Packers vs. Lions TNF Prop Picks, Odds: Thursday Night Football
The Detroit Lions will look to win their 11th consecutive game when they take on the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football.
Despite beating the Packers by 10 at Lambeau Field earlier this season, the latest Thursday Night Football odds have the Lions favored by only 3.5 points in Thursday’s 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video) game at Ford Field. And our Mike Spector expects the Packers to cover that spread with his Packers vs. Lions prediction.
When these two teams met earlier this year, the weather conditions were awful, so what should we expect from the best Packers vs. Lions TNF prop picks in a controlled environment?
Below I look at props for Jordan Love, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and David Montgomery, and predict how each will fare in their second matchup against their division rival, all part of our NFL Week 14 predictions.
Packers vs. Lions player prop picks: Thursday Night Football
Odds as of Wednesday and subject to change.
- Jordan Love Over 247.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 68.5 receiving yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- David Montgomery to score the first touchdown (+480 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Jordan Love Over 247.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This line makes it seem as though our best sports betting sites know something we don’t. The Lions will have Carlton Davis back for this game, but their defense is still depleted. They’re allowing 226.8 passing yards per game, and they couldn’t stop Caleb Williams in the second half last week.
Additionally, Love threw for 273 yards against the Lions the last time these two teams met. He’s thrown for at least 250 yards in six games this season, and with his team listed as the underdog, he’ll likely be playing from behind in this game. With more passing opportunities in perfect conditions, I expect Love to destroy this number.
Though bet365 is offering the best price for this Over, it also has the total set at 251.5. I’ll take fewer yards for a price that is only nominally worse.
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
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Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 receptions (+108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
St. Brown hasn’t scored in two weeks, and he’s gone for fewer than 75 yards in each contest. However, he still leads the team in targets, and whenever Goff looks his way, it’s normally a quality throw.
St. Brown has caught 76 of 92 targets this season. You have to go back to Week 2 to find a game in which more than two passes thrown St. Brown’s way fell incomplete. Though St. Brown hasn’t caught more than six passes in three of his last four games, he did catch all seven of his targets against the Packers in terrible conditions earlier this season.
FanDuel is offering this at +108, while BetMGM is offering it at -105. So while BetMGM believes St. Brown has a greater than 50% chance of hitting this number, FanDuel is barely giving him a 48% chance. That may not seem like a huge difference, but there is value in betting at FanDuel.
Best odds: +108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.08%
David Montgomery first touchdown (+480) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last week marked the first time this season that neither Montgomery nor Jahmyr Gibbs scored a touchdown. Considering the two players have combined for 22 touchdowns this year, it’s unlikely they’ll be shut out again.
Unfortunately, our best sports betting apps agree, and the prices for these two to score aren’t great. That said, there is a lot of value in taking Montgomery to score the first touchdown of the game. The Lions have scored the first touchdown in nine of their 12 games this season, and they have gotten the ball first in half of their games.
After getting a little cute at the goal line last week and struggling in the red zone because of it, I expect the Lions to go back to their roots this week. To get this at +480 when Montgomery has 11 of the team’s 21 rushing touchdowns - and he almost always gets the first drive - feels too good to be true.
Best odds: +480 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 17.24%
Packers vs. Lions odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Packers vs. Lions
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Lions -3.5 (-104 via FanDuel)
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