NFL Worst Record Expert Picks: 2025 Regular Season Best Bets, Futures Predictions
As we outlined in our NFL best record picks, last season was one of the most lopsided in the league's history, with 10 teams finishing with five wins or fewer. That tally is up from five, six, six, and nine over the last half-decade, despite the addition of a 17th game in 2021.
The gap between the good and bad teams has never been larger, as evidenced by 15 teams winning 10-plus games last season. That's what makes it so difficult to put together our NFL worst record expert picks ahead of the upcoming campaign.
The worst record futures market is extremely volatile, as recent trends suggest. However, our best sports betting sites offer generous plus-money odds for anyone who can correctly predict the team with the worst regular-season record.
Read on as we use the NFL schedule release to justify our worst record picks.
👉 Check out our 2025 NFL season AI predictions, which offer a +6000 play in this market
📈 Who led the NFL in losses last year?
The Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, and Tennessee Titans racked up the most losses in the league last year with 14 apiece. Here's how the last five years have looked in this market:
- 2024: Browns, Giants, Titans (14)
- 2023: Panthers (15)
- 2022: Bears (14)
- 2021: Jaguars (14)
- 2020: Jaguars (15)
👎 Who will have the NFL's worst record?
Unsurprisingly, oddsmakers at our best sports betting apps don't expect as many bottom-tier teams this season. DraftKings gives four of the league's 32 teams a win total less than or equal to O/U 6.5, but only two are getting juiced odds toward the Under.
The Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, and New Orleans Saints are expected to compete for the league's worst record, with each receiving a win total of O/U 6.5 games. The Browns (-220) and Saints (-180) are minus-money to go Under the total, whereas the Panthers (+105) and Raiders (+120) are receiving longer odds to do so.
Cleveland (+475) is the betting favorite to lead the league in losses, something the Browns did last season for the first time since the 2017-18 campaign when they went 0-16. New Orleans (+500), the New York Giants (+650), and the New York Jets (+850) are the only other teams trading at odds shorter than 10/1 in this market.
Now that we know the odds, which team is our pick?
🏈 NFL worst record pick: Saints (+500)
New Orleans gets one of the league's easiest schedules next season. But the same was said last year, and that didn't stop Dennis Allen and Darren Rizzi's group from finishing 5-12.
While the Saints did financial gymnastics to get out of cap hell and improve key areas of the team this offseason, they took a huge step back at the most important position on the field. Derek Carr's impromptu retirement forces New Orleans into a seemingly unwanted rebuild.
First-year head coach Kellen Moore now must take a glance at his quarterback room and worry about the immediate future. While the team may be optimistic about second-round rookie Tyler Shough, it's undoubtedly a cautious optimism given the inexperience under center.
As of mid-May, the Saints' quarterbacks have not recorded a single win at the NFL level. If Jake Haener, Spencer Rattler, and Shough are the three rostered signal-callers heading into the season, they'll be the first such QB room in the NFC South since the Carolina Panthers in 2001. How did that work out? They went 1-15.
A veteran presence could make a world of difference for New Orleans under center. The Saints boast promising talent on the offensive line and at the skill positions, as well as an experienced defense. But that won't matter if the quarterback play is as poor as many expect.
Oddsmakers at our best NFL betting sites are equally as pessimistic about the Saints' odds this season. Despite one of the NFL's more favorable schedules, New Orleans is an underdog in 16 of its 17 games, including at home against the New England Patriots (+3) and Giants (+1.5).
The Saints are favorites against just one opponent, the Jets, and it's a small spread (-1.5).
Unless Loomis and Co. make moves to improve the team with the newfound cap lifeline Carr's departure offers, the Black and Gold are in for perhaps their roughest season this century. It may even be time for the Caesars Superdome to break out the brown paper bags again. Time will tell.
Our best sportsbooks give New Orleans the second-best chance to lead the league in losses. DraftKings is offering +500 odds, implying a 16.67% probability that New Orleans finishes at the bottom of the NFL.
📊 Best odds: +500 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $50 profit)
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