Josh Allen TNF Player Prop Bets: Thursday Night Football
Josh Allen put together an MVP-caliber performance in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals, and he sits second in the NFL MVP odds as a result. But he suffered a left-hand injury late in the contest, and it could affect how he plays on Thursday night against the Miami Dolphins.
Allen was a monster in Week 1, completing 18 of 23 passes for 232 yards and two touchdowns while adding 39 rushing yards and two more scores on nine carries.
The quarterback is ready to suit up in Week 2, but his hand issue could alter the way he plays against the Dolphins. It's certainly impacting our Josh Allen TNF player props.
We've scoured the Thursday Night Football odds to deliver our three favorite props, which work alongside our Bills vs. Dolphins prediction to provide you with all the NFL Week 2 predictions you need.
Will Allen shine in this battle between Super Bowl odds contenders?
Josh Allen prop predictions for Thursday Night Football
- Josh Allen Under 39.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen Over 22.5 passing completions (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen + Tua Tagovailoa Over 43.5 passing completions (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Josh Allen player props
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Josh Allen Under 39.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Allen is good to go on Thursday night and should feel comfortable slinging the ball around the field since the injury is to his non-throwing hand. However, it could really limit his ability - or more so his desire - to run the football.
His projections support that narrative, too. Allen is projected for a little more than 34 rushing yards on Thursday. We're not getting a ton of value based on that projection alone, but I don't think the data is properly accounting for Allen's injury.
Allen's trademark ability to truck or simply go over defenders will be heavily compromised, and he'll want to avoid getting tackled as much as possible. He ran the ball just twice over two drives following the injury in Week 1, with one carry being for minus-1 yard to set up a field goal. He recorded another carry on a final kneel down.
The latter is why I'm going with Allen's yards instead of his carries. The Bills are underdogs, so it's not guaranteed he takes a knee at any point in this game. But we face far more variance when fading his rushing attempts total versus this wager on his rushing yards.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Josh Allen Over 22.5 passing completions (+102) ⭐⭐⭐
If Allen isn't going to run the ball as often, he'll need to throw it efficiently if the Bills hope to win. And that's exactly what I think he'll do.
Allen completed only 18 passes in Week 1, but he didn't need to do much else during a comfortable victory over the Cardinals.
However, a road game against the division-rival Dolphins won't be so easy, and I expect Allen to use his arm early and often in this one.
The projections agree, as Allen is projected for just over 23 completions. Though that's not a huge buffer, getting plus-money odds provides us with roughly 9% positive expected value on this bet.
For those without access to all of our best sports betting sites, the point at which I'd no longer buy this Over is anything shorter than -105. I'd deem -110 to be "fair" (and thus without value to us, the bettor) odds for this Over.
Best odds: +102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 49.50%
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Josh Allen + Tua Tagovailoa Over 43.5 passing completions (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
We've discussed why Allen will throw the ball more, and Phil Wood detailed why he believes Tagovailoa will do the same in his Bills vs. Dolphins TNF prop bets.
Along with Allen's projected of 23.33 completions, Tagovailoa is forecasted to complete a similar 23.65 passes.
Additionally, each quarterback's passing completions total is trading at 22.5, with Tagovailoa's Over trading at around -120 at our best sports betting apps.
Therefore, between the projections hovering around 47 and the passer's combined totals sitting at 45, we really like these +100 odds for the pair to go Over 43.5 completions combined.
These combination markets offer the same excitement a parlay does - you can cheer for multiple players in the game - without the added variables and risk.
We don't need Allen to go Over his total and Tagovailoa to also go Over his mark. One can go Under while the other goes Over by a significant margin, and we'll still win.
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%
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Bills vs. Dolphins odds
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bills vs. Dolphins
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
- How to watch: Prime Video, DAZN
- Weather: 83 degrees, 15% chance of precipitation, 4-mph winds
- Favorite: Dolphins (-140 via bet365)
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