NFL Draft Predictions & Expert Picks: Who are the Best Players to Target in the 1st Round?
The NFL draft begins with the first round on Thursday, and we've put together our top 2024 NFL Draft betting predictions and expert picks based on the best NFL odds.
The 2024 NFL Draft takes place in Detroit, Mich. from April 25 to 27 after months of evaluations, workouts, meetings, and medical exams have helped NFL teams formulate their big boards.
For teams picking early, this is about rebuilding with franchise cornerstones, and for Super Bowl odds favorites, it's about finding that missing piece to put them over the top. Last season the Houston Texans hit on their top two picks and made the playoffs, will a team be able to nab a favorite by both the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and Defensive Rookie of the Year odds in similar fashion?
The NFL Draft is famously unpredictable, making it one of the most exciting events on the NFL offseason calendar and a challenging one to bet on given the shifting NFL draft odds.
While waiting for the action, we asked ChatGPT to make a 2024 NFL mock draft.
Here are our NFL draft betting predictions and expert picks for Thursday night (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
2024 NFL Draft expert picks
- Byron Murphy II first defensive player selected (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Drake Maye No. 2 pick (+400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Ladd McConkey first round pick (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- J.J. McCarthy top five pick (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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2024 NFL Draft prop bets
Byron Murphy II to be first defensive player selected ⭐⭐⭐
A day ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft, there was a massive build in buzz for Texas' Byron Murphy II to be selected in the first 10 picks. The top interior defensive lineman in the class, Murphy could push to be the first defender off the board.
It's slightly risky given the Atlanta Falcons, who are expected to be the first team to consider selecting a defensive player, have been connected to Alabama's Dallas Turner for months. However, the Falcons could choose to go with Murphy, trade back, or add another wide receiver for Kirk Cousins, if one of the top pass catchers is on the board.
While these odds imply only a 28.57% probability that Murphy is the first defender picked, according to our odds calculator, he's become the betting favorite to go No. 9 to the Chicago Bears with odds as short as +130. We're banking on the NFL valuing Murphy more than the available pass rushers and cornerbacks in a weak interior D-line class - he also gets the "bubble butt bump." A $10 wager on these odds would lead to a $25 profit.
Best odds: +250 via DraftKings
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Drake Maye No. 2 pick ⭐⭐
This is a calculated swing with these odds representing just a 20% probability Drake Maye goes No. 2 with a $10 bet paying out $50. This swing is based on the fact that the lead up to the NFL draft is silly season and this time last year Will Levis was the favorite to be selected No. 2 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft - and no team is sillier than the Washington Commanders.
Heisman winner Jayden Daniels is the overwhelming favorite to be selected by the Commanders second overall, and he has been since February, but there was a time when Maye was viewed as the consensus QB2. He's still ranked there by NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah and the Athletic's Dane Brugler, the two most respected draftniks in the industry.
There's been a flurry of rumors regarding Daniels, Maye, the Commanders, and a visit to Topgolf gone wrong, and the odds have been all over the place. The fun of the NFL draft is that there's very little tangible evidence informing our opinions, and the +400 odds are too good to pass on when Maye is viewed as QB2 by most.
Best odds: +400 via BetMGM
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Ladd McConkey to be a first-round pick ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This might be our favorite value of the entire 2024 NFL Draft. These even-money odds pay out $20 on a $10 wager if Georgia's Ladd McConkey goes on the first night of the draft, and there's a 50% implied probability that he will.
It's no secret this wide receiver class is loaded with as many as four expected to go in the first half of Round 1, but there are plenty of WR-needy teams picking in the 20s. That's where we expect McConkey to go, especially after a dominant pre-draft showing at the Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and his Pro Day.
Regarded as a top tier route runner in this class, with sub-4.4 speed, McConkey would help playoff teams like the Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs right away. Plus, the NFL loves guys they can call "sneaky athletic scrappy gym rats."
Best odds: +100 via FanDuel
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J.J. McCarthy to be a top-five pick ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The discourse around J.J. McCarthy has been non-stop, and regardless of how you feel about the national championship-winning QB, he's more likely than not to be one of the first five players off the board. The -140 odds imply a 58.33% probability he goes in the top five with so many teams in need of a young franchise passer.
What's been so interesting about McCarthy leading up to the draft is seeing him go from being rumored to the Minnesota Vikings in a trade up to pick No. 4 or No. 5, to the increased noise that he could go No. 3 to the New England Patriots.
Luckily, we don't care where he ends up doing his pregame meditation, as long as it's with a team selecting in the first five picks. For doubters, it's important to remember that the NFL barely knows more about evaluating QBs than the average fan, and that's why players like Kenny Pickett end up going in the top 20.
Best odds: -140 via bet365
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NFL best bets made Wednesday at 11:20 a.m. ET.
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