Top Expert NFL Prop Picks: Week 7

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: October 23, 2021 11:17 AM EDT • 4 min 2 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

There are six teams on a bye in Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season but our betting experts offer up their top team and player prop bet picks to help maximize the Sunday excitement.

Here's a look at the top team and player prop picks for the NFL Week 7 schedule from our team of betting experts.

NFL Team Prop Picks

Green Bay Packers -2.5 first-quarter Spread (-134) - Scott Kacsmar

Detroit Lions Over 16.5 points (-115) - Jason Radowitz

New England Patriots Over 24.5 points (-120) - Swinging Johnson

Tennessee Titans Over 26.5 points (-120) - Kenny Ducey

NFL Player Prop Picks

Anytime touchdown/moneyline parlay – DeAndre Hopkins TD/Arizona Cardinals ML (+105) - Kacsmar

Tom Brady Over 303.5 passing yards (-115) - Radowitz

Michael Carter Under 45.5 rushing yards (-115) - Johnson

Darrell Henderson Jr. Over 20.5 receiving yards (-114) - Ducey

Top Expert Team Prop Picks

Packers -2.5 first-quarter Spread (-134) - Kacsmar

The Washington Football Team is the only team in the NFL this season to trail after the first quarter in all six games. No other team has had more than four such games. In fact, Washington is just the 11th team since 1978 to trail after the first quarter in the first six games of a season.

The Packers have gotten off to some slow starts this season before turning things around to win their last five games; however, I like them to get a fast start at home against a Washington defense that ranks 31st in both yards and points per drive allowed as well as the rate of three-and-outs forced. Washington’s minus-26 scoring differential in the first quarter is second-worst in the league.

Lions Over 16.5 points (-115) - Radowitz

You never know which Lions team you’re going to get. However, if there’s ever a game where the Los Angeles Rams are prepared and ready to go, it’s this one. Lions QB Jared Goff will take on his former team and would like to prove to them that he’s still capable of winning big games. Now, I’m not saying the Lions are going to win this game, but I am saying they're going to start piling up wins eventually. With tough game-ending field goal losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings, the Lions are getting closer. They’ll score at least 17 in this game.

Patriots Over 24.5 points (-120) - Johnson

The New York Jets will travel to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA, to face the New England Patriots, for what should be the latest in a decades-long series of beatings. These teams met earlier in the season when the Patriots handed the Jets a 25-6 loss in their own sandbox.

New England K Nick Folk did much of the heavy lifting and connected on four field goals while the offense scored only two touchdowns. Now I ask you, what has the New York defense done over the last month that would lead anyone to believe it will prevent the Pats from scoring at least that many points this time around? The answer – nothing. Let’s go over 24.5 points for the Patriots team total.

Titans Over 26.5 points (-120) - Ducey

The Kansas City Chiefs are bleeding on defense. They've allowed 29.3 points per game, which ranks 28th in football. Their rushing defense has been particularly dreadful, averaging 5.2 yards per carry against, which is the third-worst mark in the NFL. These are not good prospects when getting set to face the most unstoppable offensive force in football: Titans RB Derrick Henry.

The Titans offense has been very efficient and is fresh off a confidence-building win over the Buffalo Bills. They should come out strong and run up the score in a shootout.

Top Expert Player Prop Picks

Hopkins TD/Cardinals ML (+105) - Kacsmar

The largest spread of the season has Arizona as an 18.5-point favorite against the Houston Texans. A prop that should have no problem hitting is for Hopkins to score a touchdown against his former team and get the win, too. Hopkins and DE J.J. Watt both have to be looking forward to destroying the Texans in this lopsided matchup while Arizona seeks a 7-0 start. Hopkins was shockingly traded to Arizona in 2020 for a meager return while he was still in his prime. He just caught two touchdowns last week and has scored in four out of six games this year.

Hopkins has yet to crack 90 receiving yards in a game this season, but the Cardinals are definitely going to scheme for him to score in this revenge game.

Brady Over 303.5 passing yards (-115) - Radowitz

The Buccaneers are averaging 340.7 yards passing per game. In a game between one of the youngest quarterback and the oldest quarterback in the league, Brady is going to prove he’s still got it with big drives down the field against the Chicago Bears. The Buccaneers rarely run the football and that’s good news when you have the Over for Brady’s passing yards.

Carter Under 45.5 rushing yards (-115) - Johnson

If the Jets are to have any chance against the Patriots this week, QB Zach Wilson is going to have to airmail it early and often once the Pats jump out to a double-digit lead. That will mean that New York will be eschewing the run game and Carters will be doing more pass blocking than running as the lead tailback.

Carter has averaged 31 rushing yards per game which is why I see this player prop of 45.5 yards more than just a bit interesting. This looks like a hot prop to pop so let’s cash a ticket with Under 45.5 rushing yards.

Henderson Over 20.5 receiving yards (-114) - Ducey

Henderson saw the fifth-highest rate of offensive snaps among running backs last week with 82 percent. He further cemented his place as the go-to guy out of the backfield for head coach Sean McVay. Now comes a matchup with the Lions, which should have Henderson licking his chops.

The Lions allowed Cincinnati Bengals RBs Chris Evans and Joe Mixon to combine for eight receptions and 108 receiving yards last week, and the week before that it was Vikings RB Alexander Mattison who burned them for 40 yards on seven grabs.

Henderson is shifty and very effective out of the backfield, averaging 9.9 yards per reception this year, and has made 12 catches through five games. I love this prop.