NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
Week 10 was as full of against the spread (ATS) tumult as the Dallas Cowboys' locker room after their 34-6 spanking by the Philadelphia Eagles.
Favorites went 3-11 ATS - including 2-6 on the road - in Week 10, and and they're surely hoping it was a mere blip in the matrix. I'm hoping for the same after enduring a 6-8 ATS hiccup, dropping my record since Week 4 to 62-42.
- Away teams are 81-67-4 ATS while away favorites are 33-23-2
- Favorites are 77-71-4 ATS while home favorites are 44-48-2
- The Detroit Lions, who are among the Super Bowl odds favorites, have the best ATS record (7-2)
I could easily blame Baker Mayfield for his late-game sorcery, Jake Moody or Younghoe Koo for missing three field goals apiece, or Matthew Stafford for failing to hit a wide-open Kyren Williams late in the fourth quarter, but I won't.
I'll take my lumps and losses along with the other 11 Week 10 favorites. With that, it's onward and upward for our NFL Week 11 picks against the spread for every game.
The below picks are part of our NFL Week 11 predictions.
NFL ATS picks Week 11: Every game
NFL odds via FanDuel and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Commanders vs. Eagles (-3.5) | Eagles (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jaguars vs. Lions (-13.5) | Lions (-13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Packers (-5.5) vs. Bears | Packers (-5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rams (-4.5) vs. Patriots | Patriots (+4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Browns vs. Saints (-1.5) | Saints (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vikings (-6.5) vs. Titans | Vikings (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Colts vs. Jets (-3.5) | Colts (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Raiders vs. Dolphins (-7.5) | Dolphins (-7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ravens (-3.5) vs. Steelers | Steelers (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers (-6.5) | Seahawks (+6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Falcons vs. Broncos (-1.5) | Falcons (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chiefs vs. Bills (-1.5) | Chiefs (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bengals (+1.5) vs. Chargers | Bengals (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texans (-7.5) vs. Cowboys | Texans (-7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
My favorite ATS picks this week
NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Jaguars vs. Lions (-13.5)
Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%
I like the idea of laying almost two scores on a home favorite about as much as guzzling a jug full of concentrated salt water. However, this matchup is set up for a lopsided result. The Lions won in Houston despite trailing by 16 points at halftime and seeing their MVP odds contender Jared Goff throw five picks.
While it would be a perfect contender for a letdown spot for many teams, I don't think that applies to Dan Campbell's squad. If anything, that type of result should galvanize the collective even more.
The Lions dominated their last two home games, winning by an average of 25.5 points. Yes, one was against the lowly Tennessee Titans, a result that should be taken with one of the grains of salt I'll be drinking if the Lions don't cover. That said, the Jaguars will probably be without Trevor Lawrence for a second straight game.
Their ability to keep things close, particularly at Ford Field, depends on his participation. Frankly, with nothing to play for but draft capital, I can't see them risking their franchise quarterback. A winning $10 bet will yield a $9.62 profit.
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Packers (-5.5) vs. Bears
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%
The Chicago Bears took that nightmare Hail Mary loss to the Washington Commanders as you would have expected. They lost the two subsequent games by a combined 48-12. I'm pretty sure PTSD from that moment has played a factor in their recent rut.
At least the Bears' return to Soldier Field, where they've won four of five. While that will fill Bears fans with hope, they're about to face a well-rested Green Bay Packers coming off a bye week. I've been stung by the Packers twice before, against the Jaguars and Texans, when they won but just missed covering.
But with all the aforementioned factors, including Chicago firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, I like the prospect of the Packers covering on the third time of asking and winning their 11th straight against their Bears.
A winning $10 bet will yield an $8.47 profit.
Bengals (+1.5) vs. Chargers
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
The Cincinnati Bengals are in last-chance saloon territory, and I'm banking on that level of desperation when they play at SoFi Stadium against one of the league's best defensive teams.
The Los Angeles Chargers allow the fewest points per game (13.1) and still haven't conceded more than 20. The Bengals have the second-best pass attack via PFF (89.8), setting up an intriguing battle against the Chargers' fourth-best coverage unit (80.8).
While the Bengals' offensive line has struggled to protect Burrow, the Chargers' pass rush is ranked 15th, which should provide Burrow slightly more time to find Ja'Marr Chase and Co.
And while Los Angeles has won three in a row, it didn't meet much resistance, beating New Orleans, Cleveland, and Tennessee.
The conditions should be perfect in Los Angeles for Burrow to be the first to score more than 20 points, finding solutions for Jim Harbaugh's water-tight defense. A winning $10 bet will yield a $9.09 profit.
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