NFL Odds, Lines Week 18: No Run at History for Fields
The Minnesota Vikings jumped to -6.5 favorites in the NFC North division matchup following the news that Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields will miss this week's game due to a strained hip. Here’s an analysis of the NFL odds and lines for Week 18.
Not only does Fields sitting out against Minny cripple Chicago’s chances of winning in Week 18, the second-year star also won't have the opportunity to chase down history and break the single-season, rushing-yards record held by Baltimore Ravens signal caller Lamar Jackson.
It'll be the second game of the season Fields misses due to injury, and he’s a mere 64 yards shy of passing Jackson’s 1,206-yard record.
Here are the NFL spread and Over/Under lines for Week 18, and how we think they'll move throughout the week (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet, and Caesars Sportsbook).
NFL Week 18 Odds and Lines: Saturday
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
This spread has bounced around a little bit this week for a number of reasons, and it even dipped as low as Kansas City Chiefs -7.5. That number didn’t last, though, and we’re seeing the Chiefs trading as -9 or -9.5 favorites across our top-rated sportsbooks again as of Thursday afternoon. I expect this line to continue hovering between the key numbers of 8 and 10 leading into kickoff.
Total: 52.5
As anticipated, this total has climbed another point since Monday and is significantly closer to the key range of 53-54 than the 48.5 number that was available in look-ahead markets. If the Over continues to take the majority of betting action, the number should rise with the potential for buyback on the Under if it enters the noted key range.
Titans vs. Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -6.5
The AFC South crown and a postseason berth are on the line, and this spread continues to trade below the key number of 7. Betting support has been relatively balanced as of Thursday afternoon, but I expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to see more action leading into kickoff. As a result, we could see the Tennessee Titans as a touchdown underdog sooner than later.
Total: 38.5
There’s only been a small adjustment to this total, and it’s ranging between 39.5 and 40 across our top-rated sportsbooks. For reference, it opened at 38.5 and the look-ahead number was 39. Similar to the spread, there hasn’t been overwhelming support for either the Over or Under.
NFL Week 18 Odds and Lines: Sunday
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Spread: Falcons -4
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers secured a postseason berth and the NFC South with their win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 17. Tampa Bay is locked in as the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs, and there isn’t anything on the line for the Bucs. As a result, the Atlanta Falcons opened as a -7.5 home favorite, but the early betting action has been on the Tampa side and this spread has dropped.
Total: 40.5
This total is up from the 40 available in look-ahead markets. It’s settled in the key range of 40-41, and I view this as an accurate number. I’m not anticipating significant future movement.
Patriots vs. Bills
Spread: Bills -7
Both teams have playoff implications tied to this game, and there’s been a significant move from the Buffalo Bills -9.5 spread that was available in look-ahead markets. The New England Patriots control their postseason fate and will earn a wild-card berth with a win in Week 18. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the postseason outlook/seeding for the Bills as of Thursday, but the NFL should make a decision soon. I doubt it influences this spread, though.
Total: 42.5
There still hasn’t been enough betting action on this total as of Thursday to move it off the opening number of 42.5. It's definitely notable that it remains below the key range of 43-44, though.
Vikings vs. Bears
Spread: Vikings -7.5
With Fields ruled out of this game, this line moved six points in the Vikings’ direction. It's worth noting that PointsBet has an outlier Vikings -7 available with higher juice on the Minny side. Additionally, the Bears +7.5 lines are also carrying the higher vig, so I expect this spread to remain close to the key number of 7.
Total: 43.5
This total has been in freefall, as DraftKings was hanging the number at 47 on Monday, and the sportsbook is now listing it at 43. FanDuel and PointsBet are the highest of our top-rated sportsbooks at 43.5. I expected there to be money on the Over because of how poorly these two defenses have played, but with Fields ruled out, that hasn’t been the case.
Ravens vs. Bengals
Spread: Bengals -7
This is another game shrouded in uncertainty. There are playoff implications for both teams, and this spread hasn’t moved all week. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (knee) didn’t practice Wednesday, so it appears he’s unlikely to play against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.
Total: 41.5
The total went Under the number for a fifth consecutive game involving the Ravens last week, so it isn’t surprising this number dropped from the 43 available in look-ahead markets. I don’t expect significant movement to this total because it’s still trading between the key ranges of 40-41 and 43-44.
Chargers vs. Broncos
Spread: Broncos -2
The Denver Broncos were the favorite in look-ahead markets, and this spread has been all over the map this week. Early betting support was on the Los Angeles Chargers, and they were as big as a -3.5 favorite Monday through PointsBet. Now our top-rated sportsbooks all have the Broncos listed as home favorites as of Thursday afternoon. Caesars and BetMGM have the Broncos trading the shortest at -1.5, whereas FanDuel is listing Denver -2.5.
Total: 40
FanDuel is on an island with this total trading at 39.5, but otherwise, our top-rated sportsbooks have it at 40. It’s a notable climb from the 37.5 that was available in look-ahead markets, and the number is also within the key range of 40-41.
Lions vs. Packers
Spread: Packers -4.5
The Green Bay Packers have rolled off four consecutive victories and can clinch a postseason berth with a win over the Detroit Lions in Week 18. This projects to be one of the best and most meaningful games on the docket, as the Lions have also been playing well and won seven of their past nine contests. Detroit needs to beat Green Bay, and for the Seattle Seahawks to lose to the Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs. PointsBet is the only shop to move this spread off the opening number this week and is listing Green Bay at -5. It’s worth adding that the Packers were trading as a 3-point home favorite in look-ahead markets.
