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Justin Herbert Player Prop Picks, Predictions Week 16: Playoff Hopes Rest on QB's Arm

Philip Wood

Last Updated: December 26, 2022 11:25 AM EST • 2 min 52 sec read.

The Los Angeles Chargers will clinch a playoff spot with a win. For them to win, they will need another big game from quarterback Justin Herbert. Here are our Justin Herbert player prop picks for Monday night.

The Los Angeles Chargers have won three out of four games, and are now on the verge of clinching a playoff spot. A lot of their success has come because of Justin Herbert, who has thrown for more than 300 yards in three consecutive weeks. Prior to his current run, Herbert had thrown for more than 300 only twice all season.

Here are our best Justin Herbert player prop picks for the Los Angeles Chargers versus Indianapolis Colts Week 16 matchup (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Chargers vs. Colts game picks, Monday Night football prop picks, and Colts-Chargers SGP.

Justin Herbert Player Prop Picks for Week 16

  • Over 270.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Over 37.5 passing attempts (-125 via DraftKings Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Under 10.5 rushing yards (-125 via FanDuel Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chargers vs. Colts Odds

Justin Herbert Player Props

Justin Herbert Over 270.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After missing time with an injury, wideout Mike Williams has officially returned to the Chargers lineup, and his presence has made all the difference for Herbert. In the last two weeks, Herbert has connected with Williams 10 times for 183 yards. In his last two games with Williams as an extra go-to receiver, Herbert has compiled more than 300 yards in each contest.

The Colts are in the top 10 in the league in passing yards allowed, which is likely why this number is so far below 300. Yet, Herbert and the Chargers haven’t been able to win convincingly of late, which means this should remain a tight game that will call for more passing from Herbert late.

As for the line, it is currently at 270.5 on FanDuel and PointsBet, which is significantly lower than the 279.5 posted by DraftKings and Caesars, and the 282.5 posted by BetMGM.

Over 37.5 passing attempts (-125) ⭐⭐⭐

The Chargers' offense has been based around the pass all season long. Herbert has thrown the ball 40 or more times in nine of his 14 games, and he has cleared 37.5 attempts in 10 games.

The Colts are only allowing 31.6 passing attempts per game, but in their last three games, they are allowing 37.7. This could seem like a problematic number because the assumption is the Chargers will be playing from ahead most of the game. Yet, even when winning, Herbert throws the ball. In fact, of the four games where he was Under 38 passing attempts, the Chargers lost two of them.

The Chargers have attempted the second most throws this season, averaging 43.2 on the year. Even if the Colts tend to hold opponents to less than that, don't expect the Chargers to change their game plan with a playoff spot on the line.

Under 10.5 rushing yards (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Colts have allowed seven quarterbacks to rush for 10 or more yards in a game this season. Yet, in their last two games, they've given up exactly zero rushing yards to quarterbacks. When they played the Minnesota Vikings, Kirk Cousins didn’t even attempt to run, which is common for him. 

Herbert has had five games where he's run for more than 10 yards, but he has not done so since the Chargers played the Arizona Cardinals on Nov. 27. In his last three games, he's run 10 times for a combined 17 yards.

There is some discrepancy about where this line should be. FanDuel and PointsBet both have this number at 10.5, while the other major sportsbooks have it at 8.5 for a much better price. Two yards may not seem like a lot, but when it comes to quarterback rushing yards, it's huge. Take the higher, more expensive number.

Justin Herbert player prop picks made 12/26/2022 at 10:08 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.