NFL Expert Picks Wild Card Weekend: Top Predictions & Best Bets for All 6 Games
Wild Card Weekend is often the highlight of many NFL seasons, and with the collection of NFL playoff games we have on tap from Saturday through Monday, that should be no different this year.
Our NFL expert picks for Wild Card Weekend begin with a showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans, and we end with the other team from L.A., the Rams, facing the Minnesota Vikings.
NFL expert picks for Wild Card Weekend
NFL odds subject to change. See all of our NFL picks for more on this week's top matchups.
| Game | Andrew Brennan | Gary Pearson | Gabe Henderson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers vs. Texans | J.K Dobbins anytime touchdown (+120 via bet365) | Justin Herbert Over 228.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) | Texans +3 (-115 at ESPN BET) |
| Steelers vs. Ravens | Derrick Henry anytime touchdown + Lamar Jackson 175-plus passing yards + Lamar Jackson 25-plus rushing yards (+131 via FanDuel) | Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) | Mark Andrews anytime touchdown (+155 at DraftKings) |
| Broncos vs. Bills | Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown (+160 via bet365) | Josh Allen Over 40.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) | Broncos +8.5 (-108 at FanDuel) |
| Packers vs. Eagles | Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown + Jalen Hurts 150-plus passing yards + Jordan Love 175-plus passing yards (+139 via FanDuel) | Saquon Barkley Over 20.5 attempts (-108 via FanDuel) | Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown (+105 at FanDuel) |
| Commanders vs. Buccaneers | Jayden Daniels anytime touchdown (+185 via DraftKings) | Commanders +3 (-110 via bet365) | Over 50.5 (-108 at DraftKings) |
| Vikings vs. Rams | Kyren Williams anytime touchdown + Matthew Stafford 175-plus passing yards + Sam Darnold 175-plus passing yards (+125 via FanDuel) | Rams +1.5 (-112 via DraftKings) | Vikings -1 (-105 at BetMGM) |
Best Wild Card Weekend picks
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Chargers vs. Texans prediction: Justin Herbert Over 228.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If you've read my Chargers vs. Texans prediction, you'll know I'm a massive Herbert backer in this matchup. I don't have a man crush to the level of his head coach, but who does?
Herbert has ramped up his passing game lately and had one of his best aerial games against the Denver Broncos in Week 16, amassing 284 yards on the NFL's second-best pass defense in terms of EPA.
He's facing an elite run defense, so the onus should be on him to air it out. And the game should be relatively close throughout, preventing Los Angeles from ditching the passing game.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
–– Gary Pearson (SBR | Twitter/X)
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Steelers vs. Ravens prediction: Mark Andrews anytime touchdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Andrews took the first five weeks off to give other tight ends a head start. (I'm obviously kidding.) The veteran struggled early on, but he's been red-hot since finding his groove in Week 6.
Andrews finished with more receiving touchdowns than any other tight end in the NFL. In fact, his 11 touchdowns are the joint-fourth highest among pass catchers in the league full stop. The 29-year-old is on a tear recently that has seen him haul in a score in six straight games, including a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I'm of the opinion that Baltimore blows Pittsburgh out of the water in this game. That'll require scoring points. Seeing as Andrews has found the end zone at a 58.82% clip this year, it's hard to figure out why he has plus-money odds at DraftKings that carry a 39.22% implied probability.
A $10 wager on Andrews to extend his scoring streak to seven returns $15.50 in profits.
Best odds: +155 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 39.22%
–– Gabe Henderson (SBR | Twitter/X)
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Broncos vs. Bills prediction: Broncos +8.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Denver is essentially playing with house money. It's a wildly over-used trope in the sports betting world, but it's true in this case. The Broncos came into the year with a win total of 6.5, and the Under was heavily juiced. Nobody expected Bo Nix and Co. to be here.
However, the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds contender did enough to successfully overcome a difficult AFC West schedule and reach the postseason. Denver boasts the league's No. 3 scoring defense that saw it lose by nine points or more on only one occasion across 17 weeks.
Sean Payton is exceptional against the spread as an underdog in his coaching career (54-39-2). We'll bank on the Broncos' defense keeping this contest closer than our best sportsbooks suggest at three-star confidence.
Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%
–– Gabe Henderson (SBR | Twitter/X)
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Packers vs. Eagles prediction: Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown + Jalen Hurts 150-plus passing yards + Jordan Love 175-plus passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I started making these anytime touchdown SGPs late in the season when our sites with the best sportsbook promos began listing star players at very short odds.
I essentially consider these an anytime TD bet with two "gimme" legs to get great value on a star player to find the end zone. Among our best sports betting sites, FanDuel's multiplier appears to be the easiest to exploit.
If you build this exact same SGP at bet365, you'll get odds of just +110 despite Barkley's anytime TD prop being significantly longer there. If you try to build it at DraftKings, you can't go lower than 200-plus passing yards for the quarterbacks, and BetMGM has only 50-yard increments, so 150-plus for both is just +100 total odds and 200-plus for either takes me out of "gimme" range.
Barkley's TD projection is 0.77 and the -138 odds at bet365 are easily the best for his prop as a single. The norm is roughly -170. Therefore, we're getting incredible value on what's essentially just a bet on him to score at +139.
If we lose on either of the other legs, I'll simply chalk that up to variance and take it on the chin. Those are things that are supposed to happen this game, based on both their odds and the projections for the players (Love is at 233.01 yards and Hurts is at 206.89).
If you make enough of these, you'll definitely profit. As you can see above, I have three different bets like this as part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions.
(Disclaimer: this could eventually get you limited at certain sportsbooks depending on your unit size. But our job as bettors is to find ways to win until that happens.)
Best odds: +139 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 41.84%
–– Andrew Brennan (SBR | Twitter/X)
Commanders vs. Eagles prediction: Jayden Daniels anytime touchdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is my favorite touchdown bet of the weekend.
I expect Daniels to put on a show in his first taste of postseason action when his Washington Commanders take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And his projection supports that.
Daniels' rushing touchdown projection is 0.45, and yet these +185 odds carry an implied probability of just 35.09% that he scores.
The quarterback reportedly dealt with "leg soreness" during the team's Week 18 win against the Dallas Cowboys. However, head coach Dan Quinn said he's not concerned.
Daniels has been running wild since Week 12, including that last game before he made an early exit. He had four carries for 27 yards in that contest against Dallas.
Both Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler are healthy for the Commanders, but Daniels remains the team's best runner. And when your season is on the line, you give the ball to your best players and let them cook.
Best odds: +185 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 35.09%
–– Andrew Brennan (SBR | Twitter/X)
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Vikings vs. Rams prediction: Rams +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Don't get me wrong, Minnesota enjoyed a fantastic season. But most teams - especially ones that exceed expectations - go through some sort of dip.
The Vikings have involuntarily fallen into that dip at the most inopportune time. Meanwhile, the Rams have won nine of their last 11 games excluding the Week 18 defeat in Seattle, when most starters rested.
Plus, Stafford thrived the last time these two teams met, dealing expertly with the Vikings' unrelenting blitz. He threw for four touchdowns compared to one pick in the Rams' 30-20 Week 8 win. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold had his worst outing against the pressure Detroit threw at him last week.
He looked immobile and lost when rolling to his left or right. And his 43.9% completion rate was evidence of that gruesome display.
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
–– Gary Pearson (SBR | Twitter/X)
Top Wild Card Weekend picks
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