Ravens vs. Texans Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: Christmas Day
Two teams at the top of their respective AFC divisions do battle on Christmas Day as the Houston Texans host the Baltimore Ravens.
- Baltimore is tied with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North but ESPN Analytics gives the Ravens a 45% chance to win the division
- A loss to the Ravens this week would virtually lock up the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs for Houston
- Baltimore owns a five-game head-to-head winning streak against Houston
Our Ravens vs. Texans prediction expects the road team to cover, as Houston’s injuries will be too much to overcome.
This game caps off the Christmas festivities on Netflix, as the Ravens enter this 4:30 p.m. ET showdown as at least 5-point favorites.
Don't worry, though, this is just the beginning of our NFL Week 17 predictions.
Ravens vs. Texans predictions: Christmas Day
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Ravens -5 (-120 via BetMGM) vs. Texans ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Lamar Jackson Over 45.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ravens vs. Texans ATS prediction: Week 17
Ravens to cover the spread: -5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Baltimore’s ground game continues to dominate
The Ravens outrushed the Steelers 220-117 in Week 16. That marked the 15th straight game in which Baltimore has outrushed an opponent, which is the longest streak in a season all-time.
It was also Baltimore’s 10th game outrushing an opponent by 100 yards, tying the 1949 Eagles for the most such games in NFL history in a single season.
Derrick Henry accounted for 162 of those rushing yards and shattered the 100-yard barrier that he could never eclipse against Pittsburgh until last week.
Henry had been held to 68 or fewer rushing yards in three of the previous five weeks, so it is encouraging for Baltimore backers that he got going in a big way last week. On another short week, the bruising Henry could be a big offensive weapon.
Houston was hit hard by injuries last week
The Texans lost three key starters in last week’s loss to the Chiefs, and the most high-profile one was the season-ending injury that Tank Dell suffered.
Dell contributed 667 receiving yards and three touchdowns this season. But the Texans' offense looked like a shell of itself after he was carted off with a leg injury, scoring three points on three possessions.
Houston’s secondary was also dealt a big blow when safety Jimmie Ward was carted off with a foot injury, and offensive guard Shaq Mason did not return after suffering a knee injury in the first quarter.
Going against history
Houston is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog following a loss, and C.J. Stroud is 6-3 ATS against teams with a winning record when he is an underdog.
However, throw those trends out the window with these teams playing their third games in 11 days. And the Texans are at an even bigger disadvantage with how many injuries they will have to overcome.
BetMGM remains the only one of our best sports betting sites at which one can back the favorites at -5, so that is where I am making my wager despite paying up slightly in juice. Through the -120 odds, a $10 winning wager would return a payout of $18.33.
Ravens vs. Texans best pick
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Lamar Jackson Over 45.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
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The Texans also allowed Patrick Mahomes with a high ankle sprain to rush for 33 yards. On the season, they're allowing 9.3 yards per play to scrambling quarterbacks, which ranks 26th in the league.
Houston figures to blitz often in this matchup, as it entered last week with the best QBR allowed (35), lowest completion percentage allowed (45), and second-highest interception rate (4.7%) when blitzing.
But generating such pressure on Jackson also makes it more likely for him to scramble, and he also should benefit from defensive attention that the Texans will pay to Henry coming off his 162-yard day.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering an O/U of 45.5, as DraftKings, BetMGM, and bet365 are on the high end of the market at 48.5.
Ravens vs. Texans odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Ravens vs. Texans live odds
Ravens vs. Texans opening odds:
- Ravens: -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Texans: +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Ravens vs. Texans injuries
Ravens vs. Texans game info
- When: Wednesday, Dec. 25
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
- How to watch: Netflix
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Ravens -5 (-120 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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