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Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels against the Dallas Cowboys as we offer our Jayden Daniels player prop picks for the Commanders vs. Buccaneers wild-card game.
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels against the Dallas Cowboys. Photo by Tim Heitman via Imagn Images

Soon-to-be Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels gets set for his first playoff game when the Washington Commanders face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, NBC).  

While he hasn't been anointed yet, his Offensive Rookie of the Year odds closed miles ahead of everyone, like when he runs free of the chasing pack after escaping the pocket. 

Our Jayden Daniels player prop picks, part of the NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions, analyze the chances of the rookie sensation doubling down and having a similar impact on his first playoff game as he did throughout the regular season. 

Jayden Daniels prop picks: Wild Card Weekend

NFL odds as of Sunday. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Jayden Daniels prop pick: Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Jayden Daniels prop pick: Over 21.5 completions (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Jayden Daniels prop pick: Over 51.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jayden Daniels Wild Card Weekend player props

NFL picks made Sunday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 touchdown passes ⭐⭐⭐

Daniels was on an absolute tear down the stretch, tossing 15 touchdown passes in the last five games, excluding the Week 18 contest in which he barely played. He threw at least two touchdowns in each of those games, maxing out with five in that epic comeback win against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16. 

He should be able to extend his streak into the playoffs against a Buccaneers team that allowed 18 touchdown passes in the red zone (tied for the 13th most) and 27 overall (tied for the 10th most). Tampa Bay also has a depleted secondary, with cornerback Troy Hill ruled out and five others (two safeties, three cornerbacks) listed as questionable. 

Of our best sportsbooks, FanDuel offers the best price, which ranges from -118 to -140. A winning $10 bet would profit $8.47.

Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%

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Jayden Daniels Over 21.5 completions (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Daniels had at least 22 completions in his last six starts, again excluding his bit-part participation in Week 18. 

Not only is Daniels on an impressive Over run, but he is also facing a Buccaneers team ranked in the bottom 10 in DVOA with the 18th-ranked coverage unit (via PFF). Couple that with the Buccaneers' spate of injuries to the secondary and their propensity to blitz, which Daniels handles expertly. He had the second-highest quarterback rating against the blitz. 

In addition, Tampa allowed the most completions per game (24.5) during the regular season. 

It feels like the line, and odds offered at BetMGM are too good to be true. Caesars offers -128 for 21.5 completions, while DraftKings and FanDuel have the total set at 22.5, offering -110 and -114, respectively. BetMGM is head and shoulders above the rest of our best sports betting apps on this occasion, and I plan on taking full advantage.

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Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Jayden Daniels Over 51.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐

The Buccaneers blitzed at the third-highest rate during the regular season (34.2%). At this point, I'm not sure you can teach an old dog new tricks, which should benefit Daniels. Tampa's aggressiveness should leave pockets of space behind the bull rush, allowing Daniels to drop the shoulder and take off. 

And despite Tampa's high blitz rate, it was graded as just the 21st-ranked pressure unit at PFF. Daniels hit the Over on this prop in his last three games, again excluding the season finale. He also had 88 rushing yards against the Buccaneers in Week 1, his second-best output all season.  

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%

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