Is It Time to Believe in the Commanders? Daniels, Quinn Have Washington in Super Bowl Race
If you've watched any NFL football over the last two months, you've surely seen highlights of Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders dancing across your screen as they lead a parade of defenders into the end zone.
The rookie sensation has been at the forefront of a franchise revival in the nation's capital, where long-suffering fans have been blessed with the best team in the NFL by point differential entering the NFL Week 8 odds.
That stellar start for the Commanders (5-2) has caught the attention of the best Super Bowl betting sites, which have Washington priced among the dark-horse title contenders through seven weeks. But are they worth the hype?
Commanders Super Bowl odds
Super Bowl odds from our best NFL betting sites as of Oct. 21.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2800 | +2800 | +3500 | +3000 | +4000 |
The best odds for the Commanders to win the Super Bowl are +4000 from bet365. A winning $10 bet at those odds would return a $400 profit, while the same wager at the market-low +2800 odds would return a profit of just $280.
bet365's odds represent an implied win probability of 2.44%, while the odds from DraftKings and FanDuel suggest a higher 3.45% win probability.
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Can the Commanders win the Super Bowl?
Entering the season, the Commanders were dealing anywhere from 120/1 to 150/1 across our best sportsbooks, which had their preseason NFL win total set at 6.5.
Seven weeks later, Washington is one win away from rewarding Over bettors before November, and two of those five shops are dealing this group inside the top 10 among all Super Bowl contenders.
That would have seemed nearly impossible two months ago, but the two biggest newcomers to D.C. have turned the culture around in stunning fashion.
Daniels has been the clear gem of the 2024 NFL Draft through seven career starts, leading the NFL in completion rate (75.6%) while ranking third in QBR (73.7) and fourth in yards per attempt (8.4).
That's to say nothing of his 372 yards, four touchdowns, and 24 first downs with his legs - all of which rank second among QBs entering Week 8.
None of this would be possible without the infrastructure put in place by first-year coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who have their fingerprints all over this 5-2 start.
Quinn was the head coach when the Atlanta Falcons were setting records under then-coordinator Kyle Shanahan, and he's let Kingsbury cook at the helm of Washington's top-ranked scoring offense (31.1 PPG).
That was on full display on Sunday when the Commanders scored 40 points despite Daniels leaving in the first quarter due to a rib injury. Even with Marcus Mariota leading the way, this unit looked like one of the best in football - that feels obvious by now.
The defense, on the other hand, is still surrendering the fifth-most yards per play (5.8) while allowing opponents to score on 43.8% of their drives. That's why bet365 is offering +4000 odds on the Commanders winning the Super Bowl.
That number is becoming harder to ignore as this team continues to stack blowout victories - especially if Quinn, a noted defensive savant, can get that side of the ball dialed in. Even a higher turnover rate (9.4%) would do wonders to complement the offensive juggernaut that Kingsbury is captaining in Washington.
How to bet Commanders in NFL awards markets
At this point, a bet on the Commanders to win the Super Bowl is akin to buying a D.C. lottery ticket - there's a (small) chance you'll win, but it's better to buy it and forget it until they draw those lucky numbers.
That isn't the case in the NFL awards markets, where some of Washington's top stars are making a legitimate case for hardware come February.
Daniels holding serve as NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds from the best sports betting apps.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| -145 | -140 | -145 | -150 |
As we mentioned earlier, Daniels isn't just the best rookie quarterback in his class; he's playing like one of the best QBs in the entire league.
Despite throwing just six passing touchdowns through seven games - one of which he played just 10 snaps - Daniels is dealing between -140 and -150 by the latest NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds even after Sunday's injury, which has him "week-to-week" according to coach Dan Quinn.
He was dealing as short as -250 last week to win the award, and he's still trading between +1400 and +1800 by the latest NFL MVP odds to become the first rookie to win the award since Jim Brown in 1957.
While I'd rather save my lotto ticket money for a different MVP candidate, I have a tough time believing that anyone - including Williams - will catch Daniels in the OROY market given how prolific he's been at the helm of the NFL's top scoring offense.
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Quinn among favorites to win NFL Coach of the Year
NFL Coach of the Year odds from the best live betting sites.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +275 | +300 | +300 | +300 |
Behind every great NFL team is a great coach or quarterback. In this case, both deserve a share of the credit for the league's biggest surprise contender.
Quinn deserves plenty of praise for Washington's on-the-field success, even if the defense - which is technically the responsibility of coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. - hasn't been up to snuff through the first seven weeks.
But he's been even more instrumental in changing the culture of a franchise that was arguably in the worst shape of all 32 clubs before he took over.
The Commanders have gone from a laughing stock entering 2024 to the ones laughing on the sidelines as they beat teams by multiple touchdowns.
Quinn is still priced behind Minnesota Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell across the best NFL prop betting sites, but a $10 bet at BetMGM would return a $30 profit if the voters reward the first-time coach for his all-around work in D.C.
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Best NFL futures bet on Commanders
Commanders to win the NFC East (+135)
Washington entered the year with 10/1 odds (or worse) to win the division across the best sports betting sites, but we've seen that line slashed after the Commanders' 5-2 start to the season.
I still feel like there's value at these +135 odds from DraftKings, which would turn a $10 bet into a $13.50 profit if Daniels and Quinn can lead this group to its first NFC East title since 2020 and just the fourth this century.
The Commanders lead the division by 0.5 games through seven weeks, and they lead the NFL in point differential (+66) while ranking sixth in net EPA/play (0.15).
Compare that ranking to the Philadelphia Eagles (18th), New York Giants (24th), and Dallas Cowboys (30th), and it's hard not to be impressed with the start we've seen from the biggest preseason long shots to win this division.
Washington will face the Eagles and Cowboys a combined four times over its final seven games. That's when the division will really be decided, though a strong start has me buying this plus-money value entering Week 8.
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