Wild Card Weekend Player Prop Picks: Best Odds & Props This Week

First touchdown scorers, receiving props, and a couple of quarterback plays round out our Wild Card Weekend player props.

Mike Spector

Last updated: January 11, 2025 9:25 AM EST • 6 min read

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels runs the ball as we make our Wild Card Weekend player prop picks. — Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels runs the ball against the Dallas Cowboys. Photo by Tim Heitman / Imagn Images.

The NFL playoffs get underway with six wild-card games from Saturday to Monday. I have scoured the data and matchups to come up with our top four NFL Wild Card Weekend player prop picks.

Four of the six games (Steelers-Ravens, Packers-Eagles, Commanders-Buccaneers, Vikings-Rams) are rematches of games played in the regular season
Two rookie quarterbacks (Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels) are making their playoff debuts
The top two favorites by the NFL MVP odds (Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson) are on teams with the two highest point spreads this week

The plays below and our NFL playoff bracket predictions are both part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions.

NFL player prop picks for Wild Card Weekend

NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Saquon Barkley prop pick: Barkley to score the Eagles’ first touchdown (+220 via FanDuel) vs. Packers ⭐⭐⭐
Quentin Johnston prop pick: Under 3.5 receptions (+105 via BetMGM) at Texans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jayden Daniels prop pick: Under 48.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) at Buccaneers ⭐⭐⭐
Sam Darnold prop pick: Over 265.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) at Rams ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Friday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Best NFL player props this week

Saquon Barkley to score the Eagles’ first touchdown ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +220 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 31.25%

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Quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to practice on Wednesday, which is a positive sign that he will clear concussion protocol in time for Sunday’s game.

While we typically worry he will steal goal-line carries, there is a great chance Philadelphia runs him less to be cautious with him after he threw just four total passes in the Eagles’ final three games.

Barkley is well-rested after being given Week 18 off, and in two of the last three games where he ran for 124-plus yards, he failed to score a touchdown.

SAQUON BARKLEY 65-YARD TOUCHDOWN.

📺: #PHIvsNO on FOX
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— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024

There should be positive regression from a touchdown-scoring standpoint for a running back who just ran for the eighth-most yards all-time in a single season.

Barkley’s anytime touchdown scorer odds are juiced as high as -200 (carrying a 66.67% implied probability), so I am opting for a much better payout with Barkley to set the tone as Philadelphia’s first touchdown scorer. A $10 winning wager would pay out $32.

Quentin Johnston Under 3.5 receptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 48.78%

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The Chargers put the pedal to the metal in Week 18, seizing an opportunity to earn the No. 5 seed and face the Texans while avoiding the Ravens this weekend. Johnston had a career day in the process, making him a prime sell-high candidate this week.

Johnston caught 13 of 14 targets for 186 yards, and he had 11 targets where he had three or more yards of separation, per Next Gen Stats.

Johnston has caught four or more passes in four of the last five games, and he's coming off a game where he had a 40% target share and accounted for 50% of the team’s air yards.

Things will tighten up against a Texans team that ranked fifth in total defense and sixth against the pass. In addition, Johnston missed practice with a thigh injury and an illness Wednesday, and a lingering illness should serve as a huge downgrade for the wide receiver.

Under backers are getting a great price at plus-money odds at BetMGM, as DraftKings charges the standard -110 juice to back the Under.

Jayden Daniels Under 48.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Daniels made his NFL debut against the Buccaneers in Week 1, and Tampa Bay blitzed him on 46% of dropbacks.

As a result, Daniels escaped the pocket more and tied for a season-high with 16 rushing attempts. He also had the second-most rushing yards (88) of the season, and it was his only game with two rushing touchdowns.

I respect Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles’ track record against a rookie quarterback, and I am optimistic he will not employ the same strategy that led to such a big day from Daniels with his legs.

Look for Bowles to keep him in the pocket more, and I am making the Under on Daniels’ rushing yards a three-star play, even though he is the only rookie in NFL history to pass for 3,500 yards and rush for 800 yards.

Under backers are getting the best number for this wager at FanDuel, as some of our other best sports betting apps have the O/U set slightly lower at 45.5.

Sam Darnold Over 265.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Many have been critical of Darnold after last week’s performance against the Detroit Lions, when he completed 18-of-41 passes for a season-low 166 yards and zero touchdowns.

However, I am giving Darnold a pass considering the Lions’ brilliant defensive game plan, as Detroit blitzed on a season-high 56% of pass attempts, and got pressure on 42% of those.

I wanted to back Darnold’s Over on 1.5 passing touchdowns, given that he led the NFL through the first 15 games with a 75 QBR, a 70% completion percentage, and a 12% off-target percentage in the red zone.

However, with those odds too steep for my liking (as high as -190 at BetMGM), I am opting for better value, backing his passing yards on a projected total he has surpassed in three of his last six games indoors.

The Over on Darnold’s 270.5-yard passing total is juiced to -115 at some of our best sports betting sites, so I am taking advantage of a slightly better price and number at FanDuel.

Top Wild Card Weekend picks

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”