NFL Parlay Picks for Week 7: Will Atlanta Suffer 1st ATS Loss?
Three of the NFL's four teams with 5-1 or better records are on a bye this week, paving the way for others to cement themselves as conference contenders. Read on for our best parlay picks for Week 7's NFL action.
There are three road favorites on the 14-game Week 7 NFL slate. Not coincidentally, those road favorites are led by three of the most accomplished quarterbacks in the game today (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes). It is also not a popular week for divisional matchups, as just three games are between divisional opponents.
Here are our parlay picks for Week 7 in the NFL (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Week 7 NFL Parlay Picks
Week 7 NFL Parlay Predictions
Bengals -6 (-110)
The Atlanta Falcons covered a +4.5 spread and won outright as +165 moneyline underdogs against the 49ers last week. In the process, they became the third team in the previous decade, joining the 2018 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2021 Dallas Cowboys as the only teams to cover the spread in each of their first six games. Most impressively, Atlanta has done this as underdogs in each contest, winning three of the six outright.
The more bettors get wind of trends like the fact that the Falcons are 6-0 ATS, the more likely they are to blindly back them without considering the opponent or the game-specific matchup. However, Cincinnati is a formidable opponent that finally got things going with wideout Ja'Marr Chase last week.
Chase's two receiving touchdowns matched his total from the previous six games, and he broke a streak of four games without 100 receiving yards. While the Bengals were gashed by a New Orleans Saints running game that amassed 228 yards on the ground, the larger sample size says that Cincinnati allowed one touchdown to the high-powered Baltimore Ravens offense the week prior and just one touchdown total in the previous 31 drives before that. In addition, the Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.
Browns-Ravens Over 45.5 (-110)
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has just three touchdown passes to four interceptions over the last four games. Still, we are at least chalking last week's poor performance up to New York Giants defensive coordinator "Wink" Martindale's familiarity with Jackson from his time in Baltimore.
In Weeks 1-3, Jackson had a 95 QBR, a 7-0 TD-INT, and averaged 8.4 YPA versus man coverage. In Weeks 4-5, his QBR dipped with a 1-2 TD-INT and 3.2 YPA. This was noteworthy entering the Giants game considering their defense used man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (55%) (per Next Gen Stats) leading up to Week 6. The good thing for Jackson this week is that the Browns entered Week 6 utilizing man coverage at a 22.1% rate, the ninth-lowest in the league.
The Over has cashed in five of Cleveland's last six games, and we expect another shootout here.
Commanders +5.5 (-110)
Washington Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz is out for a month after undergoing surgery on his injured finger. However, given his 27th-ranked QBR of 34.1, are we sure Taylor Heinicke is not an upgrade? Heinicke went a respectable 7-8 as a starter for Washington last season while throwing 20 touchdowns on 6.9 yards per attempt.
Washington faces a Green Bay offense in complete disarray, as Aaron Rodgers threw one touchdown pass against the New York Jets (his fewest since Week 1). Green Bay had zero points on its first seven drives last week and averaged just 16 ppg in losses to the two New York teams. Rodgers' 38.5 QBR is his lowest through six games in his career, and he has thrown for fewer than 275 yards in seven consecutive games (tied for the longest streak of his career). Thus, we will take the points in what should be a low-scoring affair.
Where to Bet on NFL Parlay Picks
NFL parlay picks from 10/19/2022 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
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