Josh Allen Player Prop Picks: Wild Card Weekend Predictions & Odds vs. Broncos
Quarterback Josh Allen will look to lead his Buffalo Bills past the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., on Sunday.
I look at the best Josh Allen player prop picks for the 1 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+) kickoff. It’s safe to assume Allen will need a solid game if the Bills are to cover the 8.5 points they're favored by. As part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions, our NFL playoff bracket predictions think the Bills will get by the Broncos, cover or not.
Allen finished the year with 3,731 yards, 28 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions and closed out the season as the NFL MVP odds favorite when the markets were taken down. He also added 531 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. Is he in for another huge game, or will the Broncos’ third-ranked scoring defense slow him down?
Josh Allen prop bets: Wild Card Weekend
NFL odds as of Saturday. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Josh Allen prop pick: Anytime touchdown scorer (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen prop pick: Over 233.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen prop pick: Over 42.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Josh Allen Wild Card Weekend player props
NFL picks made Saturday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Considering how much success Allen has had finding the end zone this season, this price is excellent. He’s scored a touchdown in eight games, and more importantly, most of his touchdowns were scored in the back half of the season. He scored in six of his last seven games if you disregard his one-play performance in Week 18, finding pay dirt nine times.
While the Broncos allowed just 0.6 rushing touchdowns per gamer this season, Allen hasn’t been deterred by any matchups down the season's final stretch.
The price at DraftKings is significantly better than the price anywhere else. For example, the worst price available right now is -154 at Caesars.
Best odds: -125 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 55.56%
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Josh Allen Over 233.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Allen has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in back-to-back games (even when you rule out the Week 18 "start"), but the total being offered by our best sports betting apps shows how good of a matchup this is for him. The Broncos have the 19th-ranked pass defense in the NFL, allowing 220.7 per game.
While the Broncos completely shut down Philadelphia Eagles backup QB Carson Wentz last week, they’ve allowed at least 284 passing yards in two of their last three.
The Broncos’ third-ranked run defense poses serious problems for running back James Cook, so I expect the Bills to run through Allen in this game. While Allen has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of his last five, he’s thrown for at least 235 in seven of his last 10.
There isn’t much of a difference from one sportsbook to the next, as our best sports betting sites have this total set at 233.5 or 234.5. Every price is also between -110 and -115.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Josh Allen Over 42.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Not only will Allen throw all over this defense, but he’ll also pick up plenty of yards on the ground. While the Broncos finished the year with one of the best rush defenses in football, it’s hard to prepare for a quarterback like Buffalo's.
Earlier this year, the Broncos held Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to just four yards on three carries. But they also allowed Indianapolis Colts signal-caller Anthony Richardson to run for 46 yards against them in Week 15. While Allen hasn’t run a lot in his last two games, he did top 65 yards in back-to-back games in Weeks 14 and 15. He’s also cleared this number six times this season.
BetMGM offers this prop at 41.5, but they’re asking -125 for the Over. For one extra yard, DraftKings is offering a significantly better price. And while bet365 is offering -110 for Over 43.5, the price difference between that and what DraftKings is offering isn’t enough to justify the additional yard.
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%
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