Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady: Head-to-Head Comparison Entering Chiefs vs. Eagles

Tom Brady is the best quarterback of all time - few dispute that. Could Patrick Mahomes overtake him with a win in Super Bowl 2025?

Our Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady head-to-head comparison evaluates whether the Kansas City Chiefs QB, who is favored by the Super Bowl MVP odds, can challenge for GOAT status with the Chiefs favored to beat the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX) at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

Mahomes vs. Brady head-to-head comparison entering Super Bowl 2025

Some believe Brady's GOAT status is eternal, like Mahomes' link to Kermit the Frog. Others think it's only a matter of time before Kansas City's quarterback dethrones the seven-time Super Bowl champion and takes the crown for himself. Count me among the latter.

While there's no debating that Mahomes still has a lot to accomplish before that transition of power can occur, the Chiefs QB is on an unrivaled trajectory as he focuses on helping the Super Bowl odds favorites capture an unprecedented third straight Lombardi Trophy.

Mahomes vs. Brady stats (regular season)

We all know the importance of the regular season pales in comparison to the playoffs. However, you can't have one without the other, and excelling in the regular season is a prerequisite to becoming an elite player - let alone being anointed as the GOAT.

The comparison below is by no means apples to apples, as Brady played 23 seasons and was a starter for 22. Meanwhile, Mahomes has been in the NFL for eight seasons with seven as a starter. While I included per-game averages, sustaining an elite output over the long term is palpably more challenging.

While Brady is the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards (89,214), Mahomes currently boasts the highest per-game average (288.9) in NFL history. He's also thrown more touchdowns per game than Brady, who holds the career record with 649.

If Mahomes doesn't miss any extended periods due to injury - a farfetched notion considering how physically taxing his position is - he will be 43 when he equals Brady's 335 regular-season games.

There's no telling whether Mahomes has the durability and Ironman-like qualities Brady showcased throughout his career, but he would surpass the Patriots' legend in most statistical categories on his current trajectory.

Mahomes has already nearly doubled up Brady's rushing yardage and will likely surpass him in touchdowns, too, though it's doubtful he'll be able to scamper as he does now when he's 43. Brady has no hope if that comes true along with his other projections.

Mahomes' projected stats with Brady's game total

I came across the below X post, one of seemingly thousands Dov Kleiman disseminates daily: While it's hardly a straightforward comparison and is fraught with potentially misleading narratives, it offers an intriguing snapshot of where both players stand statistically after 112 games.

One such issue is that Brady was markedly superior in the middle portion of his career, while this snapshot showcases his first 112 games as a pro. 

Comparing Mahomes vs. Brady Super Bowl wins, playoff stats

Now we're talking. Playoff success, or lack thereof, defines careers. A player's name will never be uttered in any GOAT conversation without conjuring superhuman performances in the most pressure-packed situations.

Brady and Mahomes are two of the most clutch playoff performers, not only in football but across sports history. And their stats emphatically reinforce that notion.   

Mahomes vs. Brady playoff stats 

Nobody can compete with Brady's postseason resume, which includes an NFL-record seven Super Bowls while pacing all players in passing yards (13,400) and touchdowns (88) - to say nothing of his nine fourth-quarter comebacks and 14 game-winning drives.

Mahomes can't match any of that just yet, though he's won a ridiculous 85% of his postseason starts ahead of Super Bowl 59 while posting a far superior passer rating (105.8) and completion rate (67.8%) through his first 20 playoff games.

He's also run for nearly 30 yards per game in the postseason; Brady had 133 rushing yards total in his 48 starts.

Mahomes' playoff projections with Brady's game total

If Mahomes starts as many playoff games as Brady, he'll come within a whisker of his all-time passing yards record and blow away his career postseason touchdown mark - all while throwing just 19 interceptions and losing seven games overall.

Clearly, it's a bit foolish to assume Mahomes would maintain his current pace over nearly 50 postseason starts, if he's even fortunate to make that many appearances. But we've never seen a start to a career quite like this one, either.

Mahomes Super Bowl wins, playoff resume

Mahomes has come out of the gates at an even more blistering pace than Brady, punching his AFC Championship Game ticket in seven straight seasons as a starter.

With a 5-2 record in those games, Mahomes has led his team to a third straight Super Bowl appearance and is looking to make history by claiming a Chiefs three-peat, which would be the first of its kind in the Super Bowl era. 

However, Sean Tomlinson offers a contrarian viewpoint in his Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction and Super Bowl picks, expecting Philly to stop dead in its tracks any notion of a three-peat party after losing to Kansas City on this stage two years ago.

