2026 NFL Draft Odds: Arch Manning Favorite To Go No 1; Nussmeier, Allar, Sellers Trail
The 2026 NFL Draft is months away, but Texas QB Arch Manning is already the clear favorite to be the No. 1 pick, according to the NFL draft odds at our best sports betting sites.
Manning's biggest competition to be the top pick based on the oddsboard is a slew of quarterbacks: LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, Penn State's Drew Allar, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, and Clemson's Cade Klubnik. But our AI prediction highlights a Big Ten QB with a long shot chance to go No. 1.
The 2026 NFL Draft will be held in Pittsburgh from April 23 to 25, and broadcast on ABC, ESPN, and NFL Network.
🥇Who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Our 2026 NFL Draft odds update in real time based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.
🤖 NFL draft AI predictions
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT, a popular large language model chatbot, to analyze historical trends and NFL stats before predicting the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Our AI prediction projects Arch Manning to be selected No. 1 in the NFL draft.
🖥️ AI prediction: Arch Manning to be selected No. 1 in the NFL draft
🏈 Elite pedigree and physical tools: Manning possesses a strong arm, impressive mobility, and a high football IQ, attributes that have been evident since he was the top recruit coming out of high school
🏈 Development and performance: After serving as a backup, Manning is set to take over as the starting quarterback for Texas, and his decision to stay and develop at Texas, rather than transferring for immediate playing time, has been seen as a testament to his commitment and maturity
🏈 Marketability and leadership: Beyond his on-field abilities, Manning's name recognition and leadership qualities make him an attractive prospect for NFL teams seeking a franchise quarterback to excite their fan base
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Arch Manning being selected No. 1 in the NFL draft (+230 via FanDuel). ChatGPT is a large language model and not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, so these projections should be viewed as entertainment or a supplementary data point for your NFL draft betting research.
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🎯 AI long shot to be No. 1 pick in 2026 NFL Draft
🔴 Fernando Mendoza (+5000)
🏈 Breakout season: Mendoza threw for over 3,000 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions last year for California, showcasing his ability to lead an offense lacking talent effectively
🏈 Physical attributes: Standing at 6-foot-5 and weighing 225 pounds, Mendoza has the prototypical size for an NFL quarterback, coupled with a strong arm and good mobility
🏈 Opportunity at Indiana: Transferring to Indiana provides Mendoza with a platform to compete at a higher level for a team that reached the College Football Playoff last year while further developing his skills against strong competition
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💰 Opening odds for No. 1 pick in 2026 NFL Draft
Odds via DraftKings.
- Arch Manning (+200)
- Drew Allar (+225)
- Garrett Nussmeier (+450)
- Cade Klubnik (+1800)
- T.J. Parker (+2500)
- Keldric Faulk (+2500)
- Caleb Downs (+2500)
- LaNorris Sellers (+3000)
- Carson Beck (+3000)
- Jayden Maiava (+3500)
- Dante Moore (+3500)
- Spencer Fano (+4000)
- Miller Moss (+4000)
- Harold Perkins Jr. (+4000)
📚 NFL draft betting history
| Year | Pick | Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cam Ward | QB | +1500 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams | QB | -1000 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young | QB | -1000 |
| 2022 | Travon Walker | DE | +140 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | -1000 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow | QB | OFF |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | QB | -400 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | QB | -175 |
| 2017 | Myles Garrett | DE | -400 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | QB | -850 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston | QB | -1500 |
| 2014 | Jadeveon Clowney | DE | -400 |
❓2026 NFL Draft FAQs
Who is favored to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Texas QB Arch Manning is the early favorite to be the No. 1 pick according to the 2026 NFL Draft odds. His odds of +230 represent an implied win probability of 30.30%, according to our odds converter.
Who has the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
We won't know who holds the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft until the end of the regular season. The Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, and New Orleans Saints are expected to be among the contenders for the No. 1 pick.
Who was the first overall pick last year?
The Tennessee Titans selected Miami QB Cam Ward with the No. 1 pick of the past NFL draft.
When is the 2026 NFL Draft?
The 2026 NFL Draft will be held from April 23-25. The first round of the draft will begin at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 23.
Where is the 2026 NFL Draft?
The 2026 NFL Draft will be held in Pittsburgh.
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