be the No. 1 pick.
Instead of targeting them, it's the next two QBs with the shortest odds that I think are worth considering, and both happen to play in the Palmetto State. Clemson's Cade Klubnik and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers (+3000) are two intriguing QB prospects who both played their best football down the stretch last season.
Klubnik, a former five-star, finally lived up to his billing as a junior for Dabo Swinney while leading the Tigers to an ACC Championship and College Football Playoff berth last season. In the process, he routinely showcased impressive ball intermediate and deep ball placement on his way to finishing fifth in the country in big-time throws (28).
Sellers is a slightly bolder bet with him just entering his redshirt sophomore season following a breakout season in which the 19-year-old earned SEC Freshman of the Year. He's got all the physical tools you could ask for at 6-foot-3, 240 pounds with an NFL-level arm and major mobility - he was sixth in the country in forced missed tackles among QBs last season.
If Sellers can cut back on turnovers and improve his play from the pocket, he could quickly become one of the top QBs in the 2026 NFL Draft. For now, Klubnik is the safer play as a Heisman contender for a CFP team, especially with Sellers no guarantee to even declare.
Best odds: +1800 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 5.26%
💎 Best long shot to be No. 1 pick in 2026
🔴 Fernando Mendoza odds to be No. 1 pick (N/A)
My favorite long shot bet to be the No. 1 pick is such a long shot that he doesn't yet have odds available across our best sports betting apps. That shouldn't last for long, though, with California transfer Fernando Mendoza set to fill the massive shoes left by Canadian Kurtis Rourke at Indiana after he led the Hoosiers to a CFP berth in his lone season.
Like Rourke, who was selected by the San Francisco 49ers in the seventh round, Mendoza should help Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti shock the Big Ten. The 21-year-old started two seasons for the Golden Bears and showed plenty of promise, so much so that he was ranked the No. 4 QB in the transfer portal.
At 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, Mendoza looks the part of a future No. 1 pick and the redshirt junior has the arm talent and mobility needed to thrive in the modern NFL. While his production playing for Cal wasn't jaw-dropping - 4,712 passing yards, 34 total touchdowns in 20 games - he was still top 25 in the nation in adjusted completion rate (75.5%) and first down throws (156).
Now he's joining a Hoosiers team that reached the CFP last season and returns 61% of its offensive production from last season, including leading receivers Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. Mendoza is in the perfect situation to become one of the best QBs in college football.
Obviously, we can't bet on him to be the No. 1 pick as of now, but I expect Mendoza to pop up on the oddsboard in the near future as buzz around him builds.
Best odds: N/A
🎯 Best non-QB bet to be No. 1 pick in 2026
🐯 T.J. Parker odds to be No. 1 pick (+2500)
It seems likely that one of these QBs will emerge to solidify themselves as the No. 1 pick over the next year, much like Ward did in his lone season with the Hurricanes. But the 2026 NFL Draft should have more than a few non-QBs that get some attention to be the No. 1 pick next April, and the two leading the way both play defensive line for Clemson.
T.J. Parker and Peter Woods (+10000) are a terrifying duo for the Tigers, and both are consistently showing up in the top 10 of early mock drafts after showing major flashes over their first two seasons with Clemson. They will both likely be in the conversation to be the first non-QB selected next year.
Woods had a dominant true freshman season as an interior defensive lineman two years ago but had to play out of position in more of an edge role last season, which hurt his production slightly. He still managed 20 pressures, 20 defensive stops, and a 13.5% pass rush win rate, and he should be even better this year in his natural interior spot. Woods is the best bet of any player with odds longer than +5000.
Parker is the better bet overall, though, hence his shorter odds, because he's a true edge rusher. Since 2014, a non-QB has only been the No. 1 pick three times, and in each of those instances, an edge rusher was the first player selected. He was also one of the most productive pass rushers in the country last season, with the 15th-most pressures (51) while adding 11 sacks.
While I wouldn't bet Parker or Woods over their teammate, Klubnik, it's hard to find a better non-QB option than either of them.
Best odds: +2500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 3.85%
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