Total: 49
This total was 47 in look-ahead markets, and as expected, it continues to climb closer to the key number of 51. Both offenses have been clicking, early money was on the Over, and the Lions sport a 10-6 Over/Under record. Additionally, FanDuel has also moved the number to 49.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
Texans vs. Colts
Spread: Colts -2.5
Players auditioning for a 2023 job might be the only incentive for either of these teams Sunday. Additionally, the spread still hasn’t moved from the number available in look-ahead markets or at opening. I don’t expect there to be a significant betting handle on this game, and I doubt we see the spread stray too far from the key number of 3.
Total: 38
Early betting action was on the Under, and this total dropped from the 39 that was hanging in look-ahead markets. It’s worth noting FanDuel is listing the number at 38.5. It’s hard to imagine buyback on the Over leading into kickoff unless the number drops into the key range of 36-37.
Jets vs. Dolphins
Spread: Jets -1
The New York Jets have been eliminated from the playoffs, whereas the Miami Dolphins can earn a postseason berth with a Week 18 win, and Buffalo also topping New England on Sunday. However, Miami appears to be forced to turn to No. 3 quarterback Skylar Thompson with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) and Teddy Bridgewater (finger) iffy to play this week. Miami was trading as -7 home favorites in look-ahead markets, so while there’s been a huge adjustment to this line, New York was also as big as a -2.5 favorite on Monday.
Total: 38.5
This total has crossed the entire key range of 40-41 since opening at 41.5. It was also trading as high as 42 in look-ahead markets. It’s going to take some positive news for the Miami offense – and probably this total dropping even further – for there to be buyback on the Over.
Panthers vs. Saints
Spread: Saints -3.5
The Carolina Panthers lost ugly to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17, but I’m expecting interim head coach Steve Wilks and the players to show up and play with purpose in Week 18. Early betting action has been relatively even, so this spread should continue to hover around the key numbers of 3 and 4. It’s worth noting PointsBet is listing the New Orleans Saints as a -3 home favorite with a higher vig.
Total: 42
Continued betting support for the Over has this total on the move. It was 39 in look-ahead markets and opened at 39.5. The next key range is 43-44, but I’d expect there to be buyback on the Under if the number climbed that high. As a result, I’m not expecting much additional movement.
Giants vs. Eagles
Spread: Eagles -14
The Philadelphia Eagles were a short -3.5 favorite in look-ahead markets, but with quarterback Jalen Hurts expected to return to action with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line, Philly is now carrying two-touchdown chalk. The New York Giants are receiving more betting support, and PointsBet has moved the number to Philadelphia -13.5. I’m not convinced other oddsmakers will risk dropping below the key number of 14 and risk both recreational and professional bettors pouring money in on the Eagles.
Total: 43
FanDuel is hanging an outlier 42.5 total, which is notable because it’s below the key range of 43-44. Otherwise, our top-rated sportsbooks all have the number at 43. I consider this an accurate total, and I don’t expect it to climb above the noted key range.
Browns vs. Steelers
Spread: Steelers -2.5
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers winning five of their past six contests and having an outside shot at earning a playoff berth, there’s been enough betting support for the Cleveland Browns to move this spread off the key number of 3. The Steelers were a -2 favorite in look-ahead markets, so this line probably won’t move much leading into Sunday.
Total: 40.5
Similar to the spread, early steam on the Under has been followed by betting support for the Over. This spread was as low as 39 on Monday, but it’s now back to a consensus 40.5, which is also the number available in look-ahead markets. It appears bettors and oddsmakers agree it should be in the key range of 40-41.
Cardinals vs. 49ers
Spread: 49ers -14
The San Francisco 49ers still have a shot at earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so I’m expecting them to have their way with the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. However, they failed to cover as a -10.5 favorite last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, and as expected this spread hasn’t moved any further in the San Fran direction. That adjustment was already made with the 49ers trading as a -10.5 favorite in look-ahead markets.
Total: 40.5
Betting action continues to be balanced on this total, and it’s remained in the key range of 40-41. As a result, I don’t think it will stray too far. It’s definitely notable that PointsBet has an outlier 40 available.
Rams vs. Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -6
This spread has moved considerably from the look-ahead number of Seahawks -3. Seattle still has the potential to earn a postseason berth with a win and a Green Bay loss, too. The Los Angeles Rams have received more betting support than I expected, and this line has dropped a half point at most sportsbooks from the Seahawks -6.5 spread available Monday. FanDuel still has Seattle trading as a -6.5 home favorite, though.
Total: 41.5
There hasn’t been enough betting action on either side to move this total off the opening number. While it’s down from the 42.5 that was trading in look-ahead markers, it’s still above the key range of 40-41. I’m expecting the action to remain balanced with minimal movement to this total ahead of kickoff.
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Spread: Cowboys -7
With nothing at stake for the Washington Commanders in Week 18, the Dallas Cowboys are a home favorite with the potential to still secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC and/or win the NFC East. While it’s a long shot for Big D to pull off either feat, oddsmakers handicapped in a significant motivation gap for the two teams. Washington was a -4.5 favorite in look-ahead markets, but following the Commanders’ Week 17 loss to Cleveland, Dallas opened as large as a -6 favorite at some shops Sunday evening. The spread dipped as low as Dallas -4 this week, but Washington is starting rookie quarterback Sam Howell, and money flooded in on the Cowboys on Wednesday following the announcement.
Total: 41
There has only been slight adjustments to this total since opening at 41.5. It was 39.5 in look-ahead markets, so I’m expecting it to continue trading around the key range of 40-41. It’s definitely notable that while Howell making his first career start had a huge impact on the spread, it wasn’t a significant influence on the total.
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