Which NFL MVP Long Shots Still Have a Chance to Win Award Entering Week 9?
We're nearly to the halfway point of the 2024 NFL regular season, and the MVP race is only marginally clearer than it was two months ago.
Lamar Jackson owns the shortest NFL MVP odds entering Week 9, even after he nearly turned it over multiple times in a surprising loss that dropped the Baltimore Ravens to 5-3 through eight weeks.
Patrick Mahomes ended a weeks-long drought with two passing touchdowns on Sunday, but he still has fewer touchdowns (eight) than interceptions (nine) in a bizarre first half for the reigning Super Bowl odds champion and two-time MVP winner.
So, as we look ahead to the NFL Week 9 odds, is there an opportunity to buy low on a potential MVP dark horse or long shot?
Here are five players I'm targeting after the first two months of the NFL season with MVP odds courtesy of our best NFL betting sites.
Best NFL MVP dark horses, long shots
NFL MVP odds as of Oct. 27 and subject to change. See our NFL player prop odds tool for the latest odds on any player.
Jared Goff (+800)
OK, Goff isn't exactly a long shot to win this award, as his +800 odds via DraftKings are the fourth-shortest on the board entering Week 9.
Yet if the season ended today, he'd be my pick to win it.
I think Jackson has a legitimate case as the favorite, but I've been even more impressed by Goff, who is quietly putting together one of the most efficient runs by any quarterback in NFL history.
Entering this week, Goff had posted a passer rating of 140 or better in three straight weeks, which had been done only thrice. The only others to do so in the last 50 years - Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and Kurt Warner in 1999 - won MVP honors.
Goff can do the same if he continues to lead the way for the best team in the NFC, which certainly appears to be the Detroit Lions after their 52-14 rout over the Tennessee Titans that saw Goff toss three touchdowns on just 15 attempts.
He's been ultra-efficient for one of the best offenses in football, leading the league in completion rate (74.1%) with the second-best passer rating (115.3) behind only Jackson (115.4).
I truly believe one of those two is going to win MVP, and a bet on Goff right now would turn a $10 bet into an $80 profit if he comes out on top.
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Joe Burrow (+1800)
I've been pounding the table for Burrow since mid-September, when his odds dropped precipituously after a tough Week 1 performance but never bounced back when he returned to MVP form.
Burrow hasn't posted the gaudy box-score stats in the yardage department that you'd hope to see from an award winner - to be fair, has anyone? - but he's thrown 15 touchdowns to just three interceptions while putting the team on his back.
There's a reason the Cincinnati Bengals passer entered the year among the MVP favorites, and he's lived up to the billing even as his teammates let him down week after week.
That could work in his favor if Burrow can ultimately lead the Bengals to the postseason after a 1-4 start, which is what oddsmakers expect to happen based on the NFL playoff odds. We've seen that sort of late-season magic from him before.
If that happens, the narrative will be overwhelmingly in Burrow's favor from a "most valuable" perspective, especially if the field lacks a true front-runner.
That's why I'd still recommend a bet on his +1800 odds via BetMGM, where a $10 wager could return $180 in profit if he produces another sizzling run late.
Jalen Hurts (+2000)
There hasn't been a lot of buzz around Hurts in this market even after he threatened to win this award two years ago. But that could be changing soon.
Hurts led the Philadelphia Eagles to a win over Burrow and the Bengals on Sunday to move to 5-2 on the season - just one game back of the Lions for the NFC lead.
He looked superhuman along the way, finishing with a combined 273 total yards and four touchdowns (one passing, three rushing) while completing his final 12 pass attempts to continue his stellar run of late.
Hurts' lack of pure passing volume hurts him in this market, but it's hard to reward Jackson for his dual-threat brilliance without affording the same treatment to the Eagles quarterback - especially with Philly boasting a better record through eight weeks.
If you're a believer, a $10 bet right now at BetMGM would return a $200 profit in February if Hurts closes the deal after nearly winning MVP before.
Kirk Cousins (+4000)
This was my favorite MVP bet entering the season, as I detailed in my NFL awards predictions, and he's dealing at the same odds at BetMGM two months later.
Sure, Cousins hasn't lit the world on fire in his first season with the Atlanta Falcons, but he's quietly thrown 14 touchdown passes - tied with Josh Allen and Sam Darnold for the fifth-most in the NFL - while ranking third in passing yards (2,106).
He added to both totals on Sunday, dicing up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 276 yards and four touchdowns to reclaim the lead in the NFC South.
Cousins has come through in the clutch, too, as his three game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comebacks both pace the league through the first eight weeks.
Right now, Cousins probably wouldn't register any votes for this award. But if the Falcons ultimately win the division for the first time since 2016 - when Matt Ryan won MVP honors - and Cousins is among the league leaders? Watch out.
Matthew Stafford (+8000)
I'll admit, this one might seem a bit out of left field. But there are two reasons why I like this bet so much at these long odds via BetMGM.
The first is his potential narrative case if he leads the snakebitten Los Angeles Rams - who lost four of their first five games - to a division title in the wide-open NFC West, which seems like a real possibility after Thursday's 30-20 win over the Vikings.
Stafford threw four touchdown passes in that game, and that could be a sign of things to come with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup.
Speaking of the Vikings, there's still a chance that the NFC's biggest surprise contenders swing a deal for the former Super Bowl champion.
If that happens, I have to imagine Stafford's MVP odds would immediately get slashed, as the narrative case is too strong to ignore if he can elevate the ceiling for one of the NFL's best teams and put up monster stats in Kevin O'Connell's offense.
Stafford is one of the NFL's most prolific passers yet to win an MVP award in his career, and voters would trip over themselves to reward him for either of the feats above - especially in this strange year without a clear choice.
Is it likely? Absolutely not. But I'm sure we've all made worse bets at shorter odds, and this one is definitely worth a small sprinkle with a $10 bet paying an $800 profit.
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