Mahomes vs. Allen Prop Picks: 4 Bets to Make Ahead of Sunday's Marquee Matchup

Rodrigo Villagomez

Last Updated: October 16, 2022 6:03 AM EDT • 2 min 24 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Two of the league's top quarterbacks meet for the third time in their careers. Are we in for an aerial assault? Find out which betting angles we like with these Patrick Mahomes - Josh Allen prop picks.

Fans are anticipating a high-flying show from Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as the two take the field in an AFC showdown on Sunday afternoon.

However, we may need to temper expectations given how well Buffalo is defending against the pass. Also, while Kansas City's pass defense may be poor, the Chiefs have managed to hold three quarterbacks to under 241 passing yards in 2022.

Here are our top Mahomes-Allen prop picks (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and FanDuel sportsbooks, and BetMGM).

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds

Mahomes vs. Allen Prop Picks

Mahomes-Allen Prop Predictions

Mahomes Under 325.5 passing and rushing yards (-115)

It may be hard to believe, but Mahomes has yet to exceed this total in 2022. It's even harder to believe the young phenom only registered seven games in 2021 that went beyond this mark. The Chiefs have played the Bills twice with Mahomes under center. Only one of those matchups resulted in the signal-caller surpassing this plateau.

He faces the fifth-ranked defense in yards allowed per game in Week 6. Buffalo is surrendering an average of 182.6 yards to opposing quarterbacks in 2022. The Bills allowed Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett to throw for 327 yards, though much of that came during garbage time. The highest output against them before that was 240 passing yards in Week 1. Even Lamar Jackson failed to top this total despite logging 73 rushing yards against the Bills.

Check out our Bills-Chiefs picks and predictions

Mahomes Under 40.5 pass attempts (-110)

While Mahomes has come close to this mark all season, last week against the Las Vegas Raiders was the first time the Over hit. Overall, he's attempted 189 passes and just under 39 per game. Everyone remembers the 54 passes he threw against the Bills last October. However, he put the ball in the air just 26 times during his only other start against Buffalo.

The Bills are needing to defend just 33.2 pass attempts per game. Only Matthew Stafford and Pickett have thrown 41-plus passes in a contest against Buffalo in 2022. No other quarterback has logged more than 29.

Allen most passing yards of game (-115)

Allen enters this matchup as the league's leader in passing yards, and he's 253 yards ahead of the fifth-place Mahomes. The Buffalo quarterback is averaging 330.2 passing yards per game, and Allen has already produced two games with 400-plus yards. Allen is 3-2 head-to-head against Mahomes during 2022 in this category.

Week 1 was the only game when Mahomes crossed the 300-yard mark. He's averaging 279.6 passing yards per game.

Check out our Bill-Chiefs same-game parlay picks

Allen's longest completion Under 37.5 yards (-120)

Only six of Allen’s 133 completions this season have gone over this total. Stefon Diggs has caught half of those balls on receptions of 53, 46, and 41 yards across three games. Gabriel Davis also made headlines with his 98-yard touchdown catch in Week 5. He recorded a 47-yard catch against the Rams in Week 1 too, accounting for another completion over this total for Allen.

A tricky Kansas City defense will hamper Allen’s ability to reach this number. While the unit may be fourth-worst in the league and giving up an average of 267.2 passing yards per game, the Chiefs aren't allowing that yardage in chunks. Kansas City is coughing up a seventh-best 9-yards per completion. Only Mike Williams and Davante Adams have caught a pass for at least 38 yards against Kansas City in 2022.

Where to Bet on Mahomes-Allen Prop picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

Mahomes-Allen prop picks made 10/14/2022 at 10:00 p.m. ET

Written By:
Rodrigo Villagomez

Rod has been a contributing author at Sportsbook Review for the last two years specializing in NASCAR and NFL prop betting. He has been writing and podcasting professionally for almost 20 years, spending the last four years in the sports gambling space. Rod has made several appearances on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports channel. He’s appeared multiple times on the Fantasy Alarm Show with Howard Bender as well as several times over the last two years during the FSGA Draft Week. He is a published author in the academic world with an article on steroids in baseball featured in the Bedford Reader textbook. Rod loves to find non-traditional bets which has led him to dive into the world of defensive and kicking props in football among others. His love of motorsports has translated into several winning weeks of both NASCAR and Formula 1 bets. Rod is a fan first and aims to provide betting picks that are not only profitable but will provide the maximum entertainment value during the sweat. Ultimately, he tries to remember that watching sports should still be fun and anything else is icing on the cake.