It took Mahomes a year longer than Brady to claim his first Lombardi Trophy, reaching the apex of the sport in his second season as a starter. Mahomes is 3-1 in the Super Bowl, with his only defeat coming against the GOAT himself in Super Bowl 55.

Brady Super Bowl wins, playoff resume

These two players' number of appearances and, more importantly, record in AFC or NFC Championships is staggering - even for two otherworldly freaks of their unsurpassable pedigree.

Brady is 10-4 in AFC and NFC Championships and advanced to the AFC Championship Game in his first year as a starter. He took it one step further and lifted his first Lombardi Trophy that season, too.

Brady waltzed into the AFC Championship five times in his first seven seasons as a starter. That was a snail's pace compared to the middle portion of his storied career when, from 2012 to 2019, he led the New England Patriots to eight consecutive AFC Championship Games. He was 5-3 during that unprecedented streak. 

Brady made it to the Big Game 10 times, winning seven Super Bowls. He'll be disappointed he didn't win all 10 as three of his digits must look mighty lonely without a bejewelled ring.

He lifted the Lombardi Trophy three times in his first five seasons but didn't win the fourth until his 15th season as a starter. Brady picked up four Super Bowls in his final nine seasons as a pro, perfectly embodying the tortoise after a hare-like start to his career.

Comparing Mahomes vs. Brady MVP, NFL awards

From what I hear, individual accolades look lovely in a trophy cabinet. More importantly, they highlight the player's ability to perform above the rest on a consistent basis.

Mahomes has played in four Super Bowls and took MVP honors in each of his three victories. Brady won MVP in five of his seven Super Bowl triumphs. 

If Mahomes plays as long as Brady did, I can't fathom him not securing at least one more regular-season MVP award. It's almost inevitable, like watching Mahomes overturn a fourth-quarter deficit in a win-or-go-home contest. 

Mahomes vs. Brady head-to-head record, comparison

Brady never lost to Mahomes in the playoffs, winning the 2019 AFC Championship in a 37-31 overtime thriller and leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 31-9 win over Mahomes' Chiefs in Super Bowl 55 at Raymond James Stadium.

The first contest was only Mahomes' third career playoff game. At that point, Brady had started in 38 playoff games. Saying Brady had the experience advantage is about as obvious as what the Eagles do on fourth-and-one. 

Brady's Super Bowl victory over Mahomes represented the former's 10th and final Super Bowl appearance. Meanwhile, Mahomes was playing in his second Big Game.

Mahomes got the better of Brady in three of four regular-season meetings, but those are about as inconsequential as one Bills supporter at Arrowhead Stadium in an ocean of Chiefs fans. The playoffs are the crown jewel, and Brady had Mahomes beat there.

Will Mahomes be better than Brady?

There's nothing to suggest he won't. Trajectories and projections aside - which would see the Chiefs quarterback surpass Brady if he also has the fountain of youth on his side - Mahomes does things Brady could only dream of.

First, he can run the ball for more than three yards. Second, he improvises like no other. Take his behind-the-back pass to Travis Kelce. Admittedly, it occurred in a stress-free, meaningless preseason game, but still. Can you imagine Brady attempting that dish? 

Mahomes completes passes while being taken down or diving forward and routinely glides through the air without being touched. Brady doesn't exactly cover himself in glory when he's on the move.

The Chiefs QB is also seemingly ambidextrous, tossing with his left willy-nilly after adapting on the fly. That athleticism and ability to audible in the middle of a play should bear weight in the GOAT conversation. It does with me.

Sure, Brady deserves further props for rising to the top despite being drafted in the sixth round with the 199th overall pick. That's heavily baked into his mythos. But Mahomes wasn't a no-doubt prospect, either, and he's already threatening as the second-best quarterback of all time less than a decade into his career.

While Mahomes would certainly strengthen his GOAT stock with a third straight Super Bowl victory and fourth of his career - in a game that Brady will fittingly call on the FOX broadcast - that lone result shouldn't matter when the dust finally settles on his career. 

Like it or not, admit it or not, hate him or love him, Mahomes will one day be where Brady is right now: the undisputed GOAT. 

What to know about Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl 2025

• Chiefs vs. Eagles history
• Chiefs Super Bowl history
• Eagles Super Bowl history
• Chiefs roster breakdown
• Eagles roster breakdown
• Super Bowl by the numbers
• Super Bowl betting trends
• New Orleans Super Bowl history
• Every Super Bowl rematch in NFL history
• Chiefs vs. Eagles rematch: What's changed?
• Chiefs Super Bowl three-peat: Ranking dynamic duos
• Where does Chiefs playoff streak rank in NFL history?
• Where do Chiefs rank among best teams of all time?

Super Bowl betting odds pages

Don't miss our all of our other NFL futures.

Here are our best Super Bowl betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)